Apogee South Beach Penthouse Sells For $11.5M
April 15, 2011 by Lucas Lechuga
Penthouse A at Apogee South Beach closed yesterday for $11.5M. The transaction is the highest priced condo sale in Miami Dade County in 2011. Furthermore, it also is the fifth highest condo resale in Miami-Dade history. The penthouse has 6,853 square feet of interior, over 11,000 square feet of terrace, a private rooftop pool, a summer kitchen and offers 360-degree views of the Atlantic Ocean, Biscayne Bay and the city. The buyer was an undisclosed person from Europe.
2011 may turn out to be a very hot year for the luxury real estate market in Miami. There should be a lot of activity in the coming months, particularly in the luxury homes market. Currently, there are five waterfront homes priced over $9M that are under contract with the highest being a 15,008 square foot home listed for $32M. I'll be sure to keep an eye on these properties and report back once they close. In the meantime, enjoy the following pictures of Penthouse A at Apogee South Beach.
View all available Apogee South Beach condos for sale
I remember when this was being marketed by Kevin and Esther for 22 or 23 M!!
Don’t talk about luxury real estate market comeback!
Whatever is selling is going for big markdowns!
What do u guys honestly think of this penthouse?
This was the highest price paid for a condo in almost a year.
The unit has amazing views but need to be redone by a real designer. The buildings location is great but the property manager is an A-HOLE. If I bring a client to see a $4 Million unit I should be able to take them to see the pool but not this guy. Very unfriendly like its extior!
Everglades on the Bay units that were purchased for an average of $210 psf have been selling at $320 psf. The supply of condos in Dade county is down to 9 months. Pending sales have jumped from around 1700 a month up to 2600 so sales should continue to be strong.
Hurry up and buy now!! Once the remaining units are sold, you’ll never see these prices again!!
(Sorry, couldn’t help myself.)
Like someone else above, I remember when this was about a $22 million listing. This is a hell of a sale, but it probably is evidence that the really high-end units haven’t hit the bottom yet. Unlike downtown, where a lot of units were bought with liar loans and/or where deposits were surrendered, the Beach is chock full of empty high-end units that were paid for in cash or have better-heeled owners who have been able to wait out the downturn. But if the owner of a penthouse like this is taking a 50% shave off the MLS price, it seems safe to say the more average units will be seeing big declines as well.
Wow, ridiculousness begets ridiculousness. This unit sold for almost $1700 psf. What does the fact that this unit was LISTED for $22M in 2008 have to do with anything. The guy bought it for $15M in 2008 and turned around and tried to make a $6M profit in only 4 months. The $22M listing was obviously ridiculous which is why it was listed at a more reasonable $14M before it sold.
I mean you can’t really think that this unit should have sold for $3200 psf or think that the fact that it sold for $1700 is a sign that its “safe to say the more average units will be seeing big declines as well.”
Pat Riley owns the neighboring unit and he paid $11.8M in September 2008. So either Riley is a master mind at real estate as well or the guy who bought this unit simply overpaid.
Gixxer – Are you actually refuting my point that the average boom-era high-end Beach buyer fit a different financial profile than the average boom-era downtown buyer, or are you just persisting in being 100% bullish on all things Miami r.e.?
In case you missed it, I plainly said “this is a hell of a sale,” so it’s not like I bashed the deal. But if you think a 50% markdown on one of the highest-end units in all of Miami is just a ho-hum MLS occurrence, you don’t know as much as you think about the r.e. business. Miami Beach is absolutely chock full of high-end inventory and shadow inventory, and three-plus years after the r.e. bust, Beach pricing still isn’t even close to a sell/buy sell equilibrium. Not even close.
You calling it a hell of a sale and then turning around and saying it was marked down 50% seems ridiculous.
At most you could argue that it sold for 25% less than what he bought it for but even that would be a little of a stretch considering Pat Riley bought the neighboring unit for $11.8M, 7 months after him.
