Brickell Condo Index – November 2007
November 25, 2007 by Lucas Lechuga
The following data was collected on November 18, 2007. It took me a while to get everything up due to the holiday and work. I made a correction to October's data. The average price per square foot of closed sales over the previous six months at Vue at Brickell was previously stated at $364.32. The correct figure should have been $469.93. The correction has been made and the overall average for closed sales in Brickell was adjusted to $481.69 instead of $475.16.
The average price per square foot of condos listed has once again dropped this month to $512.14 from last month's figure of $518.91. The weight-adjusted average also dropped to $509.24 per square foot from last month's figure of $521.29.
Average price per square foot of units currently listed on the MLS:
- Atlantis on Brickell - 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $314.80
- Brickell on the River North - 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $430.01
- Bristol Tower - 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $490.91
- Emerald at Brickell - 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $519.16
- Four Seasons Residences - 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | $898.80
- Imperial at Brickell - 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $391.98
- Jade at Brickell Bay - 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $798.28
- Neo Vertika - 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $400.71
- One Miami - 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $453.25
- Santa Maria - 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $716.75
- Skyline on Brickell - 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $473.20
- Solaris at Brickell - 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $579.18
- The Club at Brickell Bay - 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $549.71
- The Mark on Brickell - 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $456.30
- The Palace - 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $359.67
- Villa Regina - 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $432.20
- Vue at Brickell - 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $441.48
Someone recently commented that the average price per square foot of closed sales statistic doesn't provide much insight due to the lack of activity in the Miami real estate market. This is quite true. List prices need to come down more in order for buyers to be enticed into buying. The condos that have been selling lately are the ones that are aggressively priced. Once each building has at least 5 or more closed sales then the average will begin to show more insight. Below you will see the total number of closings within the past six months in each condo development:
As you can see all of the buildings except One Miami and Neo Vertika have 4 or less closings. The lack of closed sales doesn't make for an informative average. Nonetheless, I will continue to provide this statistic in hopes that the peak-season months will bring in more closed sales. I have definitely seen more interest within the past couple of weeks. The average price of condos sold over the past six months has gone down to $472.80 from last month's figure of $481.69. Emerald at Brickell hasn't had any closed sales within the past six months. The drop would have been less if the average for Emerald at Brickell would have remained the same at $523.78. If that were the case then the average price of condos sold over the past six months in Brickell would have been $475.80.
Average price per square foot of condos sold in the MLS within the past six months:
- Atlantis - 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $283.10
- Brickell on the River - 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $400.00
- Bristol Tower - 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $425.96
- Emerald at Brickell - 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | N/A
- Four Seasons Residences - 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | $680.57
- Imperial at Brickell - 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $331.99
- Jade - 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $723.60
- Neo Vertika - 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $332.27
- One Miami - 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $424.36
- Santa Maria - 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $682.23
- Skyline on Brickell - 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $391.91
- Solaris at Brickell - 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $422.66
- The Club at Brickell Bay - 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $684.44
- The Mark on Brickell - 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $575.90
- The Palace - 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $395.54
- Villa Regina - 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $403.39
- Vue at Brickell - 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $406.92
Below you will find some additional statistics:
As with last month, the first column to the right of each condo development's name is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, expressed as a percentage. The Club at Brickell Bay, The Mark on Brickell and The Palace are the only developments that have a higher average sales price than list price. The former two have questionable closed sales included in the six month average.
The second column is the number of active listings in each development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. I find this to be a healthy number. The ones highlighted in red reveal those developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. I would stay away from these condo developments and others that approach the 20 percent mark. The condo developments with active listings less than 10 percent are considered very safe, in my opinion, and anything in the 10-15 percent range is considered normal, even in a healthy market.
The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales within the past month. The number of pending sales has dropped this month to 49 from last month's figure of 51. The number of closed sales within the past month has remained the same at 7, which is still the lowest that I've seen in Brickell within one month since I've been tracking this statistic.
