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Any more pics, the views, what floor, etc.? Can you put up a b-ball hoop or are there people below that would get annoyed by the dribbling?
I love the polished concrete floors.
no offense, but this is like paying $220,000 to live in Detroit….
The polished concrete floor is just like what they have at the newer Super Wal-Marts including the one on 163rd. Maybe they will put those floors in when they open the new Wal-Mart near the downtown condos so when you go shop there AJ you can pretend you’re in one of these new fashionable lofts instead and then pretend the grocery area is the really big kitchen complete with stainless steal appliance and a bunch of flat screen TV’s in the electronics section.
I am looking in a totally different part of Miami to buy, but Lucas, that loft place does look pretty cute. From the inside, no idea about the area.
Also that price is not bad, maybe its the lowest these places will go for now?
With the polished floors, some of the retail shops in London have them, the arty boho ones.
Very nice loft, love the finishes. Too bad the neighborhood is absolutely horrible. I would not feel safe going for a walk around the block after the sun went down. I wish there was something like this around Brickell.
Kelly Thomas………if you wait till next month………you will be able to BUY this one for $$170K GUARANTEED. That according to AJ your resident R.E. MAN
Mr J L Whinston, thanks, I do think it is a lovely condo, from the inside, it is not the area we are looking to purchase, for me, I think regardless of the price, the location is what is most important to us.
I find it hard to believe that in a month it would be worth $50k less, that is a rather large drop.
That building is in Overtown, a blighted area that is extremely poor and full of drugs and prostitution. It’s not extremely dangerous during the day, but once the sun goes down, good luck.
And $654 a month in maintenance? What a rip off. Add that to the mortgage, taxes and insurance – and you’re paying through the nose.
Great Loft! For people who understand and appreciate high walls and can decorate them, work with space it is a great possibility. For a designer/artist it is a great place to work for a pretty modest price.
Can anyone tell me what the details are on this:
Condo Meltdown
Buyers at Brickell Icon sue to leave deals, recoup money
By: Paola Iuspa-Abbott and Terry Sheridan
The buyers of units at the three-tower Brickell Icon are seeking to recover $13.7 million in down payments on condos with purchase prices totaling $68.4 million.
i’ve always been a big fan of this building. i haven’t seen this particular unit, but this floorplan is great (if you like lofts). i’ve nearly pulled the trigger several times with other listed units in the buildings, but everytime, i step out on the balcony and it brings me back to earth.
yes RT, you can definitely put a hoop up in there. and lala, i don’t know many artists that could afford this place once you throw in the HOA and taxes.
btw, this unit does not face the cemetary (the 08 units do).
artists are absolutely the worst people to live among. they play music at all hours and never understand why those with jobs/responsibility would actually want to sleep at 2am.
jcrimes,
It does face the cemetery. In most buildings, the odd numbers face one direction and the even numbers face the opposite direction. This is not the case at Parc Lofts. Units 206, 207 and 208 all face north.
This is one of the few units where the owner was not required to install soundproofing because it is located on the second floor directly above the parking garage.
I would definitely put in a b-ball hoop then…..cool. That also explains the floors. Thanks.
oh…that’s not good.
lucas – does it have the lift to allow for two parking spots? i know some of the units have that add on.
they have a very special kind of valet…they’re called car jackers
Some guy – the question is do you have to tip them or is it included in your monthly condo fees?
Awesome unit. I love the look but cannot bring myself to risk my life living there. I would pay this price and then some for this same unit on Brickell Ave or in Park West, just not in the heart of the hood.
H O O D L I F E
If I were a rapper then I would totally love this place.
You could thug in the streets then retreat to this beautiful space.
I could also afford the maint. fees. $$$$$
“The Rose That Grew From Concrete”
Property Values have halved and still going down, stocks have halved and still going down, commodities have halved and still going down….cash IS king right now (for those that have survived this onslaught). This has hit every investor except those that never entered these markets at which point they where probably seeing mediocre yields on their investments anyway but at least preserved capital. I am sure there are those, but are far in-between, that repeated the profits of the real estate boom and/or other markets and got out in time and didn’t invest that money on the next big thing but instead smartly or perhaps just luckily left their money in cash. I wasn’t on that “lucky” boat (there are many on this board that will say they were the smart ones and got out in time many of them were either just lucky or straight out lying). I think what bothers me the most is not the hundreds of thousands I have lost in realestate or the hundreds of thousands I lost in the stock market, I think what bothers me the most is instead of spending and splurging my good fortune on things I wanted, things that would have brought be great joy such as Ferrari’s and Lamborghini’s amongst other things (yes, I’m materialistic get over it) that by the way have also plummeted in value in the past 6 months. I was the sensible, responsible person so I did the “smart” thing and invested more. Look where that philosophy got me! I’m really lost right now do you sell off everything and take the major hit and get out because we all know everything is still going to go down but then risk losing out on the rebound or do you stay in hoping things wont get too much worse and wait for the rebound? I tell you though those who are able to keep their jobs and money will be better off next year the deflation is coming and it will come strong our dollars will stretch like nothing before( I personally don’t think a 1 to 1 euro/usd is far fetched), I also strongly feel gold will plummet. Those with money will feel richer next year. The question we need to ask ourselves is this…keeping in mind everything is cyclical, when will all this reverse, when will all this money being printed and dumped into the economy bring on inflation? There is no denying all this tampering with trillions of dollars will bring inflation. We seem to be in a time where everything over corrects. The day this happens everything will reverse cash will be a losing asset and only those with, property, gold, stocks ect will be able to keep up. When will this happen I really don’t know, but things change suddenly and quickly.
