New Miami Condos – Closing Rates for September 2008
September 22, 2008 by Lucas Lechuga
Below, you will find the date that each condo development began closings followed by the number of closed units in each condo development:
- Ten Museum Park - June 14, 2007 - (165)
- Latitude on the River - July 27, 2007 - (371)
- Onyx on the Bay - July 31, 2007 - (69)
- Loft Downtown 2 - September 26, 2007 - (444)
- 50 Biscayne - October 1, 2007 - (526)
You'll notice with this first batch that I dropped Star Lofts from the list. I noticed a lot of double entries which made it difficult to gauge the true number of closed condos. Additionally, Star Lofts on the Bay hasn't shown much progress in a very long time. Ten Museum Park closed 11 units since the last update while 50 Biscayne's vast improvement reflects the bulk sale that took place. The rest of the condo developments showed very little progress.
- 1800 Club - November 27, 2007 - (322)
- Brickell on the River South - December 17, 2007 - (165)
- Opera Tower - December 28, 2007 - (220)
- Quantum on the Bay - January 3, 2008 - (524)
- Plaza on Brickell - January 7, 2008 - (660)
- Apogee South Beach - January 16, 2008 - (65)
Plaza on Brickell once again showed the most improvement within this group. Its closing rate jumped about 14 points since the July update revealing a total of 660 closed condos of the overall 1,000 in the two towers. Apogee South Beach once again inched closer to hitting the 100 percent mark, with only 2 additional condos to close before reaching it. Quantum on the Bay moves into second place in this group and has now closed around 75 percent of its condos.
- 1060 Brickell - January 23, 2008 - (210)
- Midtown 4 - February 15, 2008 - (338)
- Marina Blue - February 27, 2008 - (359)
- Wind - February 28, 2008 - (193)
- Asia Brickell Key - April 4, 2008 - (60)
The big story in this group is Midtown 4. It jumped from a 19.10 percent closing rate to an 84.92 percent closing rate. A large bulk sale of over 250 condos seems to have taken place to a buyer with a second party name of "D M MIDTOWN MIA OWNER LLC". The same buyer also closed on slightly over 50 condos at Midtown 2 on the same day. Was this simply the developer transferring units to one of its other entities or was this an outside buyer with no association to the developer? Marina Blue jumped about 10 points, settling at around 70 percent of its condos closed. Wind and Asia showed nice improvements this update with Wind increasing around 17 points and Asia about 18 points.
- Met 1 - April 30, 2008 - (131)
- 900 Biscayne Bay - May 5, 2008 - (157)
- 500 Brickell - May 14, 2008 - (149)
- Axis - May 19, 2008 - (143)
- Ivy - June 12, 2008 - (150)
These last four condo developments all showed good progress since the July update. The biggest surprise to me was Ivy which closed 125 new condos since that time. I would have guessed that 500 Brickell and Axis would each have more closed sales than Ivy.
Disclaimer: The above closing rate information was derived from public County records. There can be a 2-3 week delay from the time that a closing occurs and the time that the closing is recorded.
Sold out of my long bank positions at the open. Long IPI, auy, gld, etc…still short tlt.
Got out of the stock market friday morning. Sold the financials (XLF) and homebuilders ( ITB) As mentioned in the previous thread, its time to go long real-estate by low-balling bank foreclosures. I’m looking for a single family home in the upper east side region. Not looking for a condo. Think you really need to know what you are doing in that case. Problem with condos, as I see it ,and I’m sure this has been mentioned by astute posters in prior threads, is the HOA fees are too high and will need to be cut in order for average folk to afford the payments. So lets say HOA fees are cut; then what happens. Well that means services, upkeep, maintenance, landscaping etc will suffer thereby further devaluing the property. So condos are a dicey proposition but I’m sure there are some deals out there.
I think your numbers are off on Quantum. I see 514 units with recorded deeds in public records. That would be 73%
Lucas,
Where did you get your data of Quantum from ? There is quite a large discrepancy to the figures from Samir.