The sixth column show you the difference in the average list prices from this month’s and last month’s, expressed a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green show those that had an increase. As you can see, listings at Solaris at Brickell had an increase of 7.47 percent within the past month. Much of this increase is attributed to a new listing that is listed at $904 per square foot! What are they thinking? What I find to be particularly funny is that it says "Owner Hardly Motivated" in the broker remarks. Why even list it then? It is a one bedroom with 730 square feet listed for $660,000. I'm going to keep my eye on this one because I wouldn't be surprised to see it under contract by the wrong type of buyer.
The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from this month’s and last month’s, expressed as a percentage. The 15.49 percent price decrease at Skyline on Brickell is mainly attributed to a closed sale at a high price per square foot that dropped off the average. The large 27.41 percent price increase at Villa Regina is legitimate. There have been two closed sales in the building within the past month and one of them was a 3,060 square foot 3 bedroom/3.5 bath condo with a direct bay view that sold for $1,480,000, or $484 per square foot.
I think next month we'll see more activity. I did notice that Jade had 2 closed sales on November 20, 2007. Those transactions will appear on next month's Brickell Condo Index.
Thanks for the update, Lucas.
That’s a very strange story about the Solaris listing: last month, the Solaris had 21 listings at an average PSF price of $454. One closed this month.
Now they have an additional 8 listings (& have just exceeded the 20% of all units for sale red-lighted danger mark) and some goon is listing an apartment for $904/PSF, with “Owner hardly motivated” in the broker’s remarks?
In other words, a condo that should have listed (at $454 PSF, last month’s average) at $330k MAX (lower if the owner wanted to sell), is being listed at twice the price. That’s not going to move, and I don’t care if it has titanium walls and floors and ceilings.
I can think of only two reasons for this listing: a) someone trying to manipulate the avg PSF price in the listings (unlikely?); or b) the usual. It will suddenly close with the same broker on both sides, after a hard-negotiated $20K off the ask.
If the latter is the case, I hope you report it to that new fraud squad.
Have you ever condidered dropping the sales you consider fraudulent from the indexes? Admittedly, it a subjective decision,but it might make the data more useful. You could even display both sets of stats – the reported index, and the Lucas(c) index.
I would be as wary of a building with only, say 10%, of units listed for sale, as one with 20%+, if I knew that many of the closings on the first building were fraudulent and would eventually result in foreclosures, short sales, and way lower prices.
JM,
The first month that I started the Brickell Condo Index I did drop the sales that I considered fraudulent from the index but I then decided to go back and add them back in, and for each month thereafter, because it shows the market for what it is. I think including them in the statistics and discussing them has provided more awareness to the problem.
I don’t know of any short-sales or foreclosures in Four Seasons, Santa Maria and Villa Regina. I know of one at Imperial at Brickell.
Any numbers on the Brickell Key market? I heard some stories Friday about several people willing to take $200k for a one bedroom. These numbers don’t look right based on what I am hearing.
Antonio – I checked all of the listings in the Brickell Key buildings and didn’t see one that was offered for $200,000. Maybe the units that you heard about are from For-Sale-By-Owners.
Well.. actually.. its what I heard on the street. There was a unit for sale at Isola for $199k (9th floor), and there is a unit at BKII in the $250s, but I hear it will go for $200k.
The Isola unit went fast, because I knew someone who was interested and when they called it was sold. Direct waterfront.
FYI – I think you are doing a great service. I am enjoying reading your analysis.
[…] fraud” buildings in Brickell have come down BIG since November 2007. The last time I did a Brickell Condo Index was November 2007. Last Tuesday, I pulled some new data. I haven’t had the time to reveal a full-blown monthly […]
[…] fraud” buildings in Brickell have come down BIG since November 2007. The last time I did a Brickell Condo Index was November 2007. Last Tuesday, I pulled some new data. I haven’t had the time to reveal a full-blown monthly […]
What’s up with this “Real Estate on Credit” site “blogging” the same thing Lucas wrote back on March 25? It just copies Lucas’ copywrited post, and passes it off as their own.
[…] Brickell Condo Index is back! I was shocked to see that it’s been six months since I last provided an update to what used to be a monthly report. Those who’ve been around long enough to remember those […]
[…] It’s been three months since I last released the Brickell Condo Index. The last update for Brickell condos was published in August 2008. The data used to create the statistics below was collected on November 18, 2008 from the MLS. You may want to also compare the statistics below to those published a year ago in November 2007. […]