From my understanding under 6 months of supply would be considered a sellers market, over 12 months of suppy would be considered a buyers market and between the two would be a more balanced market where you have an equilibrium between the buyers and sellers and where prices are stable with gradual increases.
Miami beach now has an 11.4 month supply of condos. And that doesn’t even take into consideration that as you pointed out many of the high end units were purchased by better heeled buyers who simply can afford to ride it out and could care less what the “book value” of their condo is. When you look at the supply of condos in Miami Beach under $200k the supply is around 5 months.
I’ll agree that I’m definitely bullish, but it’s more of an occupational hazard. In development there is pretty much always an opportunity somewhere. It might make you feel good to look at the overal market and say its down but I have to look and see whats going on in all the submarkets or else someone else will take the opportunity.
As a side not Regalia went out to bid. Since were so far from equilibrium as you say, why would they build more?
Gixxer — Two things can be true at once, you know. It was a “hell of a sale” because $11 million is $11 million. But that doesn’t change the fact that the original ask was $22 or $23 mil.
As for the Beach having only 11 months of supply, don’t kid yourself. There’s *huge* shadow inventory on the Beach, and sales in the upper price ranges are still moving at a glacial pace. Some of the higher-end buildings are lucky to have one sale per month.
As for the Beach having 5 months of supply at under $200k, that seems like an ugly number in two respects. If Miami Beach is such a hot destination and Miami is such a hot r.e. market, there shouldn’t be *any* units under $200k at the Beach, and there certainly shouldn’t be 5 months of inventory. No more than 2-3 years ago, r.e. agents talked like $200k was tip money for the valets or the cost of a decent parking space.
—
Gixxer said: “At most you could argue that [this Apogee penthouse] sold for 25% less than what he bought it for …”
— That wouldn’t be an argument. That would be a simple statement of fact.
Gixxer, the sub $200k market for Miami Beach is not of much interest to most folks looking at the new Brickell type buildings. Many of those beach units will be 1 bedroom with the beach premium. A 2B at that price in Miami Beach will probably be in an old dilapidated building. The sub $200k markets in Brickell and MB are completely different.
Gables,
I agree. I didn’t make any sort of comparison to Brickell.
gixxer, where did you get the information about everglades selling for $320/sf? If it is true, then it is an amazing turnaround.
Is it safe to assume that if Paramount is priced at $350-400, it will be considered a steal with the waterfront location, private elevators, flow through units and the 5*amenities?
Here’s the article that Gixxer is referring to in regards to Everglades on the Bay selling for $320 psf:
http://therealdeal.com/miami/articles/miami-bulk-buyer-reselling-at-52-percent-markup-at-everglades-on-the-bay-condo
Thanks Lucas, I tried to attach the link but it wouldn’t let me so I just left it out. There is also a condovulture article with a little more detail. There have been 9 sales this year, 11 since the bulk purchase at an average of $320 psf.
This should help the CBD not only from a market perspective but also adding more street level activity there as well.
This should be interesting: CBOE Futures Exchange to launch Radar Logic 28-day real estate indexes. Housing stats are published daily rather than monthly or quarterly.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cboe-futures-exchange-cfe-to-launch-futures-on-radar-logic-28-day-real-estate-indexes-120223329.html
Related Group planning to launch a new condo building next to 500 Brickell without a parking garage:
Condo sales in Miami-Dade County jumped 85 percent in March year-over-year:
Downtown Miami condo prices up 14 percent but sales down, year-over-year:
http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2011/04/20/downtown-miami-condo-prices-rise.html
Lucas,
If your interested the propsed plans for MyBrickell can be seen here:
http://egov.ci.miami.fl.us/Legistarweb/Attachments/62666.pdf
It shows the old Brickell Station plans for referrence and to highlight it’s now a much smaller project.
I knew this issue of parking was going to come up sooner or later. Withing Miami 21 the new zoning code it allows you to actually provide no parking if located within 1000 feet from a metrorail or metromover stop. So it will be interesting to see what happens. I’m sure neigboring communities will complain but this is now a part of the code and allowed by right meaning the developer wouldn’t need any type of variance to get approval.
