New Miami Condos – Closing Rates for May 2008
May 28, 2008 by Lucas Lechuga
Below you will find the date that each condo development began closings:
- Ten Museum Park - June 14, 2007
- Star Lofts on the Bay - June 20, 2007
- Latitude on the River - July 27, 2007
- Onyx on the Bay - July 31, 2007
- Loft Downtown 2 - September 26, 2007
- 50 Biscayne - October 1, 2007
Even with the overstatement of closed units corrected, Loft Downtown 2 still has the best closing rate of any condo development located in Miami included in this post, and the second best overall. Loft Downtown 2 isn't as close to hitting the 100 percent mark as I had previously thought, but it's doing comparatively quite well. The overall closing rate at 50 Biscayne increased slightly over 6 points while the rest, in the group above, increased 2.52 points or less, since the last update.
As over half of this group approaches the one year mark since their closings began, a few interesting questions come to mind. What is happening to the defaulted condos? Are developer's leasing them and holding until the market gets better or are they hoping for onesy and twosy buyers to come along to slowly deplete their inventory? Are any of these developers feeling the pain yet? I've heard that at least one of these condo developers has been for a few months. If that's true, then when, if ever, are we going to see some bulk sales?
- 1800 Club - November 27, 2007
- Brickell on the River South - December 17, 2007
- Opera Tower - December 28, 2007
- Quantum on the Bay - January 3, 2008
- Plaza on Brickell - January 7, 2008
- Apogee South Beach - January 16, 2008
I'm sure glad he's proving me wrong. Those were my first thoughts when looking at the chart above. My second thoughts are that Apogee South Beach has continued to make great strides in closing its condos. Apogee has improved almost 15 points since my last update. Quantum on the Bay and 1800 Club, the only other two condo developments in the group above the 50 percent mark, each continued to show nice progress as well.
Below you will find the date that each condo development began closings:
- 1060 Brickell - January 23, 2008
- Midtown 4 - February 15, 2008
- Marina Blue - February 27, 2008
- Wind - February 28, 2008
- Asia - April 4, 2008
Marina Blue is off to a very good start. Pretty impressive from a condo development that started closings so late in the game. Asia is doing relatively well given that it had its first closing less than two months ago. However, Asia has only 123 total units. I'm expecting that we'll some good progress in Asia's closing rate next month. I guess we'll have to wait for the next update, however, to find out.
Disclaimer: The above closing rate information was derived from public County records. There can be a 2-3 week delay from the time that a closing occurs and the time that the closing is recorded.
Would be good numbers for the early closing buildings if there weren’t so many units for sale in all of them.
Kind of makes the closing numbers as a supply/demand statistic moot.
Marina Blue is the biggest surprise. I am pleasantly surprised that it hit almost 50% mark so soon. Looks like the owners have a lot of faith in that building and Park west. Good news. Confidance is what we need to turn this economy and the slump around. Looking forward to the numbers of 900 biscayne.
Even though I am very happy that 1800 is 2/3 closed and Quantum is very near there, I was disappointed that 18 has only 6% improvement in the past 2 months. Owners, HELLO, You have a winner here. Close on 1800 and Quantum and live happily ever after (dont close if you want to sell it right away)
I feel bad for the 25% people who closed on Opera Tower (the last report it was 15%). Are they not seeing the writing on the wall? I have been inside Opera yesterday, The finishes, elevators, the pool and the pool deck are good (or may be even great). Other than that the units and hallways are claustrophobic. appliances stink. I just couldnt wait to get out. It will be fantastic as a hotel as the building is cute and rooms are small. But for a long term living, a definite no-no. This is a building which would have done very well in closet sized apt’s buildings of Tokyo and Hong Kong. But in the +sized America, it is a bad design.
Once again, Lucas, Great job and Thanks.
In a previous post on another thread, I was sneering at Wind by Neo, I was not sure if I am justified to disparage a building I did not really know much about. But after I saw the closing numbers, I feel justified. The building sucks (From outside, I dont know how it is inside, I am pretty sure no better) and the location sucks. I will make it my new punching bag. Move aside Opera.
Great work Lucas… This is great info.
Because you have the data, it would be great to see a small table showing the total number of units in the building, the number closed and then the number for sale on MLS.