RG – Yep, I wasn’t a toy buyer either….but those that did “buy” might be giving them back if they hadn’t already. I was prudent-lucky…..it is a mixture of both. I had only 30% exposure of net assets to stocks….well, those have gone down like everyone else’s have. You may want to think of a tax move while keeping your exposure to stocks if you have a long long time horizon. You can sell one fund by company X and then buy a similar fund by company Y and take the tax loss this year to offset gains/income. Then after a full 30 days in between you can reverse it back if you like and take the additional loss or gain as the case may be (know and understand the wash sale rule). I have waited over 22 months to invest more into stocks….but the environment was not good and I am more conservative than most so would dollar cost average more in on the dips (yes it can be done) but the macro economic factors kept me from putting too much in…..I put a little more in this first quarter, wasn’t a good move now. Cash is king today and next year, after that we’ll see. Residential real estate will probably be a dog for the next decade in real dollar terms…but like every investment the purchase price is your smartest move since that is the only time you have real control …. whether to enter that market and at what price, since once you decide to get out you might not have control over when and definite at what price. I am starting to see real concern among the “wealthy” as the asset deflation in real dollar terms financed with nominal dollar debt takes reality by the horns. I’d probably just do the mutual fund tax shuffle for those investment not in tax sheltered retirement accounts. All hope is not lost….we’re all just in for a long adjustment period.
Funky.
Jcrimes,
You always mix LARA and I up…I refrained from commenting. I think it’s great if you are a pioneer…but we all had this discussion numerous times and it’s tired.
la la
what’s tiring? i’m pointing out that based on the listed price, hoa and taxes, the place still ain’t cheap for the artsy fartsty crowd. it’s quite relevant to the topic, no?
i’m sorry i keep in mixing your anonymous internet name up.
been wondering what is the best investment asset class to have over the next few years of asset deflation. real estate and equities are going to be bad. holding debt will be even worse (some consider this an asset if the debt collateral is actually expected to increase in value). the dollar will eventually get pounded due to the massive influx of liquidity recently. most material items (inventory) such as electronics, cars, etc are going to lose value due to the deflation. once real estate does bottom it may be a place to park some money long term.
but the best asset class to cultivate to me appears to be an education. those who can actually produce on the job (rather than highly overpaid managers) will be in demand and command salary value over the next decade. health care, scientists, engineers and others in the research and development or design arena will be far better off than financial workers, advertising, managers, etc. will be an interesting change in workplace environment over the next decade.
I just received an offer for the full bank approved price.
RG,
Actually, the statement “I am sure there are those, but are far in-between, that repeated the profits of the real estate boom and/or other markets and got out in time and didn’t invest that money on the next big thing but instead smartly or perhaps just luckily left their money in cash. I wasn’t on that “lucky” boat (there are many on this board that will say they were the smart ones and got out in time many of them were either just lucky or straight out lying)” does NOT cover ALL possibilities; many have made TONS of money in the past year.
It was there for the taking.
By the way, they posted exactly what they were about to do last June in various blogs being very specific on exactly what they were doing that week, for next week, month etc.
–
The Panic of 2008
The Grand Depression
Started with the Crash of ‘05
The Rolling Oughts
Began with the Tech Bubble of 1999
The Great Recession
Could be the best-case scenario
A Hornswaggle built on the backs of humanity
Trillions bilked away in The Pyramid Scheme of The Ages
The Late Escape
Stands as the endeavor of last resort
The Eleventh Hour Resurrection
Yet vies for its own benediction
“I just received an offer for the full bank approved price.” Wow that’s great. It wasn’t me…. 🙂 But maybe they will throw in a b-ball hoop.
Parc Lofts are going to be right next to the Bayview Market starting construction early next year with Lowes and Publix (?) and some other big names. Maybe if the Terra/McLatchy deal falls thorough with the City Square project, Walmart may latch on to the Bayview Market too.