The people at 500 are going to complain either way. If they were to add the parking and build it under the old Brickell Staion plan it would kill more views.
Funny enought the people complaining about the parking are probably the same ones who complain about the traffic. It was put in the code for a reason to encourage less car use. This project will still have to sell to market forces. Residents will either pay more for parking or it will attract residents who want to work and live in Brickell and drive less.
Thanks Gixxer. It’ll be interesting to see how this project sells if it does indeed get approved.
I am all for walkable living areas. But I would not buy into a building which did not have parking. This is not New York. I still want/need to travel outside of downtown for activities. I just need to do it less often. While this may be a cost savings on construction, its probably not a good long term decision for the building (and its pricing).
Gables,
You would still have parking, it would just be in 500. This would be more ideal for people who live/work in Brickell in maybe a 2/2 and then have their car in the 500 lot that they use on the weekends to go to South Beach, Midtown, etc. or to run to the mall or grocery store.
I’d say building cost are about $280 psf, with $50 of that for the garage. That’s about an 18% savings. So while I agree it will afect the pricing in this building I don’t think it will affect them much.
Instead of just building basically one product developers are now trying to find little niches to serve. 700 is going after 4 bedroom market and MyBrickell is going after a smaller market who would prefer a cheaper price in exchange for less parking.
Joe,
“That wouldn’t be an argument. That would be a simple statement of fact.”
Exactly, I’m arguing with facts and you’re arguing with ridiculousness.
“As for the Beach having 5 months of supply at under $200k, that seems like an ugly number in two respects. If Miami Beach is such a hot destination and Miami is such a hot r.e. market, there shouldn’t be *any* units under $200k at the Beach, and there certainly shouldn’t be 5 months of inventory. No more than 2-3 years ago, r.e. agents talked like $200k was tip money for the valets or the cost of a decent parking space.”
Again here you go again with pure ridiculousness. You can pretty much change your benchmarks to support whatever you want to believe. Again from my understanding having supply under 6 months is more of a sellers market. I’m sure that’s not etched in stone. But your argument is that there shouldn’t be any units at all available???? And you’re argument is that $200k 2 years ago was tip money for valets. There is no emperical or logical value to your arguments. If the months of supply was higher you would argue it should be lower. Then when the supply is lower, you argue there shouldn’t be supply at all.
Gixxer — Um, the “fact” to which you seem to be claiming ownership was the very basis of my first post above, which you called “ridiculous.” Please pick one side and then stick to it.
As for the Beach, I stand by my comments above. Two or three years ago, there was no such thing as the “sub-$200k market at the Beach,” aside from a small number of VERY low-end units in very old buildings. Realtors would laugh in your face if you even mentioned such a budget or price point. Maybe if you had been in Miami for more than 10 minutes before coming here and proclaiming yourself to be an expert, you’d know such things.
No your argument was that the unit sold for 50% less than the former ASKING price and that forecasts big price declines for average units.
I argued that 50% of the asking price during the boom isn’t a real discount and that the only real discount would be that it sold 25% off of what he bought it for. I also pointed out this discount was a bit of a stretch considering the neighboring unit was bought for $11.8M.
So you have one guy who buys a unit for $15M and another guy who buys a unit for $11.8M. Then when the guy who bought the unit for $15M sells for $11.5M you argue the 25% price decline is representative of the market when its obvious that he simply overpaid 25% for the unit.
As for the $200k market, who cares. What does the fact that Realtors laughed in your face if you were looking for $200k condos two years ago have to do with the market today???? Units are now selling at $200k and that is the new reality. Things have changed and aren’t the way they used to be. Looking back at the way things were isn’t going to prepare you for how things are.
If you lived here you’d be able to see that places like Brickell are much different than they were even a year ago.
