New Miami Condos – Closing Rates for December 2008
December 14, 2008 by Lucas Lechuga
Below, you will find the date that each condo development began closings followed by the number of closed units in each condo development:
- Ten Museum Park - June 14, 2007 - (165)
- Latitude on the River - July 27, 2007 - (374)
- Onyx on the Bay - July 31, 2007 - (73)
- Loft Downtown 2 - September 26, 2007 - (444)
- 50 Biscayne - October 1, 2007 - (528)
Latitude on the River had three new closings since the last update, Onyx on the Bay had three new closed condos and 50 Biscayne had two. Ten Museum Park and Loft Downtown 2 were both unchanged since the last update.
- 1800 Club - November 27, 2007 - (322)
- Brickell on the River South - December 17, 2007 - (171)
- Opera Tower - December 28, 2007 - (235)
- Quantum on the Bay - January 3, 2008 - (552)
- Plaza on Brickell - January 7, 2008 - (706)
- Apogee South Beach - January 16, 2008 - (65)
Quantum on the Bay and Plaza on Brickell each had an impressive number of closings, since the last update, considering how long ago closings began. Quantum on the Bay had 28 new condo closings while Plaza on Brickell was able to close 46.
- 1060 Brickell - January 23, 2008 - (232)
- Midtown 4 - February 15, 2008 - (339)
- Marina Blue - February 27, 2008 - (369)
- Wind - February 28, 2008 - (213)
- Asia - April 4, 2008 - (64)
On Friday, the Miami Herald reported that the developer of 1060 Brickell is looking to sell around 60 percent of its condos in bulk. Closings at 1060 Brickell recently reached the 40 percent mark meaning that this represents the developer's remaining inventory.
- Met 1 - April 30, 2008 - (143)
- 900 Biscayne Bay - May 5, 2008 - (210)
- 500 Brickell - May 14, 2008 - (196)
- Axis - May 19, 2008 - (161)
- Ivy - June 12, 2008 - (205)
900 Biscayne Bay and Ivy have now each reached the 40 percent mark. I'm actually quite surprised that not one of the condo developments in this last group has been able to hit the 50 percent mark. Enough time has certainly gone by. To rev up sales, 500 Brickell recently held a 4-day promotion offering a free Mini Cooper with any condo purchase from the developer's inventory.
The next update will include Icon Brickell, Everglades on the Bay (now known as Vizcayne) and Infinity at Brickell which recently began closings.
Disclaimer: The above closing rate information was derived from public County records. There can be a 2-3 week delay from the time that a closing occurs and the time that the closing is recorded.
Lucas,
Thanks for the update. Great to see some numbers since the financial storm hit. The recent condo activity appears to be terrible, although i expected that under these financial conditions. Could you possibly provide the total number of closings over this period?
Looks like we may start to see the separation of building haves and have nots. Seems like buildings over 70% may survive, but i see quite a number of buildings with under 50% closings. this is going to create a large problem for those particular buildings, and will also keep downward price pressure for all buildings. my guess is we are going to see many more renters in the downtown area than any developer or buyer had hoped for. since these folks pay rent according to income, they will further put downward pressure on sale prices. the buildings with over 70% closings will most likely be in much better position for a recovery than the remaining buildings, where the developer or some other agent will most likely turn half the building into a commercially run rental complex for 5 to 10 years. although that may be a better deal than a bunch of amateur landlords…
Plaza has certainly surprised me. While i like the building, i did not expect so many closings. I think it is overpriced. Is the developer providing any discounts or incentives to close? Compared to another Related property, 500 Brickell, there appears to be significant differences in closings, even when considering different start dates. any insight to why plaza has done fairly well? and what happened to asia? thought this was full of high value buyers who were immune from a downturn?
honestly, i’m surprised by the difference in rates, especially when you consider that a lot of these buildings are similar when you cut to the chase and started closing around the same time.
gables,
You asked almost all the questions I wanted to ask! But I can add on to what you said.
I am very pleased with Quantum. Plaza is a major surprise. It is a good building and people fell in love with it. Even Opera did better!! from 34 to 37%. Who would have thunk?