In 3 years, the “hood” wont be there anymore east of the tracks. Every major event destination is a few blocks away including the waterfront Pace Park and Opera House. In 10 years, the same loft will be untouchable. I am not surprised to see a full price offer to this loft.
Contingent on if they can get 140% financing and withdraw the extra 40% at closing for necc. “repairs”. 8^)
AJ, rich people aren’t coming to Miami, they are leaving or more to the point, they werent’ every really here… only leveraged 20% deposits were ever here. The Hood has a better chance of moving East than new well off settlers coming in and moving West. BTW, where do you want all of Miami’s ghetto to move to? What happened to the Yes We can vibe? You want to keep shoving poor people away from the City core into a more ghetto version of the ghetto?
Also, Pace Park is not a destination. It might be if you live a block away. I honestly never even heard of the place till this blog and I am positive most everybody in Miami wouldn’t have a clue where it is. Jimbo’s on the other hand….
RT- I’m thinking of going all liquid next week stock wise. Will wait it out and see. If Citi goes or 1 of the big 3 there will be some serious market moving. I highly doubt we will see any real rally within the next 2 months. I have an attorney fighting to get me out of my trump towers, icon, and loft contracts will wait to see how that goes. By the way I heard the same tower 3 will be rentals so say bye bye to unit values there. The developer will over saturate and under cut the rental prices which will then cause unit values to fall even lower really sucks as I have a lot of friends that wouldn’t cut their losses and decided to close, luckily they can handle such a hit although it still stings. As far as properties I closed on unfortunately I’m stuck with those even at a 30% loss I cant sell them. Who can compete with all these short sales and foreclosures! If prices continue to decline which they will and more people loose there jobs which will happen more people will decide to walk away further escalating this viscous cycle. I hope these programs designed to keep homeowners in their homes work otherwise there is no end in sight to these declines. It used to bother me that people that really didn’t need the money would become delinquent and qualify for these programs but honestly we are on the brink of a real melt down. We have to keep in mind the greater good. Looks like I will have to keep renters just like you living there for half off! I loose the equivalent of paying for a Ferrari payment without the Ferrari…..nice.
Muir- Please elaborate, and which blogs are you referring too sounds interesting.
Wow, that link that JL posted is a real eye opener! Hundreds of people suing to get a portion of deposits back. What we know about is only scratching the surface. How bad is it when you sue to get back 25K of the 100K you put down. Have these units really dropped more than 100K since contract signing? I really feel for these people. 75K is a lot of dough to most anyone.
RG – Sorry to hear about the condos….hopefully the developer didn’t live up the contract and you can walk away…they’d hold you to it so hold them to it too. I have heard from multiple people…could be same rumor….that TT3 will be all rentals or hotel like. TT1 always looks dead, very very dead at night. I don’t think anyone is living in TT2 yet…someone said permit problem or something. Surprisingly I have seen a few more lights on in the north Turnberry Ocean Colony, not a lot, but a few more than before. The biggest indicator is the beach service…few lounge chairs and usually no one there anyway. The Oceania’s usually have a modest group including the old guy that plays a bongo with the pretty younger woman (like I Dream of Jennie lady) that does the hoola hoop…she is talented, must have been some sort of dancer or performer or cheerleader type. I’ll have to check out the Trump Towers for rentals…. I think the real estate meltdown has already arrived though. We’re not going to see $100/s.f. on the beach in new buildings, but $300 is reasonable ….seen it already in a few. One indicator will be closing rates in Jade Beach….expensive but with an impressive entrance….one of the best….love the waterfall and the curves, whoever designed it did a great job. Best wishes.
JL,
1% of every building in Miami, Old and New should be reserved for the ghetto displaced. That way we can really redistribute the poverty (if not wealth).
Pace Park is the Best kept secret in Miami. Only a few informed people know about it and it is better that way. Alas, the secret will not be hidden for too long. Even now, while it is still under wraps and relative obscurity, the basket ballers, foot ballers are fighting to stake the time slots. Weekend picnickers upto 5 seperate groups are frolicking in the park at the same time, considering that there are only a maximum of 7 picnic spots that can be rented out at any given time. These people come from very very far off suburbs to picnic at the water front park . The picnickers and the players come as far as 25 miles away considering that there is no other accessible water front park in all of Miami (So much for your one block theory). Last but not the least, 3 out of 4 dog runners in the park are from Brickell!!! Go Figure.
I have one thing to say to all these arm chair commentators, get off your arses and take a tour of some Miami areas before making half arse comments based on some second hand information you read off the internet. It is such a shame that many full time residents on this blog do not know Miami half as much as a New Yorker. When ever I am there I explore the city street by street, block by block on Foot, on Bicycle, By Bus, By Train and By Car. Looked at every n’hood from Cutler Ridge to San Souci Estates and all the way west to Doral. Some people are not sincere and just pretenders.