You argue non logically about things without any empirical value. What does the amount of time that I’ve been here prove. I study real estate in school here, I work in real estate here and I obviously live here. Does the the amount of time I’ve lived here change the median selling price I read in a report?? Does it change the projects that I’m working on here??? Does it change the cap rates on multifamily properties???
Am I an expert,… no. Am I professional who works in real estate and therefore is constantly looking at market information, cap rates, vacancy rates, lease rates, investor returns, etc.,…. Yes. Are you some random guy on the internet who get therapeutic relief from venting nonsensically on the internet….Yes.
Lately all I’ve really posted are the numbers showing prices increasing downtown as well as information I know about future development happening. Why does this bother you? I readily admit that there are numerous areas where the values are going to continue to go down. But it seems like it would kill you to admit that areas like downtown are getting better. The last article Lucas posted indicated that downtown condos are up 14% YoY.
Epic sales up from $455 psf to $485 psf
Miami New-Condo Sales Rise As Biggest Markets Fall:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Miami-NewCondo-Sales-Rise-As-ibd-1790810296.html?x=0
“Meanwhile, in Miami-Dade County the median price of an attached home — a condo, for the most part — rose 11% to $288,614 last year, says Hanley Wood. The median price was higher than the peak year of 2006, when 17,400 closings were recorded. But many low-price condos have been converted to rentals, skewing inventory to luxury units.”
“Falling prices had a lot to do with the rebound. “In 2009, prices started to bottom,” Massirman said, noting that new condos on Brickell fell to as low as $200 a square foot from $600 three years earlier. In late 2009, investors “started piling in.”
“Bulk buyers and other investors are starting to turn their sights to suburban neighborhoods away from the coast, where prices are still falling, observers say.”
“East of I-95 is well past the bottom,” Zalewski said. “West of I-95 is a market that doesn’t have any kind of safety stop. The 10% local unemployment rate has a drastic effect on the suburban market.”
This is pretty much what I have been saying. I argued 2009 as the bottom and the overall numbers kept going lower. Then I realized the reason I was getting 2009 as the bottom was because I was focuses on property only west of I-95 mainly because I’m not from Miami and the majority of places I was concerned with were in this area.
I think you meant east of I-95 in your last sentence.
Thanks, yes I meant east of I-95 (Downtown).
Gixxer 1000 said: “So you have one guy who buys a unit for $15M and another guy who buys a unit for $11.8M. Then when the guy who bought the unit for $15M sells for $11.5M you argue the 25% price decline is representative of the market when its obvious that he simply overpaid 25% for the unit.”
— Really, with a two-unit sample size, it was “obvious” that he “overpaid 25% for the unit”? Common sense says that if it was “obvious,” the guy probably wouldn’t have done it in the first place, right?
As for your other comments, please don’t try to portray yourself as some sort of neutral reporter-of-numbers. You’re the biggest bull on this site and have been since your first post here. And not only are you this site’s biggest bull, you’re a dishonest bull. You cherry-pick little market segments and then claim they’re representative of the entire Miami-Dade market — e.g., your year-long insistence that the bottom was over a year earlier than the numbers have shown, or simultaneously claiming that Miami is booming while ignoring the glacial pace of the high-end market or the new “sub-$200k market at the Beach” that didn’t even exist 2-3 years ago (and probably hadn’t existed at the Beach in at least 10 to 15 years).
who cares how much epic is selling for?
for a such proclaimed luxury building, it is a dump with a ghetto clientele.
just go check out that bath tub they call pool…
Again more stupidity. It’s like the guy who was talking about Brickell not being safe when there are nothing but women walking around in high heels until 4 am. Epic is definitely a great luxury building. Zuma is great as well. I mean you people are over the top. It’s like you’re mad that people you don’t like have money. It like you see a guy with tattoos driving a Lamborghini and then you say that means that its not a luxury vehicle.
Hey Gixxer
Did you read the Miami Herald – about the choppers at night in the Brickell area?