I have an explanation why 1800 hit a wall after 69% (actually it is supposed to have closed 70.2% by the buildings estimate, the difference with Lucas’s numbers are minimal anyway). The developer it seems does not discount a dime on the units he holds. He is in a very comfortable situation and very strongly believes in his product. He is renting them while waiting to sell them one by one in the next 3 years. The only deal that can be had in 1800 is from another home owners who really wants to get out. So I guess we are going to see the 70% for a very long time in 1800. In any case, people are resigned to the fact that the developer of 1800 is just another homeowner, but with 140 units out of a 469 unit building. Albeit a home owner with an extremely strong financial position paying his share of the dues. That is a happy situation given the circumstances. It is similar to related group buying its own units in 50 biscayne and pushing the closing rate to 97%. In the same yardstick 1800 can be considered 100% closed, with the only difference that the developer is not holding the remaining units through a front organization or corporation but holding them himself in the name of the Bcom Inc.
I am very surprised at the MB closing numbers. I just don’t understand why 900 is doing poorly while its neighbor is rocketing towards stability. I liked and also thought 900 to be a superior product over MB (No offense to MB owners). Is it because 900 is the most expensive of all (super lux or ultra lux category)? If this is the fate of 900 which had a head start before the financial implosion, what can you expect of the remaining ultra lux that are about to come on the market? One wonders.
Met 1 is another dud. What impact will it have on Epic across the street?
Midtown 4 numbers are surprising. How did it do so well? Asia is surprising too. It was supposed to be geared towards rich people ala the purchasers at Apogee. It is languishing at 52%. What ever happened?
Overall, The numbers are nearly close to what I expected with a few minor exceptions.
Thanks again to Lucas for such a nice public service of keeping us informed.
thunk?
jcrimes, i agree. that is why i was a bit puzzled by the difference between plaza and 500. developers may have to realize that to move the units in the low closing buildings, either find a bulk buyer like avenue is trying, or drop your sale price to an equivalent price and let the common public move the units. at some point, the developers must realize all the “luxury” appliances, floors, etc do not add up to a $100k+ premium. a bare condo now runs for under $200 sq ft, and the “luxury” adds at most about $50 sq ft, putting a typical 2B in the neighborhood of $250k. but they may have waited too long into a deflating economy to get even that out of their units now.
A 70% closing rate with even half of that (35%) being rented by 100 different floplords with some desperate and others going into foreclosure as time goes by, not a building I would want to buy in. Even a stable building has significant start up HOA issues, but one coming out of the gate already on life support is not good at all. To rent maybe, since no real risk, just hassles. The severity of this pullback in home values has exposed a lot of weak positions and exacerbated a lot of people near the margins too. I was hoping 2009 would turn out to be a decent year to make a purchase, but isn’t looking like it as of now, will continue to reevaluate as more information comes in. I guess it is no big deal since I am very happy with what I am renting (happier than I thought I would be since I have always owned) and this just gives me a lot more time to explore every area and building… The more info the better…
“rocketing towards stability’ …..ha ha ha, that is the funniest thing I have heard in a long time!
met 1 is a bit of a surprise to me. i actually like the building exterior and location. i understand from some on this blog the interior was not all it could have been. was it that bad on the inside, or just not the luxury people were looking for? i see this building as one which should be affordable, a step up from the loft buildings in downtown, but would attract a professional crowd with its location. has nice water views, and should be near a commercial hub in the next few years. i would consider buying there if prices were reasonable.
Does anyone have info on Met1? I agree it is a dud, but the middle floorplan is quite a nice 2/2 with supposedly a great bay view. Also, the future of the area with the met center sounds pretty interesting
further, why are there so few units listed? reminds me of MB when it was first opening…does the developer prohibit listing on the mls?
AJ — How is the gym at 1800? Does the pool deck include an outdoor jacuzzi?
i live at plaza on brickell.
i went last week to sales office and i have to say that 901 building is almost sold out. just few unites lefts. the other building 901 started closing few months ago and thats why you see 70% closing rate. plus developer rented few units at 901 with option to buy.
otherwise would be over 90%
all the best units are gone. just couple left. i wanted to upgrade to a bigger one and i talked to the sales people.
even only few penthouses are left. plaza on brickell has a waiting list for rentals. people just wanna be in cause its is across the street of marry brickell village.
so renting is no problem at all.
Joe — how is the elevator in the morning? parking? any general complaints with living there?
I hope you guys caught 60 minutes.
Words fail me.
Lucas….
You stated there were three closings at Latitude on the River since your last update yet when I checked recent sales on your site the last sale was reported on May 16.
According to the public records that you used as your source, can you quote the price per square foot that these units sold for and when.
Much appreciated.
I saw the 60 minutes episode.
How could things have gotten so bad? Tough times are a comin’.
I can answer why the Midtown4 numbers are so high. Everybody in the building is renting from the developer. I believe he bought the unsold units out to rent. It’s a nice place to live and was the epicenter during Art Basel.
Lucas,
Great Job!