RG & Tom
Miyanville Itulip HBB…
–
Really anybody that saw this coming and was ready to short the market, Lowes, Home Depot, Merril, Citi, Bears, Countrywide…. ANYTHING, furniture stores, just make a list of all failed companies.
Really it was easy, sooooooooo easy……
I mean, all you really had to do was see it as a bubble figure out who would get hurt first and short it when it started to burst.
This was the important part of the sentence above: “short it when it started to burst.”
Not before.
The trend is your friend.
Hell, this guy in Cali had a hedge fund that was shorting housing derivatives and CDOs, his customers made a 1000% return in a year.
The he closed the fund and sent a letter about freeing pot and that he would get out of the business and how stupid Wall Street was. It was quite a riot!
Unfortunately for you he mentioned the following: “the low hanging fruits have been picked.”
–
As far as luck, sorry, I disagree, I sold my home in Dec 04 in the Gables, that’s how sure I was that it was a bubble.
–
Finally, right now is not the time to worry about returns on investments/capital; rather, worry about the return of the investment/capital.
Then, make sure this deflation/disinflation continues, because if it changes (though it isn’t doing that now) and the US dollars become worthless, kiss your ass goodbye.
–
bundle of fun,aren’t I?
🙂
AJ ,
“1% of every building in Miami, Old and New should be reserved for the ghetto displaced. That way we can really redistribute the poverty (if not wealth).”
–
I hope that was a joke to rile up Tom.
Really, I do.
For your sake.
(and I voted for BO)
Post #39 – Yep, AJ is a realtor….rarely read such dribble except on property listings.
RT,
“Post #39 – Yep, AJ is a realtor….rarely read such dribble except on property listings.”
🙂
Ok’s jus the man! (I got a laugh out of that)
–
AJs #29
“Pace Park is the Best kept secret in Miami. Only a few informed people know about it and it is better that way. Alas, the secret will not be hidden for too long. Even now, while it is still under wraps and relative obscurity, the basket ballers, foot ballers are fighting to stake the time slots. Weekend picnickers upto 5 seperate groups are frolicking in the park at the same time, considering that there are only a maximum of 7 picnic spots that can be rented out at any given time. These people come from very very far off suburbs to picnic at the water front park . The picnickers and the players come as far as 25 miles away considering that there is no other accessible water front park in all of Miami (So much for your one block theory). Last but not the least, 3 out of 4 dog runners in the park are from Brickell!!! Go Figure.”
–
(I thought he was just trying to rile you up, get a rise out of you)
Would not be caught dead anywhere “Pace Park” after sundown. Crappy area no matter how much in denial some people are
H = yoda
JL
Jimbo’s? Damn and I thought I was the only one to ever visit Jimbo’s. You talk about edgy! But I guess thats why I like Downtown Miami so much.
Jimbo’s for the uninitiated is kinda like Miami’s version of Deliverance. But dam – the ambiance and food are sweet and delicious. Dolphins swimming in a lagoon nearby where rednecks share a table with Sobe fashion models. Only in Miami!
Take a left near the Miami Sequarium and just keep goin and dont expect any signs to guide you or air conditioning either.
AJ,
I have tended to disagree with some of your arguments on here in the past, but i typically was interested in what you had to say because you appear knowledgeable of some real estate issues. But some posts by others alluding to you being in the real estate business are troubling. You really should clear that up. I am not pushing for people to reveal personal info on this blog, but if you are spouting very optimistic real estate advice while working in the real estate business, you have no credibility on this blog anymore. And your comments, over time, really do seem to indicate this. Just like my realtor who very recently told me i should buy now before interests rates rise in the near future, increasing demand and prices from our current bottom.
if you are not in the RE business, great, keep providing your point of view. but if you are in the business, shame on you for pushing those views during such a monumental RE disaster, much of which you helped to create. and this goes for anybody else on this blog who comments without disclosing a vested interest in the RE business.
and for full disclosure, i am not in the RE business, nor in the vulture business. i currently do not own RE. i do want to buy in the near term, and look forward to price stability which will allow this to happen. we just need people and policy to let this stability occur, at whatever equilibrium level is needed.
MUIR, RT-There is no question we are in and heading towards more deflation and I agree RE prices will continue to trend downward and possibly even over correct however, lets say this theory about inflation will follow (due to govt printing money, possibly dumping trillions into the economy, dropping interest rates to 0%, and all the other reasons I may be leaving out) wouldn’t that mean that real estate prices will inflate at or near the same pace? There is no reason why real estate would be immune. Surely it would be a far better hedge then keeping cash. Theoretically 2009 should be the time to buy real estate, prices would have come down a bit more and we would be approaching this inflationary period. Unless ofcourse you think something like gold would hedge better.
Gables,
You are a smart guy. Can’t you figure!?