I just did because you mentioned it. I personally didn’t hear anything but I don’t get home until around 10 pm so I probably wasn’t around at the time. I’m sure the thousands of people trying to sleep at 9 pm were extremely annoyed.
Also I can’t speak for other buildings but where I’m at as long as you shut the balcony door that closes out pretty much most of the noise.
Joe,
If I bought a car for $100k and you bought the same car for $75k would you really say well between these two sales we can’t really tell if I overpaid???
“You cherry-pick little market segments and then claim they’re representative of the entire Miami-Dade market”
Where I have I been arguing about all of Miami-Dade??? In fact the exact opposite is true. I’ve admitted time and time again that ALL of Miami-Dade is not doing good. As a matter of FACT let me quote what I wrote just three posts ago:
“I readily admit that there are numerous areas where the values are going to continue to go down.”
Or maybe I should just quote my last post:
“I argued 2009 as the bottom and the overall numbers kept going lower. Then I realized the reason I was getting 2009 as the bottom was because I was focuses on property only (east) of I-95 mainly because I’m not from Miami and the majority of places I was concerned with were in this area.”
The last time I checked east of I-95 isn’t all of Miami-Dade. And why would you care what the average in Miami-Dade is if you only want to buy a condo downtown or on the beach.
The only other areas I really look at are Coral Gables are Coconut Grove. Once you get past Coral Gables with the traffic (that I also admitted you guys were right about) I really don’t see those areas a legitimate competition.
So you like to keep arguing about what Miami-Dade is going to do because to you it’s just academic and you get off on bashing the Miami market. But people buying condos downtown would be better served by looking at what the market is doing downtown.
Dear Gixxer,
For someone who lives at Infinity, you must know EVERYTHING about luxury.
If you ever in your life can afford being my neighbor in 15 CPW and have a vacation home in star island, then we will talk about money!
Epic is a dump..Zuma is great in London..the one in Miami is pretentious and with bad service, like everything down here.Thank God for DB bistro..he had to come from NY to open something decent down here
The sad thing about Miami is that people do not know anything about luxury..so you dress a building up with fake beige tones and call it luxury..or build with huge towers with starkish furniture and call it cool…
Besides, living is a condo/hotel..it does not get any cheaper than that…great luxury sharing your building with tacky tourist who party in your pool the whole time and destroy the property because they don’t care!
.
Exclusivity and luxury aren’t the same thing.
Good grief new reality. The nouveau riche are a boorish lot. Tossing around a chi chi address to distinguish themselves from the riff raff. As if 15 CPW isn’t full of “tacky tourists” all day long in your neighborhood. As if Star Island isn’t surrounded all day long by the cute tourist boats full of the common folk snapping your picture or euro trash like Thomas Kramer and the like renting out their homes for all night orgy’s and you wondering how you could have made such a costly mistake purchasing there. If you really had any class or money you would be living in Gables Estates. Just saying.
Gables estates to be living near all the ghetto players?
No thanks.
I am sure you own something REALLY spectacular as well!
Check out the prices in Gables estates..dropping by the minute..just saying…
Gixxer and Lucas, thanks for the links. I would have to research forever online to get all those news.
hey Lucas
Great work censoring posts..
Sorry new reality. Your comment was sitting in queue. Just released it.
New condo scheduled for 3rdQ 2012 completion:
Sorry Gixxer, but have you seen their other project 1800 Biscayne Plaza condominium ? It is a complete flop with the lowest quality possible.
It would be better off not to have it built at all than to add another middle-of-the-road building to tons of empty ones already built in that area.
All those buildings in n bayshore are suffering to keep running with cheap renters. paramount is not even on the market yet …go figure why they want another building there…
1800 Biscayne is selling at $320 psf. In the Wynwood/Edgewater area there are 741 unsold units and 340 of those are at Paramount. The Publix is currently under construction helping the neighborhood shape up nicely. Now I know nothing in Miami stands up to the level of quality that you require but the rest of us heathens have to live somewhere and wouldn’t mind a condo on the bay for $230 psf.