Get ready for 500+ comments.
People treat this blog like a message board for miami real estate.
bubblerefuge, I do agree with that last comment.
Samir,
Are you using Terra ADI as the first party name? I don’t see 513 deeds.
Even with as bad as things are I think most buildings will be able to weather the storm and survive, the only ones I doubt are Onyx, Axis, Opera, and anything on that Crap River.
Lucas,
Terra ADI Intl Bayshore
I searched Terra ADI Intl Bayshore,
01/01/2008 – 04/01/2008 (339 deeds)
04/02/2008 – 09/22/2008 (175 deeds)
Now I’m getting 526 but found 2 duplicates. Quantum’s total closed condos should be 524. I’m going to redo all of the buildings with over 400 deeds. I noticed now that some deeds aren’t displayed if the date is too far out. I did the following search:
01/01/2008-03/31/2008 (324)
04/01/2008-09/22/2008 (202)
Raffi, You are spot on. I will just add Avenue to your list of about to fail buildings. I see that you already included ‘crap on the river’ without mentioning ‘Wind’.
I am extremely disappointed with the 900 numbers. It is a classy building. A1+. Is it because 900 preconstruction prices themselves are high to begin with as it is an ultra luxury building?
Is is pointing towards things to come for the super six? If 900, which is one of the best buildings out there did 31% closings in 4.5 months, What hope will the super six have? I expect Marquis to turn into a hotel, unless the bailout plans really shake things up.
AJ, under the “crap on the river” I include everything thats there, wind, ivy, lofts, whatever….they are all absolute junk. and Avenune on Brickell is actually a quite nice building in a great location thats going to have some really nice retail underneath, I think at the moment its a bit overpriced. If prices come down it should be alot better than 500 brickell or plaza.
Didn’t 50 Biscayne complete the sale of the remaining units to a bulk buyer?
Everything should be correct now. The ones with over 400 deeds were corrected. You’ll see a big change in 50 Biscayne and Quantum on the Bay.
AJ said: “What hope will the super six have? I expect Marquis to turn into a hotel, unless the bailout plans really shake things up.”
Re: Marquis “turning into a hotel”. Not going to happen. The developer’s “cost per room” (condo unit) is way too high to make it economical. Nobody “needs” a 60-story hotel at that location. It makes absolutely NO sense. The economics of a hotel operation have no real synergies with the operation of a condo building.
Two of your “super 6”, Epic and ICON Brickell, are already mixed-use (condos and a hotel). These hotel components were designed, on day one, as such and the projects’ condos were designed as such.
Lucas, thanks for correcting that. That puts Related Group in a pretty good light. I wonder how ICON Brickell will do in this market? It was priced so high and there are almost 2,000 units (if not, more).
Is there an estimated date for closings? I’ve noticed a lot of progress in the last month.
higher oil prices….less money to spend on Miami CONDO INVESTMENTZZZZZ
What is the closing rate for Met1. How come that building was not included? Thanks
Cane,
I couldn’t find the first party name for Met 1. If anyone knows the first party name for Met 1 I’ll be more than glad to include it.
Any of the condos that offer retail on the lower floors. Has any retail moved in? It seems like stores are closing down in general from Miami to Lauderdale.
I’m suppose to close on my condo in a few months…..but with the mortgage lending market all dried up…does anyone know which banks are lending to all of these people that are trying to close on their condos? They can’t be all paying cash? Is the lending criteria alot stricter if you own the condo for an investment only?
Lucas,
I think it may be “MDM RESIDENCES LTD”
unrelated
spot on. leviev wants to dump the propery according to the third party accounts i’ve gotten. problem is, the property won’t work either as a rental or hotel.