RG,
Everything the pundits ever said all fell by the wayside. Some Nobel Prize winning mathematicians who helped in packaging the mortgage backed securities said that this is fool proof and will never ever fail. They tried to justify the pyramid scheme they are creating by some complex mathematical formulae. But one thing they failed to include in their variables is the human element. That is the big x factor they omitted. Now that they got their arse kicked, the lesson is not lost on these housing bear armchair commentators who are showing all the mathematical reasons and formulas as to why Miami condos are falling into some kind of a bottomless pit. They are also omitting a major x factor. The human element. They are throwing the inventory numbers, economy, job loss, population loss and so on and so forth. But not taking the human emotion or behavior into consideration.
As per all the numbers that they are throwing at us, we should have already been down to 1998 levels. But look where we are. We have not even reached 2004 levels accross the board, let alone 2003 ( I expect prices to bottom out at 2003 levels). The prices would not budge. The only deals are happening where the homeowner got involuntarily foreclosed upon. Anyone else who can afford to pay their mortgage, even if they have to starve themselves are doing so. These guys on this blog will have no explanation as to why would someone do that? They cannot fathom why someone would not rent for 50-60-70% of the total carrying costs and are holding on to their own flats.
Do you know that the prices are stubbornly holding on in most good and desirable buildings? Why is it that MB and 900 will not sell for nothing less tha $500-$600/sf? Do you think these owners do not see the writing on the wall? They do. But they would rather keep their unit than give it away, no matter what is the holding and carrying cost. Explanation – again that unquantifiable human element.
Someone on this blog quoted Forbes
“Vegas is booming, so it will withstand the downturn”
“New York – Greatest City in the World, so same goes there, It is safe”
“Washington DC – Government never gets small, so it wil be OK”
Silly excuses but correct to certain point. But while it comes to Miami, everyone seems to forget one thing. The emotions that the city instils in everyone around the World. If I say that there is no such city in the World which has such a high desirability quotient, most will agree. It is more desirable than the French Riviera, Spanish Riviera, Australia, Brazil or Hawaii or Caribbean. It has an effect on people which cannot be explained or quantified. When these guys are able to factor that elusive human element, they will be able to understand why their predictions will go flat not withstanding 22,000 new flats.
AJ, you seem to have a greater level of intelligence and education than most real estate people i have interacted with. but you also have the smooth talk salesmanship which I tend to find in the sales business, especially auto and real estate. guess that combination makes me err on the side of caution. would like to pay more attention to your thoughts, even if i disagree with some of them. positive viewpoints on the market are welcome if they come from unbiased observers-helps me to gauge the population at large. but right now your input has the appearance of an industry bias that i cant find useful. just trying to keep this blog useful as an unbiased view of the individual readers, and not a pulpit for special interests. that would signal the end of this blog.
increasing unemployment will significantly change the nature of foreclosures in year 2009. the reason people are not selling at firesale prices now, in many new buildings, is that they cannot absorb the loss on the unit in one lump sum. true, many will try to avoid foreclosure at any cost. but they will see a decade of lost investment with capital and debt tied into an illiquid and overpriced condo. however, a long recession will force most of these folks into foreclosure.
this parc loft shows the direction we are headed. still a bit overpriced considering what the future holds, but 1200+ sq ft condos will start to hold in the $200k range-around $150 sq ft. this price point becomes affordable. but those people that bought in substantially higher are stuck with an asset which they cannot sell without taking a loss. this limits their ability to move capital to better investments in the future and will significantly hurt their financial future.
AJ, you have a panicky/desparate tone now and you are mixing outright wrong statements with bizarre ones. I’m not sure what you are looking at but 1/2 the MB condo units are asking around $400 sq/ft now which is down a lot from the beginning of the year and I’m sure you can get them at $350 or under per sq. ft but there’s nobody looking to buy at that price point any way.
I know alot of people driving around in financed $70K cars that would love to sell and finance something cheaper, but guess what, they might still owe $55K on the car and can only sell it now for $40K and they don’t have the extra $15k that would be needed to pay off the bank on a sale… so basically, they are forced to slowly drown making high monthly payments on a luxury item they have to keep because they don’t have the money to be able to cover the shortfall on a sale. I’m not kidding when I say this is the start of bad times in South Florida and not the end. You have a lot of people still remaining in high priced condos and cars that absolutely can not afford to downsize due to the negative equity and thus they are forced to run around month to month until they just run out which is going to happen in the next year.
This is quite the paradox of our times in Miami. You have people with their names on the dotted lines to luxury cars and condos who can NOT afford to go down in lifestyle because they can’t pay off the negative equity so they have to go on as the paper owners of these things till they finally get to 0 in the bank and everything forecloses.