And due to current construction profits the developers can actually sell at that price and still make a profit. Yeah, go figure why these developers would want to make a profit.
OK, gixxer. last tuesday of the month. lets have at it again. case-shiller reports a continued drop. aggregate AND high tiered indexes are below Spring 2009. two years later, we are in a double dip in nominal terms. and in real terms, inflation adjusted, add another 5% to that drop. it is a very hard trend to resist. fortunately we must be much closer to the bottom than the top!
Gixxer,
your rhetorical speech has no room in current times.
If Bay parc is so wonderful, wonder why you decided to buy at Infinity..you should have scooped up a 3-bd in the FANSTASTIC 1800 Biscayne Plaza which were selling for a penny.
BTW, any weirdo crazy enough to pay 320sqf in that dump really deserves leaving there.
I don’t live at Infinity. You keep confusing me with the guy who does live at Infinity and uses the name owner@infinity.
As far as the weirdos paying $320 at 1800 it seems again that your arguments seem to hinge on what you feel and not actual reality. Whether or not someone is a weirdo because they want to live in Edgewater is neither here nor there. But the way we derive value in real estate is by the value that the two parties are willing to come to an agreement on. And in the place of 1800 $320 is the average price that people are coming to agreement on whether they’re a weirdo or not.
I personally prefer to live in Brickell, but that just me. Gables prefers Coral Gables. And all the people that live in Midtown obviously prefer Midtown. Everyone in the world doesn’t live their life to your standards, imagine that.
I’m sure there are people who care nothing about walking and drive everywhere so they personally would rather be in 1800 right on the bay instead of in Brickell next to the Metrorail.
Data as posted by Lucas.
Seems the $/sqft price is more like half or less of 320 usd/ sqft
Were talking about 2 different projects. You talking about 1800 Biscayne and I’m talking about 1800 Club. Sorry for the confustion but since 23 Biscayne is on the actual bay I thought you were comparing it to another project on the bay.
gables,
I think I’ve already covered what I feel about case shiller. I admit when I first started researching Miami I was concernered mainly with the areas east of I-95 as well as a few other places like Coral Gables and the Grove. Case shiller covers not only all of Miami-Dade but also all of Broward and Palm Beach. If you’re looking to invest in a condo in Brickell or South Beach this information is pretty much useless.
It’s not like people are investing in the overall value of housing for a metropolatin area. They are buying one house in a specific neighborhood. After seeing the different between area wide data and neighborhood data I began focusing on specific neighborhoods. Miami is different from other areas in the fact that there are many things that seperate these neighborhoods. Its not like it is in other cities where you can just build something nice in another area and therefore it can easily compete. No matter how big or nice you building the homes in Homestead they aren’t going to compete with Miami Beach. Case Shiller doesn’t recognize this distinction.
Case shiller also doesn’t realize the money that needs to be put into many of these forclosures. For examply you buy a foreclosure for $140k. The appliances are gone and the house has detoriated because it sat empty for a year. You put another $40k into fixing up the house so its habitable. Case shiller only recognizes the $140k you paid for the house. And even if an investor purchased the house, then made the improvements and sold it to an end user Case Shiller would still only recognize the first sale at $140 and not the second.
Gixxer, Case Schiller still defines trends pretty well. It defined the rise and the following crash, irregardless of neighborhood. And you even went to the tiered data recently to avoid the composite trend and focus on the higher end units to describe how higher end units are fairing well. All data for Miami is down in double dip territory no matter how you look at it. It is really hard to justify a counter trend in such a sea of red.
I’m not denying that case shiller doesn’t help identify trends but again that is the trend for ALL of South Florida. Yes ALL data for Miami is down to double dip territory. And if you were buying an stock in an index of all South Florida housing this would clearly tell you stay away. But for most people that’s not the case.
