Brickell Condo Index – October 2007

October 18, 2007

As I mentioned in a previous post, The Sail on Brickell will no longer be included in the Brickell Condo Index. I also made a change to the way that the statistics in the third section of the index are presented. It should now be much easier to make sense of the monthly figures. This came as a suggestion from a reader (Thank you!). My comments on this month’s numbers are also found towards the bottom of this post.

The average price per square foot of condos listed has dropped this month to $518.91 from last month’s figure of $525.88. Last month, The Sail on Brickell had an average list price of $507.11 per square foot, so the drop would have been greater had it been included this month and its average remained around the same. The weight-adjusted average also dropped to $521.29 per square foot from last month’s figure of $530.15.

Average price per square foot of units currently listed on the MLS:

• Atlantis on Brickell – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $319.50
• Brickell on the River North – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $440.51
• Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $485.19
• Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $516.72
• Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | $883.73
• Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $396.73
• Jade Brickell – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $804.23
• Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $408.09
• One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $458.17
• Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $734.02
• Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $489.21
• Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $536.40
• The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $595.99
• The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $488.95
• The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $365.08
• Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $429.06
• Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $469.93

The average price per square foot of condos sold over the past six months actually went up this month to $481.69 from last month’s figure of $467.47. The increase would have been less had The Sail on Brickell been included. Last month, it had an average of $386.41 per square foot. If its statistic remained the same, the average would have been $476.39 per square foot. Much of the increase is also attributed to The Mark on Brickell which I will discuss below. The weight-adjusted average went up to $495.31 per square foot from last month’s average of $486.30.

Average price per square foot of Brickell condos sold in the MLS within the past six months:

• Atlantis on Brickell – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $298.11
• Brickell on the River North – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $415.74
• Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $440.18
• Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $523.78
• Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | $675.30
• Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $331.99
• Jade Brickell – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $723.60
• Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $329.67
• One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $430.12
• Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $672.22
• Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $463.75
• Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $454.32
• The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $660.39
• The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $589.06
• The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $388.54
• Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $316.62
• Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $475.30

The numbers below are a bit difficult to read but if you save and open the picture file it should make it easier.

The first column to the right of each condo development’s name is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, found above, expressed as a percentage. You will notice that Emerald at Brickell, The Club at Brickell Bay, The Mark on Brickell, The Palace and Vue at Brickell are the only developments that have a higher average sales price than list price.

The second column is the number of active listings in each development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. I find this to be a healthy number. The ones highlighted in red reveal those developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. This is a very unhealthy figure and should act as a warning sign. Is it coincidence that Jade, The Club at Brickell Bay and Vue at Brickell, which have all been riddled by mortgage fraud appear in red? I think not! I think this statistic is highly important. It provides great insight as to which condo developments will be next to have price cuts and those that may actually go up in price in the coming months. A leading indicator, if you may.

The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales within the past month. As I mentioned, last month a large portion of the pending sales at The Club at Brickell Bay are very old. Only three of them have been pending for five months or less. It is good to see, however, that each development has at least one pending sale. The number of closed sales within the past month has dropped to seven, which is its lowest point since I began tracking this statistic. Not good…not good at all!

The sixth column show you the difference in the average list prices from this month’s and last month’s, expressed a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green show those that had an increase. As you see, The Vue at Brickell had a price drop for condos listed of 8.57 percent. Much of this is attributed to the ever-growing number of short-sale and foreclosure units in the building. In fact, I have counted 24 units in the MLS that fit this bill. That represents 7.43 percent of the overall building. Yikes!

The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from this month’s and last month’s expressed as a percentage. The 17.54 percent price increase over last month’s statistic at The Mark on Brickell jumped out at me. Of course, I had to investigate. The good news is that I didn’t find any fraudulent transactions that have occurred within the last month. Thank God! The bad news, however, is that I did discover two transactions that closed in June that I didn’t notice before that appear to be fraudulent. You be the judge! A 2 bedroom/2 bath with 1,200 square feet that was listed at $890,000 closed for $845,000, or $704 per square foot, on June 30, 2007. Another 2 bedroom/2 bath also with 1,200 square feet that was listed for $850,000 closed for $840,000, or $700 per square foot, on June 6, 2007. In each case, the listing agent was also the buyer’s agent. In the second case, the unit previously closed in January of this year for a price of $560,000. Looks like fraud, smells like fraud…what do you think? The average price increase also became more pronounced at The Mark on Brickell because a few other sales that sold in the $300’s and $400’s per square foot fell off the average.

The large drop in prices, over the past month for condos sold over the previous six months, at Neo Vertika were mainly a result of the unit that my client closed on a few weeks ago for $242 per square foot.