I’m sure this would be extremely odd to a life-long Bible and gun hugging factory worker in a Red State. You have people in Miami driving around in a $70,000 financed S-Class and they don’t have the money needed to downsize to a $20,000 Chevy right now. Same thing is going on with these condos. Some desperate sellers are asking too much because they have no choice. They can only sell it at what they owe and they owe too much.
Lucas, what is it with that ugly-ass duct-taped pipe that dominates the living room? A bit phallic.
I’m a renter who happens to own a condo I don’t want to live in. I’m on both sides of the argument. I know that there is massive deflation going on in rental rates. Good tenants (800 credit score, assets), can virtually dictate their terms right now.
The condo I own rented in 2007 for #1650. I wasted months trying to get anything like that. I settled for $1500, and I expect to have to reduce the rent to $1350 minimum because there is another owner out there asking $1400 for the same model.
My landlord is going to be surprised at what I offer him. $1900 in 2007 (with a broker’s 10%), $1700 this year, no broker. I expect he will accept $1540 next year just to avoid a vacancy or a broker’s fee.
Deflationary spiral.
I
Jamie,
Went through the same process, as i also rent. current contract down 15% from last year, and next year i will probably offer another 15% drop. i am a safe, secure and creditworthy renter and the landlord has few, if any, better options out there. its ironic how the economic downturn has essentially given me a raise! at least until the paycheck stops!
can anybody who currently lives as renter/owner in a building comment on the buildings HOA situation? this is my biggest concern in the coming year when it comes to buying. would be great to get some inside info on whether each building HOA is up to date on costs, or falling behind due to deliquencies.
Gables,
Something interesting in our favorite Coral Gables condo.
The units with the 1300sq + massive 900-1100+ sq ft patios.
They offered me one at $2000!
Yeap, that bldg.
–
I found something else I liked in another bldg, asking 1950, I offered 1700 (3 months, + security + $1000 deposit with HOA)
Owner declined because she was upside down already at 1950.
🙂
Let’s see who wins, I did not counteroffer.
RG
“MUIR, RT-There is no question we are in and heading towards more deflation and I agree RE prices will continue to trend downward and possibly even over correct however, lets say this theory about inflation will follow (due to govt printing money, possibly dumping trillions into the economy, dropping interest rates to 0%, and all the other reasons I may be leaving out) wouldn’t that mean that real estate prices will inflate at or near the same pace?”
–
NO
–
“There is no reason why real estate would be immune. Surely it would be a far better hedge then keeping cash.”
–
RT and I already talked about this once and both agreed, if the land were tied into commodities, e.g. agricultural land, then the answer is yes; however, if you are talking about a condo in Brickell, then, tour shooting the dice at the craps table.
–
“Theoretically 2009 should be the time to buy real estate, prices would have come down a bit more and we would be approaching this inflationary period. Unless ofcourse you think something like gold would hedge better.”
—
Well now…………………………………
I’d like to buy in 09.
I really would.
–
If I knew:
1. How long the deflationary period will last.
2. When the next inflationary period will begin.
3. Which fiat currency will triumph in the next 5 years, or if gold takes precedence.
🙂
Inflation will not be a concern in 2009.
For full disclosure, as I have previously posted, I want to buy…I really really would but two things are preventing this: (1) I am new to the area so don’t know exactly where to buy and (2) continued substantial real estate deflation. I am not a realtor, mortgage broker, or other person that makes commissions off real estate. Nor do I own any real estate investments except perhaps in a broad market ETF that may hold something that I have no specific knowledge of. Now, what is AJ??? I’d like to know.
Real estate would be a good investment if it was income producing…current rents don’t allow for that at all. Rents never got too skewed compared to incomes, prices did because of creative financing, fraud, and low interest rates. Moreover it is simply supply and demand, even in an inflationary environment some things go up and others go down. Where there is an over supply those are things that will continue to go down…regardless of the construction costs which have no bearing in an existing homes over supply market like we are in.
In an inflationary environment you want to hold those assets that are what is driving inflation. Real estate doesn’t appear to be what will drive inflation in 2009.
gables and jamie,
I don’t know where you guys live or how you live. I am renting my downtown 2/2 for $2300 and 1/1.5 Sobe for $1400. My tenants are well settled and hang their pictures on the wall and not stuck in a storage (jcrimes take note). You maybe living out of a suitcase and can move easily. But many tenants are not like that.
I am not offering my tenants 1 penny discount when their leases come up for renewal in July and Sept next year. In fact I will decide by April if I should raise the rent. The most I am willing to give is to keep the rent the same. If they want to leave, I will show them the door.
JL,
the people you described (I call them losers) can be found a lot on the beach and some places in Miami. But there are quite a few regular folks too who has their head screwed on their shoulder. You cannot bunch all together.