Would you be able to do the same for South Beach?
Has anyone participated in todays REDC auction?
Michael,
The three closed sales don’t appear on the recent sales page because only resales appear there. The three closed sales were developer sales that recently closed.
Link to 60 minutes “A Second Mortgage Disaster On The Horizon?”
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/12/12/60minutes/main4666112.shtml
The reference to a building that was 100% sold with 25% in foreclosure.. I assume that’s Jade?
Lucas,
Can you tell me the prices paid on those three Latitude developer units?
Joe,
18 has one of the best gyms I have seen in new buildings. They could definitely use some bench presses and incline presses. Other than that it is well equipped. The double height and the industrial design interiors are eye catching. The bay view is incredible from the gym. It is very entertaining to see all the activity in the Pace park while you are on the tread mills or working out, you may have hard time to choose between looking at the TV’s or outside!
Yes there is a Jacuzzi outside on the pool deck (A source of envy for our neighbors at Quantum, who look on the 18 pool deck and curse at Terra for skimping on a hot tub and steam room). Even the pool water is always maintained at a balmy 87 degrees. It is a real pleasure to swim. The only problem is the wind tunnel effect. If there is 20 mile wind, it gets amplified to 30 miles in the tunnel. very annoying. Eventually I will campaign to install wind deflectors or just close the hole with glass windows. Even though it looks cool, no building should be built with a hole in the middle or at least don’t build a pool in the hole.
storm,
you only surface if there is a comment on Midtown 4.
I don’t remember the last time you posted. One of the mangers at Mondrian rents in your building. Haven’t been to Midtown on this trip to Miami. I Should have checked out. But keep us posted about life out there, new developments, new business openings etc. I believe Ocean Drive is published out of there.
sooo, does anyone have info on met?
AJ —Funny you mentioned that Quantum skimped on the hot tub. It might not be important to many people, but when I was considering purchasing there it bothered me that this amenity wasn’t offered. In light of the fact that there are many medical field people at 1800 with not a great deal of free time would I be correct in assuming that the pool deck is underutilized and fairly empty most of the time? Not that I would expect it to be like the Flamingo, but I was just wondering if it’s totally dead. And how is the noise transmission between condo units?
Joe,
weekends, the pool is well utilized. Lots of beautiful people tanning on the beds. Some residents and some visitors. Weekdays the pool deck is dead. Noise transmission was never a problem. I could not hear the TV from the neighbors. The noise from own a/c unit is an issue for many. It is a loud friggin unit but extremely energy efficient and cooling. People put some noise insulating barriers to address that problem. I like the SOBE buildings where the a/c unit is outside the flat. But you cant have everything I guess.
Also regarding the noise, 18 is not a party building. It is the closest to a bedroom community you can get in a condo building. So if someone has a loud party some where close by with thumping music, I cannot tell you as it rarely if ever happens. One interesting episode, my immediate neighbors had a party for 20 people. They knocked on my door at 10 pm and profusely apologized for any sound or inconvenience etc, invited me over , after I politely declined , sent me some great food and goodies. But the funny thing is that I never heard even a squeak! I didn’t complain as I had some great food and tres leches cake due to their guilt.
as for midtown…curious to see how the commercial aspect of the project plays out now that two anchor tenants are bust (linen’s & things and circuit city). we will witness just how strong the appeal of target really is.
as for ocean drive moving its HQ over there…well, jerry p. can throw all the hip parties he wants but at the end of the day, his revenues have to be down HUGE. his mags don’t make money from a subscriber base, that’s for sure. and the real estate developers and stores that paid him all the money for advertising space are suffering.
Did you guys see that 60 minutes spot? Freaking awesome. I’ve been watching a new condo building in Miami beach where 2 bedrooms sold for 1 million. Last sale in October was 420K. 32 units total with 4 in floreclosure, 5 still owned by developer and 13 for sale! Someone is already offering at 390K 2 months later! No takers. Every single purchaser is underwater! Can’t wait until prices hit 150 for the unit I’m lo0king at.
Peace.
AJ, and others—Thanks for all the info. I’ve lived in South Beach & was considering making the move to miami, to one of the new condos such as 1800. Do you find it a little too confining just having Pace Park to walk about your area compared with all of SoBe? I like that SoBe is so pedestrian friendly & fear that I’ll feel a bit isolated at 1800, especially without a car. I’m aware of new shops & restaurants in your area, but they seem so limited compared with the multitude & diversity at SoBe. Would you not liken your vicinity to that of Chelsea in NYC of 15 years ago with respect to the unrealized potential as of yet?