AJ said “I am extremely disappointed with the 900 numbers. It is a classy building. A1+. Is it because 900 preconstruction prices themselves are high to begin with as it is an ultra luxury building? ”
I think in general preconstruction was low $400s per sq ft. for 900 Biscayne? I think this bodes ill for Icon Brickell be cause I believe they were in the $$600 per sq. foot Pre-construction range? Anybody know exactly?
I am as giddy as a school girl or an AJ as the case my be, they are opening up an Epicure Market & Cafe within an easy walking distance! I don’t know what an Epicure is but I be they have sushi for under $75 a pop! LOL Sounds nice and cool……. 🙂
I am quite surprised by the number of closings at Latitude (81%). I have not been all that impressed with the building-especially location and view (substation anyone?). Is the building as healthy as the closings make it appear to be?
Has anybody notices changes in condo prices since the events of the past week occurred? I have noticed a couple of buildings around 2005 vintage which have had several bank owned properties appear in the past week at considerable discounts to prices several months ago? Any inside info on how the banks are looking to handle their units over the next few months? Will they negotiate their prices or hold firm at the listing price (albeit it is already on the low side)?
Renter Tom said: “yhey are opening up an Epicure Market & Cafe within an easy walking distance! I don’t know what an Epicure is but I be they have sushi for under $75 a pop! LOL Sounds nice and cool……. ”
RT, Epicure is a higher end grocery with deli take-out. Their original store is at Lincoln Rd. & Alton Road. They have some great “party” foods, especially their bakery. Bit pricier than Whole Foods but I like the selection a lot better. (It’s once a month for Epicure vs. once a week for Publix for me.) The site you are referring to was a well-known deli that the same family owned for a long, long time. Epicure should be a great success up there.
I think if this buying season doesn’t show signs of a bottom, then people/banks will start getting aggressive on the sell side.
What’s lost in this bailout news is how the whole world got a wakeup call from France to Russia to China. The US lost it’s credibility as a safehaven and I think people in every country would prefer to hold tight to their money in cash for the next couple of years.
It wasn’t just our financial system that got whipsawed last week, every financial system got whipsawed. The same fear that gripped wealthy Americans with the discretionary income to buy 2nd home toy condos gripped wealthy foreigners everywhere.
During the 1926 real estate boom properties in Miami would change ownership several times in one day. What a lame real estate boom this is.
All joking aside about Sunny Isles, I have a friend who has been involved in Real Estate all his life and feel that area has the most potential after things bottom out. Maybe when all that construction fills up it’ll have the critical mass and associated new retail to be a destination? Afterall, the Oceanfront is the same there as anywhere else.
In terms of Downtown Miimi, we keep talking about having the “vision” for the next 5-10 years. 5-10 years from now, maybe Sunny Isles will be reinvented.
Who wouldn’t trust these guys LOL
All of South Florida will be hot again. I’m getting in before 2068 when prices will take off again.
Lucas, you know anything about the Lexi in normandy isles? I’m close to making a cash offer for a “b line” unit on a high floor. Curious about info on closing rates for this building as well as a smart estimate on actual value for price/sq. foot.
gables,
I live in Latitude. It is a great building. I have souht view (I-95, city, & far ocean). Pluss the association management is excellent.
Un-Related – Thanks. Wasn’t sure what it was going be and wasn’t familiar with the brand. But wow, I am just awestruck that little ole Sunny Isles Beach is getting one of the fancy stores like SoBe while AJ’s urban utopia is getting a Wal-Mart (maybe even a Super Wal-Mart) and another methadone clinic instead. LOL Will have to try it out once it opens which looks to be within 60 days. Sunny Isles is nice in that it is just 5-10 minutes to Adventura Mall which is nice and tons of other shopping is nearby along with a decent, and soon to come more, walking distance stuff. The $1M+ condo glut is gonna hurt though. And if they continue to develop Haulover Park, that place is pretty darn huge for a park, that would be great with the Marina and all.
When I was driving by Mary Brickell Village today I thought to myself, what the hell is going on w/ Skyline at MBV. This project was supposed to break ground in ’05, was it canceled? Anyone here have a contract there or know whats going on with it? I always thought it had a pretty cool design, guess that doesn’t really matter too much these days.