And I am not panicky at all. I kept my NYC Jr 1/1 co-op on the market. I dropped the price from 275 to 245. Probably I will settle for 225. But if I do not get a buyer for the next couple of years or more, no sweat. I am making sweet money on the rent and my tenant actually feels that he is the luckiest guy in NYC for snagging my gorgeous river view co-op for a “paltry” 1700 (Incidentally when I placed the ad to rent it on Craigslist, I got 25 calls in the first week and I had to take the ad down). I am not planning to sell either flats in Miami. So how do you think I am desperate or panicky?
Wow AJ, you really are a real estate genius (#62). Maybe you can teach some seminars or infomercials. Are you or aren’t you a realtor or other real estate professional?
AJ, i live comfortably in my unit and have for nearly two years. the problem is, you can demand not to drop your rent (assuming you are not overpriced to begin with), but in particular the rates in the rest of the building will control. i was fair with my landlord and offered the current rental rate in my building, which has dropped significantly. as a landlord you will be subject to the same rules, or you will sit on an empty unit for months and pay additional commission to a RE for the new tenant. landlords have absolutely no leverage in the current market. hope you can sign on a tenant for $2300 soon, because 2b miami condos will be sub $2000 by the end of 2009. remember finance is one of the major economic engines of Miami, and that field is getting decimated. these folks were some of the few who could and would spend that kind of money on a 2b.
Muir, Coral Gables condos are heading for the following rental rates by end of 2009: 1B $1200 and 2B $1700. these prices will also correspond approximately to the new sale value of the units. still some pain to come i am afraid. but this should form a relative bottom for coral gables condos-unless one of the buildings really implodes. keep an eye out on gables marquis regarding this.
gables – The FIRE jobs (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate) are getting hammered. How many mortgage brokers are left? I see a lot of empty store fronts that were once real estate offices and mortgage offices in the area. If the Miami area is highly dependent on these types of jobs for these higher end condos, then there is more pain to go than I had anticipated since the incomes will stagnate or decline and jobs will continue to be lost. If people in these fields don’t contribute directly to company income, then they jobs are at risk. FIRE administrator paper pushers are in trouble.
Also, was in Aventura mall this evening. The place was packed but noticed few people were actually carrying around bags with purchases and those that did only had a bag from one store. Really hadn’t looked at that aspect before so don’t know how it compares to the hey days but sure looked like a lot people with not a lot of buying. THe 4th Q retail numbers will be very telling. The bigger the decline will mean substantial pain but also that people are getting back to saving money.
gables,
I hear you. I want to respond to #64 but it is 5:30 am, I am just back from a party and want to go to sleep. Maybe another time.
You seem to be an upright guy. So I decided to respond to your earlier query #54 about my career eventhough it is nobody’s business. I am a professional DJ and that is how I make my living. I do not have a real estate licence or a broker licence either in the State of Florida or New York.
Hope you are satisfied.
AJ, you quoted a Forbes article that said
“Vegas is booming, so it will withstand the downturn”
I hope you were kidding. I work there half the year and it’s more of a bloodbath than Miami. At least half the homeowners are underwater on their mortgage and retail is getting hammered.
By the way I would be interested to see more about the NY co-op you have for sale, where is it listed?
AJ,
Thanks for the info. Didnt want to be pushy about your other activities, just in RE. Now I view you as an optimistic consumer rather than somebody direct in the industry. Still may disagree with some of your views, but at least i will give them consideration. as a DJ can you get us into one of those hip clubs for a party? just kidding, getting to old for all that. haven’t seen 5:30 am in years 🙂
made a trip to best buy yesterday-first time there in quite a while. they remodeled quite a bit. what was particularly striking was the overabundance of flat screen tv’s throughout the store. i mean everywhere. hundreds. never seen this amount of stock for such an expensive item before. i see a couple of scenarios playing out. they picked up the excess inventory from circuit city bankruptcy and will be offering low prices by end of january with profit by volume. this is there own inventory and are completely screwed if the consumer cuts back on such items. this will happen unless prices fall-and they appear to be doing so. I bought a 32″ tube tv a few years ago for $350. if flat screens go for a similar price, people will buy. but right now they are on sale for $550, not enough to get me to buy.
best buy and its flat screens may provide some insight into where the economy will go over the next 6 months to a year. if they are able to sell off that inventory through the holidays-finances may not be as bad as we thought. but if people begin to buy flat screens, will that lead to them purchasing a condo?
