Miami Condo Index – Brickell – June 2007

June 19, 2007

Last week I mentioned that I was planning to create a Miami Condo Index to provide pricing insight to homebuyers in various neighborhoods in Miami and Miami Beach. This week I decided to kick things off with Brickell.

It was difficult to come up with a final list of buildings that should be included in the Brickell index. For example, is Neo Vertika in Brickell or should it be in a different category like West Brickell? Is One Miami part of downtown or should it be grouped with Brickell buildings? After much thought, I decided to include both. There simply aren’t enough buildings of interest in West Brickell or downtown to necessitate a separate neighborhood index for West Brickell and downtown. Eventually, One Miami will be grouped with downtown buildings as more developments are completed north of the Miami River. Another question remained as to whether buildings in Brickell Key should be grouped with buildings in Brickell to create a Brickell/Brickell Key index or should a separate index be created for each? I decided on the latter.

Earlier today, I finished crunching the numbers and evaluated my findings. Much of it was quite shocking. I took 18 prominent buildings in Brickell and created two separate spreadsheets. The first spreadsheet calculated the average price per square foot of units currently listed in the 18 buildings in Brickell. The second calculated the average price per square foot of units that have sold in those 18 buildings in the past six months. I also weighted each building according to how many units they had when compared to the sum of the units of all 18 buildings. This helped to arrive at a more accurate representation of the typical Brickell condo.

First I’m going to show you the average price per square foot of the units currently listed on the market:

• Atlantis on Brickell – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $337.58
• Brickell on the River North – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $461.23
• Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $488.09
• Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $528.19
• Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | $911.38
• Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $390.89
• Jade at Brickell – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $869.51
• Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $409.13
• One Miami -325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $471.98
• Sail on Brickell – 170 SE 14 St | 33131 | $488.42
• Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $768.63
• Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $496.20
• Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $506.38
• The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $657.19
• The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickelly Bay Dr | 33131 | $520.88
• The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $385.93
• Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $410.56
• Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $550.82

Some of those averages shocked the hell out of me. How can condo units at The Club at Brickell Bay have an average list price of over $650 per square foot? (I’ve heard reports of mortgage fraud in that building as well as at Jade and Vue at Brickell.) The average price per square foot for condos currently listed in Brickell using these 18 buildings came out to $536.28. The weight-adjusted average came out to $547.06. The Club at Brickell Bay, with 642 total units, skewed the weight-adjusted average higher than the regular average.

Next we’ll take a look at the average price per square foot in these buildings based on closed sales. Keep in mind that this is the average price per square foot. Condos that have a better view or are on a higher floor than the average condo in the building will obviously have a higher price per square foot. These figures were equally shocking.

• Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $335.12
• Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $411.79
• Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $417.82
• Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $519.72
• Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | $763.51
• Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $319.56
• Jade – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $668.23
• Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $383.23
• One Miami -325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $458.56
• Sail on Brickell – 170 SE 14 St | 33131 | $335.05
• Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $606.44
• Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $471.39
• Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $436.21
• The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $634.15
• The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickelly Bay Dr | 33131 | $506.81
• The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $350.88
• Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $316.62
• Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $556.59

Condo units at The Club at Brickell Bay had a higher average price per square foot than condos at Santa Maria when looking at closed sales. I had to double check my work once I saw that, but everything checked out.

I tried to eliminate any data that was irregular. For example, in the past six months Pharrell Williams purchased developer Ugo Colombo’s Penthouse unit at Bristol Tower for $13,950,000, or over $1,500 per square foot. I discarded it because it was deemed irregular.

The average price per square foot for these 18 buildings, based on closed sales, came out to $471.76. The weight-adjusted average came out to $495.13.

Using both data sets I also wanted to figure out how overpriced listings are in Brickell when compared to what they actually sell for, on average. I also was curious to find out which buildings were the most overpriced. Here is the data below:

• Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 0.73%
• Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | 12.01%
• Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 16.82%
• Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | 1.63%
• Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | 19.37%
• Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 22.32%
• Jade – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 30.12%
• Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | 6.76%
• One Miami -325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | 2.93%
• Sail on Brickell – 170 SE 14 St | 33131 | 45.78%
• Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 26.74%
• Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 5.26%
• Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | 16.09%
• The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | 3.63%
• The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickelly Bay Dr | 33131 | 2.78%
• The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 9.99%
• Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | 29.67%
• Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | -1.04%

On average, condo units at The Sail on Brickell have a list price that is 45.78% higher than the average sales price of units sold in the past six months. Either owners of units in that building have unrealistic expectations or agents conducting business there have not provided their clients with an accurate comparable market analysis.

On average, Brickell condo listings were priced 13.98% over the average sales price of units sold in the past six months in these 18 buildings. When using a weighted average, the typical Brickell condo is overpriced by 10.48%. The weighted average is lower because most of the large differences occur in smaller buildings such as The Sail on Brickell.

Keep in mind that statistical data is never perfect. It grows more accurate as additional data is incorporated. The same holds true for a major league baseball player. The first five at-bats in his major league career won’t dictate how the rest of his major league career will fair. The Miami Condo Index will shed more light as time goes on and patterns and trends begin to emerge in the data.

In the next two weeks I will reveal the findings for Brickell Key and South Beach. I will follow-up each neighborhood index report with a post highlighting any fantastic deals that I come across in the buildings covered.