Let’s not get carried away…..sunny isles is boring a fawk and old folks central. If cougars are your thing than its probably ok, but come on. Downtown may not be the be-all-end-all by any means, but the whole ‘my city can beat up your city’ is silly. Different areas have different draws for different people…but you guys’ constant bashing of each other and where you chose to hang your hat is getting tired.
Christian,
Skyline at MBV is being built directly on top of the allotted Gourmet Publix retail space. The construction has been purposefully delayed, and closings were pushed back until December of 2011. Deposit holders were offered the opportunity to get their deposits fully refunded about a year and a half ago. My understanding is that Evangeline & Co. were able to renegotiate their construction contracts on more favorable terms and secure more favorable financing, as well. The elevator shafts and building generator have been installed. Real construction should begin soon.
Lucas,
Please get those Met 1 numbers.
Lucas or Samir,
Could you tell me how to look up this information?? What is the website?? And what keywords should I enter for 900 ???
Tom, Epicure is accross the Lincoln Road movie theaters. When they open in SIB, just stick with your Walmart TV dinners. You may not stomach Epicures sophisticated wine/cheese, gourmet meat and dessert section or their prices. Oh, by the way, Do you really like hanging out on the Haulover with 70 year old bald paunchy men walking around naked? I am imploring you to leave that retirement ghetto and come down to where the action is. Just ask Alex of MUL. Go to one of his downtown parties to see how exciting living here (downtown) would be.
Another tip, if you like to walk on beach, try the Nikki Beach and see some sizzling hot bods for a change.
JL,
That is exactly what I have been saying. With all due apologies to all the bloggers on this site who booked a flat in Icon, What in the World were you thinking??? The project looked like crap even in the shiny brochures they first provided. Looked like 3 low income projects cramped so claustrophobically close to each other with absolutely no character what so ever. Even location wise, the 4 Embarassments are better off than Icon Brickell. Why would anyone pay $600/sf in 2005 to book a flat in this eye sore? Were you expecting it to sell for $800/SF in 2008? I think even $400/sf for this eye sore is too much. Can any investor in this building explain to us candidly what they saw.
Lucas and Samir,
Thanks for the correction to Quantum numbers. I was unhappy when I saw the initial uncorrected numbers. I feel that Quantum and 18 are very related and affect each others well being. But thankfully both buildings have reached or crossed the critical 70% threshold. I guess the sluggish North Tower of Quantum is doing well now.
I have a theory as to why 1800 only increased its closing from 66% to 69% in 2 months. Talk is that BCom, Inc holds the unclosed units totally free and clear of any loans, liens and Mortgage. They are very bullish about their product and absolutely do not discount more than 5-6% of the asking price of their flats and lofts. So they seem to have the holding power.
So with the 120 units in 50 biscayne going to a bulk buyer putting it over the curve, we can declare 50B as the first Lux sector building to achieve the complete close out. So infact a complete success!
Lucas,
One Miami is one of my favorite buildings but is in a lot of hot water as I hear. How much of the building is sold? Is it fully closed? Tks.
Nice article, gives you some context about what’s happening in the Ivy/Wind area. It seems they’re putting a bunch of condos and a lot of manicured green space behind a fence to keep the undesirables around the Miami River at bay. Idea kind of makes sense although I still wouldn’t want to live there.
http://www.philadelphia.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2008/05/05/focus2.html
http://www.miamicondolifestyle.com/images/mint-siteplan.jpg
Renter Tom………..I have been reading this blog for some time now,and can see that you are an EXPERT authority on Real Estate in your area.I think a lot like you and respect your opinion’s.Can I ask a serious question? I …like you are waiting on the sideline’s for a REAL DEAL.Of course nobody knows …even you when the bottom is going to hit.I like Sunny Isles and would like a nice 2/2 Ocean view.MY QUESTION is…what would you have to pay TODAY for a nice unit on a higher floor with direct ocean view? And do you think that in the near future they will decline even more?? Any help at all would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.