I think the closing rate is a good measurement of the success of the building, but seeing how a lot of people are still closing and hoping to sell, it would be even better to see how many units are actually for sale.
A % of closed unit that are for sale would be interesting. Say 36% have closed but 18% or building for sale or 50% of the closed units are for sale. That would be a telling statistic.
I cannot belive that onyx on the bay is still own by the developers!!!!. Is Corus Bank of Chicago is still in business??.
Do you calculate in foreclosings?
A lot of those units can be pre-sold just to be returned to the developer
Very happy to see Marina Blue doing well. I really like that building. Seems Ten Museum is at a stand still. Can’t wait to see the numbers for 900…
Lucas,
Thanks again for keeping this up. I’m also very impressed by Marina Blue’s progress in such a short period of time. Apogee’s success is also amazing considering it caters to such a high-end market.
From what I’ve heard, 50 Biscayne is still doing 2-3 closings per week. Slowly but surely the closings are happening.
I just wonder how many of these closings are done by (1) owner occupants, (2) investors looking to flip, and (3) investors looking to rent and hang in there for the long term?
** On another note, it’s nice to see 50 Biscayne is winning the poll on your site! 🙂
Thanks again Lucas! I heard from some UK investors that seven Onyx units closed 10 days ago. and anoter 10 are due to close soon. every little bit helps?
Anyone know when Ivy will begin closings….
Ohhh Neo is feeling the pain.
Thats what happens when you sell falsley advertised units. They tried selling people 2bed 2 bath when they were really 1 bed 1 baths and a den even on the 3 bedrooms ame ol trick , lol nice try Neo. But the people have spoken. 11% ouch!
Here’s a new trick. Developers leaving lights on in empty units to give an impression of activity in the building. Has anyone noticed both 900 and Marina Blue lite up more than any other buildings? The same thing happened at 1800 and Quantum about four months ago.
I cannot possibily imagine anyone closing on Asia, unless they are delusional, drunk or both. This building was sold at the highest price per square foot anywhere off the beach.
I think this fortune cookie is going to crack wide open and have a higher default rate than many want to imagine. AHHH-SOOOO
By the way I see Jade has come down 100’s of thousands recently. You can get a 1,700 square foot condo there for around $1,035,000. (and you can problably offer 975k and they will take it) It was almost double this at the height of the “my best friend is my banker, and I need to give him back some cash in a brown paper bag” good old days.
Nuff said
Hi people! The foreclosures are just getting started.
1,700 square foot condo at Jade… more like $750K not $975K.
This brings up an interesting point… What the heck is going on there? Is it going to go to Zero?
Is it just me or does it seem like condo owners are starting to finally throw in the towel on the Beach. I haven’t checked out the Zilbert site in a while and when I just did now, you couldn’t help but notice all the yellow in SoBe (yellow = new listings). Flamingo seemed like a big highlight and Murano Grande and Waverly definitely seemed more yellow than ever before… was it possibly due to Zilbert just changing his methodology or something I don’t know about?
The closing rates for Midtown4 are abysmal but I have high (hopefully not unrealized) hopes for the concept of what the developers planned. Maybe when Ocean Drive magazine, Sugar Cane lounge, and the fancy gym that are planned to open become reality, more people will gravitate to this area. I think the units here rival anything in the category of Quantum or 1800. In fact I have friends at those buildings and I, unbiased of course, think midtown is superior; atleast, on the inside of the unit. The mediocre gym and non-existent club room are another matter.
I live there now and really like being central to everything Miami has to offer. I think of all the areas that are up and coming, this one offers the most for young, urban, non millioniares. This is just my humble opinion and wish, please don’t clog the blog with all the disparaging remarks I have so far heard about my beloved midtown. 🙂 I know it is not everyone’s cup of tea.
This one is for you Lucas:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/79166-realtors-prepare-to-lose-your-6-percent
Waverly has had about 60 units for sale for at least six months now.
Lucas,
Closing rates: For statistical reasons, you should take the same % scale for all comparisons.
2 or 3 closings a week is a joke on pre-contruction contracts. Looks like location is still the number 1 rule in real estate. Only 1 condo on beach in the survey and it blows the others away. Don’t sue me, but poor Opera views are dismal at best and some units don’t even have washer/dryer hookups.
Didn’t the Opera Building have some major issues? Pipes bursting, etc.