gables – The flat screen TV’s were the hot item last year and is one of the main drivers for people to get into actual physical stores. But the profit margins are getting slim on them….so look for the push on extended warranties, setup packages and accessories such as satellite services, blu-ray player, etc. With everyone going digital next year a lot of people will look to just upgrade to a new TV….picture tubes are out. Unfortunately for Best Buy the consumer is shopped out, online prices are way better, and easy credit has gone away and consumers are trying to cut way back. I suspect you’ll see some really great deals after Christmas as Best Buy will need to move inventory. Wal-Mart is really making a push in big ticket electronics and is gunning for Best Buy, Circuit City, etc. on name brands including Sony but with better prices…. Word is Wal-Mart will also be selling iPhone in 2009…..they sell a ton of iPods already. Best Buy is having to sell warranties and install services to make things work…. If I were looking to buy a new flat screen, I’d keep my eye out for specials, check the internet, and if not great deals just wait until after Christmas. I can recommend the 52″ LCD Sony Bravia line….excellent picture, features, and sound.
just a simple indicator of what is in store for the RE market, if my own behavior is any indication. i am interested in a new flat screen (in the 40 inch range is fine) and an i-phone. but unless a real deal occurs before the holidays, i will purchase after the new year because i feel the prices will be quite a bit lower by then. this is the mentality of a deflationary cycle. i may be wrong in my approach, and just wait a few months to buy the items at the same price. but this is exactly how deflation works. and i am viewing my RE purchase the same way. every time i postpone my purchase, the price drops another 5% to 10%. until something happens to break me (and many others) out of this psychology, things will continue to worsen.
gables – On a flat screen TV, you might over pay now by $100 or $500 depending on size. The financial hit is minimal compared to buying a $500K condo where you could lose $100K or more. So if people are holding off on these relatively small purchases then it is clear that the large purchases will be held off even longer esp as the decision to wait is reinforced by monthly price drops….the opposite of buyers regret. Moreover the stories of pain and that “that could have been me” simply reinforces the decision to wait (sorta like passing by an accident on the interstate)….the opposite of the stories of those that “made” money by buying yet another condo. It is a downward spiral with no bottom in sight. Whoever buys now should make sure it really is the perfect place since they may be stuck living there for a very long time depending on their financial situation. The reality of the consumer’s financial position is just starting to take hold…
AJ – Since you are a DJ that would explain your lack of basic financial, accounting, etc. knowledge. Not a knock on you, just a fact as previously pointed out. You can get some books or take a course and learn it I’m sure since you don’t strike me as someone who can’t learn. I would recommend it since there is a general lack of basic finance in this country and the more that learn it the better. Not sure why you are selling a NYC home but retaining the two Miami condos which have a worse financial outlook. Perhaps you are under water on the Miami condos? Don’t get emotional about your financial decisions esp. since you don’t even live in them. This is not a time that allows for large margins of error like during the real estate bubble. Those that make mistakes will get slapped down hard. Be sure to start saving for your retirement, if you are under 40, which I am pretty sure you are, START SAVING NOW…..we won’t see anything from the fed govt when we reach the new retirement age of 75 or 80. The numbers simply do not support it as health care costs sky rocket and people live longer into the years of the highest health care costs. It is like an ever expanding ballon payment that could devastate this country unless hard decisions are made.
RT, i do hold out some hope on the limit of a deflationary spiral as compared to what we saw in the great depression. back then, people were far more self reliant and could live without much interaction from others. they cooked, raised their own produce and meat, fixed their own homes and appliances when broken, etc without relying on others to do the work. today, people cannot do that. my ex nearly burned down a building because she did not even know to clean out the lint filter in the dryer. fortunately, this incompetence and laziness of todays society will keep the wheels of capital moving at least somewhat, so that we do not regress back to the stoneage!
returning to Parc Lofts, i really do like this unit. as indicated here in the past, a true industrial loft is hard to find in Miami and i find them attractive, if the price is right. in particular i like the flooring. is this only possible in units without living quarters underneath because of soundproofing? what i really would like in a loft is a true multistory configuration, so that i can have interior balconies overlooking my living space. neo vertika was onto something, the problem is the space is just too small. a loft can only work with extra space, and seems like most who tried this approach skimped on the needed space. i know there was a loft building supposed to go up in sobe, near the macaurther causeway. anybody know the status of this project, vitri i think?
gables – You mean I’m the only one raising chickens in my condo? 🙂 I guess others are shooting porn and turning them into pot grow houses or something….
Candela,
Did not hear from you for a long time.
I just quoted someone re: Vegas. I do not subscribe to that theory.
You must be happy that Mondrian is opened and operational. That is convenience next door. Have you tried Asia de Cuba yet? Let us know what you found out about the new Botel.
I live in a half acre house on Long Island and used to keep my Riverdale pad only as a weekend retreat. But off late , I just don’t have time for it anymore. I am trying to consolidate my RE holdings and planning to move to Miami in the next 2 years. I will keep the LI house and sell off the co-op.
Here is the link for the ad I placed in Craigslist. I am not yet seriously marketing it on MLS as I am in no rush. If it happens, it happens.
http://newyork.craigslist.org/brx/reo/929128480.html