LUCAS or SAMIR or ANYONE ELSE…..
How do I find the records on closed sales for 900 Biscayne….I am curious as to what these went for. Is the site miamidade.gov? And what is the keyword to search for 900??? When I search by address, I get nothing. What am I doing wrong???
All eye’s & ear’s – That is a tough one for several reasons. First, there are a ton of units that will be coming on the market (Trump Tower II, Trump Tower III, Jade Ocean, Jade Beach, St. Tropez (across the street) and of course buildings that are occupied that range from Tump Tower I, the two Turnberry Ocean Colonies, Sayan, (Oceanias were from mis-late 1990’s), La Perla, Aqualina, the three other Trumps buildings, etc. As such, I just can’t put a number on where pricing will end up…..so much inventory being brought to market in some very lux buildings with high HOA fees (and taxes too). You can go from $300-$600 s.f. to be directly on the beach. Second, the only true price indicator that one can really rely on is rent rates in this uncertain environment since we know that is what someone is actually willing to pay for shelter, not speculative home price appreciation, and no one has published those numbers for these new buildings yet. Getting stats on rents would be very helpful, maybe more helpful than closing prices right now. Being able to buy a prime unit with phenomenal view for $250/s.f. looks low risk, $400/s.f. in the right building might be OK too, but $500/s.f.+???? As I previously mentioned, banks are not or are very very strict on lending in these buildings with one story of $2.25M down and the other $2.25M couldn’t get financing for that…. Yes there are cash buyers, but no enough to support this market as indicated at the dead resale market in some buildings these past few months. The reckless enthusiasm is gone once you realize the fun condo might be a costly albatross that you can’t get rid of without a very substantial loss. If you need to buy now or next year, start searching. You will get a feel for the buildings and prices and what just sits and sits on the market.
My area is anywhere from SoBe to Ft. Lauderdale. I have a good sense of Sunny Isles which is a convenient location for now. I have glanced at things south but don’t have a real feel, haven’t explored north yet. There just isn’t a rush given what is going on and the certainty that prices are going to continue to slide through 2009. It isn’t like these things are being gobbled up. Even a decent closing rate in new condo buildings doesn’t tell the story of what is going to be put right back on the market soon. There are a lot of people who psychologically can’t walk away from their 15% deposit and are of the mindset that if they ride this thing out they will somehow be ahead (money and time wise, they won’t be in many many cases). It is like the irrational gambling mindset where many people can’t walk away when they are ahead and continue to gamble, or when you hear about the big wins but not the big losses. You will know a bottom is here when inventories come down (6 months is a fairly balanced market), banks lend based on credit worthiness and don’t avoid regions and buildings en masse, rentals at least break even before tax considerations, etc. We still have a sense of desperation out there, sellers really want out and rentals are whatever they can get. Start looking but be patient. Trust realtors at your own risk.
I wish I had access to the MLS inside info, then I would get a better feel for recent sales and rent comps.
“Among the largest 100 metro areas, Miami- Fort Lauderdale had the highest percentage of cash-strapped homeowners with mortgages. Nearly six out of 10 homeowners with mortgages there are spending 30% or more of their income on housing. Stockton, Calif.; Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif.; Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.; and Los Angeles-Long Beach round out the top five.”
– USAToday 9/23/2008
That is one stat that would indicate home prices will continue to go down and become more affordable and foreclosures will continue at a record pace…no more home ATM.
Hey guys,
Is their a quick way to to gauge the true market value of a building using the rental price?
I have been using the formula 1.25X where X is the rental price which should include the HOA, taxes etc. However, in a bear market like this, the market value can go below the above formula, does that mean the prices should rise in the near future once the economy stabilizes?
Vic,
The best way is, you look into a crystal ball.