Hi Storm,
Midtown is a great concept and I for one always love living on or next to a mall (may be I was a mall rat in my last life). The neighborhood is a little sketchy but I am 100% sure, it is going to get gentrified very soon. My only issue with Midtown is that the developers have skimped out on the roads. A single (yes a SINGLE) lane road next to a major mall!? If one car stops, it will cause havoc. How the city permitted that is beyond me. Other than that Midtown is a nice up and coming middle class neighborhood.
Dear POO, What exactly is the ruling they are talking about? Do you know more? I posed this question on that site. Does anyone know the answer to this. I repeat the question:
“This article or the posters failed to answer one biggest question on my mind.
Will this ruling make the MLS available to non real estate people like me? My only recourse is now to post on the Craigs list and it gets inundated with hundreds of posts. I always wished, I could post my for sale sign on the MLS with out listing with a broker.
Please someone anwser my question, once again, I repeat:
WILL THIS RULING MAKE THE MLS SYSTEM AVAILABLE TO THOSE OUTSIDE NAR (national association of realtors) to post properties for sale?”
THANKS
AJ
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121199607806026533.html?mod=RealEstateMain_1
Storm, I agree that the Midtown projects are superior to many other developments. The location is also improving significantly over time.
AJ, good point about the single lane roads. I’ve been there when it’s busy and it can easily get jammed up if a car stops in the way. Doesn’t look like they left much room for expansion either.
Meet the neighbors at Midtown:
http://www.miamiurbanlife.com/group/midtown2
http://www.miamiurbanlife.com/group/midtown4
Lucas,
Do the Quantum figures include both towers?
What about Plaza on Brickell?
JBrando,
Yes.
AJ,
Not from what I’ve read. It’s just going to allow discount brokerages access to the MLS. Some discount brokers were shut out in the past. They still need to be licensed though. This ruling won’t be a big deal until the market gets hot again.
Agree with the comment about the lights being put on soem condos when no one livs in them. I drove by one night say 9pm and no lights then the next night 40% of lights were on. Doesnt make any sence. I think i was a ploy cause thsi happened when there was that festival the other weekend in Bayside/Biceentenial Park. Could have been to show people ohh yeah people ive here and they can see eveything going on at the park wouldnt you want to live here too so you wouldnt have to drive. I think it’s definitly a ploy to fool people cause eveyone always talks about have you seen those condos there no lights on nobody lives there.
I saw this at MB and a few in 900. MB was the bigest 24 hour light up from day to next day so seems suspect to me. TMP is over it and seems stalled s no need to fake light.
jcrimes….thx for posting the WSJ article. Very intersting.
One of the items in that article says that there are homes out west in FL that have zero value. That is a scary though. I dont think it is out of the question that many condos in downtown Miami may have zero value.
Someone on this blog had mentioned that condos in brickell in the 80’s were being sold for “free” as long as you paid HOA and taxes. Looks like history is going to repeat itself.
I hear and read all this doom and gloom. Can someone out there please tell me how a broker can list a 900 sqft 1 bedroom condo in Ten Museum for 560K over 622 $/sf? When will the MLS reflect real pricing???
I would love to make an offer but feel guilty offering 250K for a condo listed at 560K. I believe that if MLS prices were more reasonable more units would get offers and eventually sold.
Dear Condo Developer,
I am a private contracter available for hire. I specialize in light switch operations in condo projects. Currently I am available for light switch operation to immediately make your project look successful. I operate each light switch independently in 100 plus condo units, and vary timing to give a more lived in look to your quality condo.
thank you for your consideration.
David Smart
CEO of Turnkey Light Productions
I may be contacted at, [email protected]
Lucas,
Thanks for answering my question.