It’s not hard to jusify a count trend in such a sea of red when ALL of downtown is in the black. From what I can tell alot of the urban areas east of I-95 have already bottomed while the areas west of I-95 (which is the majority of the area) is trending lower.
You keep trying to set the argument up that the overall Miami market is going lower and then use case shiller to justify you’re argument. I’m not disagreeing with that. I’ve admitted as much to Joe. The overall Miami market is trending lower.
But again that doesn’t mean much to people looking to buy the vast majority of Condos that were built east of I-95. As I’ve higligted before these condos seem to have a backstop coming from international investors. Developers are already gearing up to build more because they see the shortage coming. When you look east of I-95, occupancy is rising, rents are rising and therefore prices are rising.
If prices were falling in my building that would be great for me, but unfortuneatley that is not the case. Units are renting 5 – 15% higher than when I rented my unit only 8 months ago. Same thing with sales, they have went up about $10 psf than when I first moved here. What should I take away from case shiller when the unit I want to buy is going up in price?
gixxer, condos in the brickell area stabilized over the past year and a half-but in essence so did case shiller. now case shiller is signaling another down trend. there is a very good chance the brickell will follow that trend over time. maybe not as severe a drop as the overall CS, but it will be hard for CS to drop while downtown were to rise.
i just looked at past sales price per sq ft using Lucas’s tools for 2 buildings-nice tool Lucas. Brickell on the River North has held basically steady for the past year. Solaris has moved from steady to a slight downward trend. and when you consider the large number of short sale listings in many brickell buildings, your trend is going to be down rather than up. we aren’t going to crash like a few years ago. but definite headwinds for appreciation. those short sale units are still going to be unloaded even when new buildings arrive in a couple of years.
Gizzer,
Apologies accepted.
Biscayne 23 is by the same developer as 1800 Biscayne Plaza and not 1800 Club.
Plaza is a dump. Dumpy buildings will not make an area better.
Area is full of unoccupied dumpy buildings. No need for another one to go up.
I’m familar with both buildings it’s just that 1800 Bicayne is usually refered to as just Biscayne Plaza. I understan why you would want to compare the two considering its the same developer but I think you have to account for the fact that this development will be on the bay and 1800 Plaza isn’t.
“Area is full of unoccupied dumpy buildings. No need for another one to go up.”
This is where you start to leave reality again and start to referring back to what you think or what you feel. This area has currently sold 78% of the units and is 90% occupied. And that doesn’t include any sales or leases in 1Q2011.
Buying burst eats into downtown Miami condo supply, prices edge up:
http://www.miamitodaynews.com/news/110428/story5.shtml
Record residential sales in Miami-Dade on horizon led by $300,000 range:
http://www.miamitodaynews.com/news/110428/story1.shtml
“When a bank has an all-cash offer versus typical users with financing, often times they will go with the lower offer just knowing they will close,”
Case shiller does not account for these all cash deals. An all cash sale is the same as an 5% down FHA loan. But the majority of buyers don’t have the ability to go all cash and therefore don’t have the ability to get the same price. It would be like me gauging the price of milk, eggs, toothpaste, etc. by how much Wal-mart pays to buy it knowing good and well I don’t have the purchasing power to buy it at the same price.
“Because prices have decreased, Mr. Palomo said some buyers mistakenly think they can get a house for significantly less than its listing price, but that’s generally not the case.”
“we are on track now to sell more than we have ever sold in Miami-Dade County’s history.”
That should say “an all cash deal is NOT the same as a 5% down FHA deal.”
Are you the writer? Can I smoke what you are smoking? “In the first quarter of this year, the sales average was about 2,348 per month — higher than in 2005’s active market.”
I ran all the sales numbers but could not come up with anywhere even close to 2348 per month. Being purchased by the Venezuelan buyers with Cash?
Do you have any shame?
If you are getting something different why don’t you use actual numbers instead of just making random arguments. From what I see there were 2,164 sales in Jan, 2,164 sales in Feb and 2,470 sales in Mar for an average of 2,266 per month. I don’t know where they got 2,348 but it doesn’t seem to be that far off.