Lucas, again, great information.
Again, these numbers are very good to see where developers stand, but not really give you much information as to the status of each of these buildings for prospective buyers.
You need to also look at how many units are for sale on MLS by owners/investors/speculators to realize where the individual building stands.
For example, a building that is 78% closed like Quantum (698 total units), currently has about 60 units for sale on MLS. Based on the closing rates Lucas mentions, 146 units are still available from the developer. That is a total of 206 units available for sale or 30% of the building.
My opinion is that there are 2 options for the remaining units:
1) Developer closes out and reduces prices significantly to do so which drives every other price in the building (MLS) down. Auction is a possibility.
2) Developer or some other bulk buyer looks at a rental operation at which point they cannot justifiy a $300/sf sales price. Here is why:
Assume he can get $1.50/sf in rents (give or take) and pays about $0.40/sf in HOA fees. That nets out to $1.1/sf (not including taxes). If taxes are $7k year (2 BR unit, 1,400 sf), that would bring the net rent down to about $0.7/sf.
Now, I attended the distressed propery seminar held las week at the Diplomat where almost every investor/bulk buyer/hedge fund was speaking. Almost all of these funds are looking for cash flow purchases where they can hit close to a 7.5% return (again, back to historical averages). If you assume this as a cap rate, prices would be $112/sf. Yes, $112/sf. Pure and simple math.
Cash is king and it’s not stepping in unless there is a decent return to be made. If not, ask Lupert Adler/Related who has only made one purchase.
Anyone doubt that prices still need to go down?
—-
Now, I have said many times before in this blog that Option ARM’s would be the last dagger to the Miami Real Estate market and i seems that this is happening. Wamu was perhaps one of the biggest holders of these and it looks like the mess is still unfolding.
The stats that are mentioned on that 60 minutes spot are alarming ,and tif he predictions that 50%-70% of these will be delinquent in the next 2 years, prices will have no way to go but down. Way down.
joe
i know what AJ will say…but, as a beachnik, i don’t think there’s any comparison. there’s a lot to criticize about south beach…but one thing is certain – you are always within walking distance of something to do and your options are significantly greater than the pace park area. maybe in five years this dynamic will change, but if you’re talking about a year or two of renting, the choice is painfully clear where to be.
Unit 2106 at the Mark on Brickell Bay sold for $155,000 at the Sunday Auction. It was a 1-1.5 unit with 750 sq. ft. Lots of others in the same tier are listed in the $350,000 up range. What possible motive does anyone owing more than a unit worth have to keep paying the mortgage. Plenty will probably be leaving the key at the front desk on the way out. A newer 3-2.5 townhouse in Homestead went for $82,500 which actually might make a decent rental if half the town wasn’t for sale.
jcrimes—–I tend to feel similarly. I wish I could find a large fairly new condo comlex in South Beach similar to the ones opening up in Miami, but not at insane prices (to purchase). Any suggestions, or am I just fantasizing? And if you were to predict which area in miami would have more of a SoBe dynamic in say 5 or more years, which of these 3 would you select: Brickell, Pace Park or downtown between these two areas?
jcrimes,
for once you are wrong about me.
SOBE is a walkers paradise. I just walk walk walk. I walk all the way from West avenue to ICON marina, along the water to Apogee, South Point Park, to Ocean drive, Lummus Park, Lincoln road and back to West avenue. Some times I bicycle too. There is no place in the whole wide World as walker friendly and as walker interesting and amusing as SOBE. I will have a tough time to choose between My Old SOBE condo or my Swanky 1800 condo to live in when I move to Miami. Hopefully I am rich enough to keep both for myself!
Having said that,
Joe, Pace is large enough to walk. If I get bored, I walk on Biscayne boulevard all the way to 30th st. Very interesting. Some other days, I walk south and reach Museum Park, AAA steps, Bayside Marina, Bayfront park all the way to One Miami and Back. That is a good enough walk. Very scenic and very interesting. If this walk is too long for you, consider taking the Free Metro mover which is 2 blocks away from 1800, get off near the Intercontinental Hotel and then walk back along the Bayside Marina to 1800.
If you read my posts before, Pace Park is just like an extention of SOBE, connected to SOBE by 2 bridges. This is the only Mainland location in Miami from where you can actually walk to SOBE. Take the venetian Causeway and you will be in Lincoln Road in easy 30 minutes. Or Bicycle down to Ocean drive, Park your Bicycle and then walk in SOBE. The opportunities become endless. So regarding your question “If you are confined to Pace Park (However amusing and beautiful it is)”? My answer is HELL NO.