So I guess I would never get to lay my hands on the holy grail called MLS unless I have a real estate license 🙁
Once Again
The new tainted kool aid is the buildings being lite up like Christmas trees. It is total BS and a ploy to attract contract holder and all others considering the building like moths to the flame (as Miss Jackson says). I was one of the early closers at Quantum (Terra Group like 900 Biscayn), from early on I could see the lights from the Miami Beach Side. Being to investigator that I am I decided to check some of the floor plans other than mine, door after door that I opened had the lights lite yet the units had not closed. Hummm? It’s no coincidence that these lights were left on. Leaving lights on is the best advertisement and delivers a message to the very soul of those on the fence about closing. Like moths to flame those who close will get burnt if the plan to rent, flip or make a cent of $$ within the next eight years.
just a head sup on the lights on in new condos to make it look like it’s occupied. drove by on my way to SOBE at 10pm and a bunch of lights were on at Marina Blue and 900. Left Sobe at 2:45am and guess what the same lights are on. Dunno about anyone else but this is such a scam I would find it hard pressed that so many so called residents would have their lights on at 230am. I mean it was ridicoulous the amoutn of units with lights on at 230am doesnt make sence so it’s seems to be just another scam. In fact when I saw Ten Museum there was only 1 ligh ton on the units facign east which sounds fine cause prob any other residents would have been asleep.
So sorry all not fact on this but most likely the scam has been exposed that there still isnt that many people living there.
So what’s wrong with leaving the lights on for advertisement purposes.
Thank you Lara; exactly WHO CARES !!!!!
Let the developers leave the lights on if they so desire !!!!
Lucas, thanks for the data-certainly helps in gaging the outlook for each building.
For buildings without significant closings-say for example Plaza at this point with only about 40% closing. What is happening with the other 60% units not closed? Are the developers actively shopping them around? Is there a chance to make a good deal on these units? Must you use a RE broker to investigate these, or are the sales people for the development a better source for availability? Just wondering if this is an avenue to pursue in the future. I have not heard much regarding new buyers purchasing directly from the developer-but have heard much about old buyers trying to get away from the developer.
lara – I guess it’s like that movie “Weekend at Bernie’s” (stupid movie) where you go around and have good time pretending he’s alive…just like some of those condo developments. Next on the staging front from furniture, to turning on lights, soon will be fake residences going in and out of the condo repeatedly like on the Truman Show… too funny.
Spoof on the famous JP Morgan CEO: “Jamie Dimon Style Condo Vulturing in Miami”.
Gables,
You have a better shot of getting a deal from a closed unit which is on the MLS thank from the developer owned unit. I have no idea why a developer is holding on so tough with regards to discounting his units. He already has 20% from the people who walked away. Jorge Perez says that these are very valueble units in the future and he will hold on to them. Many other developers are doing the same. They would rather give it for pennies on the dollar (45 to 60 cents)to a bulk or cash buyer in a behind the scene, secret deals than sell it you and me for 20% off (80 cents on the dollar off of preconstruction prices). I understand that they are trying to uphold the value of the units, but the logic seems to defy logic!
actually renter tom…the wab analogy isn’t so far fetched. the forge (which is actually a good restaurant…not great, but good) hires models to sit at tables during peak hours to beautify the place and give the appearance of a chic crowd.
gables,
I have a client who was expected to close on his unit in the 901 Tower at Plaza on Brickell towards the end of February. He still hasn’t closed and he wants to really bad. I know that Plaza is doing very well as far as sales go but I’m not sure why it is taking them forever to close units.
I guess you could call it Weekend at Marina Blue then. I guess they are trying to sell the vision…like the brochures and website videos. When projects go bad things can really drag out and then the lawyers get involved…….endless problems.
Does anybody know what the sale prices are being offered by the developer at Plaza? I saw the lowest MLS for a 2B2B for $370k. Is the developer offering anything near this list price?
What about a building like TMP or Latitude? These are nearly 80% closed. Any chance they will liquidate the remaining at a good price?
Keep looking for info on Met1 and found nothing. Any news on this building?
AJ, I feel the same as you. 80% now is cheaper than the carrying costs and loss later, not sure why their number crunchers are holding out. I’ve mentioned before, $300k will form a mark for sales to pick up for 2B2B units. Ballpark that is about $300 sq ft, and prices will not hold out above that over the next few years.
The developers are stuck in a no-win situation. The market is too risky for any “bulk buyer” to come in unless a very substantial discont is offered from the “current going rate”
Now if Developer’s start to get real and try to sell some inventory on a retail level by slashing 20%… guess what, they just dropped the current going rate by 20% so a bulk buyer is going to have to readjust their math downwards.
At the end of the day, I think most developers realize the amount they would have to slash thier units on a retail level to make a dent in their inventory would pretty much close the door on their ability to get any bulk buyers at a price above a fire sale. They’re stuck between a rock and a hard place…