Why would I be ashamed posting a link to a news article? We supposed to believe you over Miamitodaynews or EWM?
Here is another article saying the same thing.
“This coupled with strong sales activity thus far this year is evidence of healthy demand expected to result in the highest annual sales levels since the peak of the real estate boom in 2005.”
I guess I must have wrote this article as well.
gables,
I really have to disagree with your comments about case shiller. You’re comments really show that you don’t understand what case shiller is. Case shiller is nothing more than the average of repeat sales for all of a metropolitan area which in this case means all of South Florida. It’s also a 3 month average that is 3 months behind. So the latest report is the average of Dec, Jan and Feb. We already know as a fact that the average median price downtown was increasing at this same time. So there is you first flaw. The drop has already happened. Case shiller doesn’t signal what is going to happen but instead reports what did happened. Case Shiller went down while downtown went up, that is already a fact.
So your argument is basically that downtown has to follow the trend of the 3 month old average of all of south Florida????? That makes no sense. When you spend all your time looking backwards sometime you forget to look at whats in front of you. The same type of thinking that led us into the mess. Condos WILL sell at X because they HAVE been selling at X.
And for every building that you highlight that has a negative trend I can highlight two with a positive trend, which is why the overall average downtown is UP.
Also your information about Solaris is INCORRECT. Here are the average sales per square foot in Solaris quarter by quarter:
2Q10:$199
3Q10:$180
4Q10:$178
1Q11:$169
2Q11:$198
It appears that Solaris is now starting to trend back upward as of the 2nd quarter, not downward.
Same thing for Brickell on the River:
2Q10:$186
3Q10:$196
4Q10:No Sales
1Q11:$221
2Q11:No Sales
So again another condo that you say is flat or trending downward but is instead trending upward. And this all the while Brickell is only 85% occupied. What do you think is going to happen in a year when it’s 100% occupied?
Furthermore with the respect to short sales this is simply you saying random things without actually looking at the data. What information do you have to show that the number of short sales downtown are going to increase? Everything I’m looking at is showing distressed sales going down. If there were x number of distressed sales last year and prices went up then why should price now go down when there are even less distress sales?
Auctions went from 80 in December 2009 to 16 in December 2010. The buildings that have come on line in the later years are doing better as they were sold to more cash buyers in a better stable position.
Gixxer, i got my numbers from lucas’s chart trends for each of the buildings (river north and river south are different buildings-do not mix them up). not sure where you obtained your numbers. if you are just averaging the three months he reports, that is not correct. you cannot take the average of an average and get a valid result, because now you have no understanding of how you biased your numbers to heavy and light volume months. and brickell north only had sales charted for march in 1Q 2011 at $206 sq ft-certainly not the number you provided of $221. so before you try to discredit somebody by claiming INCORRECT data, do some homework. you got a problem with my data, take it up with lucas.
further, when i posted we had not even completed the month of april, so no legitimate 2Q data existed. and to post quarterly data in early May for 2Q 2011 is borderline fraudulent. you cannot post quarterly data for a quarter which has barely completed one of its three months-you should know better unless you have no problem misleading people.
your “facts” that downtown condo averages are up are statistical games which I will call you on. Those values are up because you have several brand new luxury units coming online-they naturally will increase the averages. but that does not mean value of condos is not falling. that is what case shiller is implying-the INDEX falls which indicates the value of the individual condo is falling. it is more than just an average of the condos in the area-that is why it is followed so closely. apparently you do not fully understand the Case-Shiller index.
short sales are easy to describe. look at all the short sale listing in the condo buildings. you think those units will not become distressed sales? the banks have stalled the process, but it will occur, just not a flood all at once. but they will just hinder appreciation for a much longer period of time. until you clear out all those short sales (mostly from buildings which opened 2005-2008) the pressure will be on. they are short sales because they are not financially viable options for the current owners-not much chance that will change in the foreseeable future.