Chelsea Comparison? Chelsea took 30-40 years to gentrify from being a cuban ghetto to what it is now. Pace Park/OMNI will be unrecognisable in 3-4 years. Mark my words. Every 2 months, I get more surprised at the transformation. It is rapid and unstoppable. Financial meltdown not withstanding.
Jcrimes,
Yes, Ideally I would like to live on SOBE. But I dont have 2 milion dollars to live in Continuum II. So I will live in 1800 for 25% of the cost with similar amenities, living space, views and still have SOBE at my doorstep to enjoy. That is having the best of both Worlds.
AJ – For what it is worth, dump the downtown ASAP and just live on SoBe. There is no doubt that the downtown will fair very poorly….no matter how “swanky” (which won’t last by the end of 2009 as foreclosures mount). No reason to hype a sinking ship…people are already out on their lifeboats.
Oh. Let me add another choice of almost free transportation that will put you in SOBE from Pace Park.
From OMNI Terminal bus station (Right next to the Metro Mover, which is about 2 blocks from 1800), you can take 5 buses (FIVE!!) to SOBE and one night Owl. You get one almost every 5 minutes.
Take A, C, S, K, M or 246 night owl for $2, you are in SOBE. So if you do not want to Walk or Bicycle or Drive or Take a Taxi, you can get to SOBE cheaply enough. No other area in Mainland Miami is so well connected by public transport to SOBE as Pace Park area. And you could be in SOBE from Pace in under 10 minutes for $2. Brickell, Midtown, Downtown are not that fortunate in that respect.
Ocean Drive already closed down in Midtown. Its now published out of NYC.
Brian,
That is not good news. I hope it is not true.
AJ—–great post. Quite apropos to my situation, as I have lived in NYC & am accustomed to being within walking distance of what I need recreationally & of the necessities, such as food shopping. Speaking of which, where do you do your grocery store shopping? When I lived in SoBe I was able to walk to Publix.
AJ, you’re right about some things, but not about walking around 1800 club. Do you walk north up biscayne? hope you have a concealed carry permit. you’re going to get shot someday. Don’t say we didn’t warn you. As the recession worsens the criminals become more desperate.
Joe
the further you move up the beach, the better the deals. i’m actually a big fan of the 60s through 90s stretch on collins. some nice buildings that aren’t troubled (vilasol/vilamur/vilazul) although it’s definitely more quiet up there compared to south beach.
if you’re looking to buy in sobe and aren’t tied to the concept that you must have a water view, i think there’s about to be some great deals. cosmopolitan, montclair and meridian lofts are already showing some price weakness and this will become more pronounced in the next year. also some new stuff coming up in the art deco neighborhood that will be worthwhile once the bank steps in and takes over.
Biscayne Blvd is absolutely safe both day and night. You have to be as careful on B Blvd as you would be in any big city street. Starbucks on 30th st is doing good. There is continuous string of restaurants/shops on B Blvd all the way to Julia. There is always foot traffic at all times of the day and night.
2nd avenue is absolutely safe during the day. After 11 pm, you may use caution. But as more businesses open and more traffic, 2nd ave will be as good as any. The game changer would be the arrival of Bayview market at 17th st and 2nd Ave.
joe,
grocery shopping at price choice @ 2nd ave and 19th st (2 blocks from Q/18). Publix is set to arrive to the area soon. The closest publix is now is on B Blvd in the 50’s.
jcrimes,
from what I gather, joe seems to be not the type who would like Midbeach or North Beach or SIB or N Bay Village. Living there is like death to a lot of people. That is why when people mention good deals in these areas, it only appeals to retirees or the sedate.
Those who prefer action (until the day they die) or want to be among action, even if not an active participant would prefer SOBE or its natural extension Downtown. Anything else just wont cut it. When you step out of your building, you want to be in the middle of everything. The only areas that offer such excitement is SOBE, Pace Park, Park West, Downtown and to a lesser extent Brickell.
Questioning Downtown
Met One
Saw a 2 bdrm 2 bath there last week on the 15th floor 1200 Sq feet with a pretty nice water view to the bay – nice balcony – nice finishes – but the pool area is small in comparison to others and the lobby and hallways are plain not exceptional – no pizazz here at all. The asking price was $486,ooo. Im not sure how deep the developers pockets are but I would guess considerable price declines over the next year or less.
Downtown Miami, Park West and Pace Park are all very exciting. http://www.spotcrime.com/fl/miami
Wild Bill
Wild Bill – did you say you work for the Chamber Of Commerce or The Miami Visitors Bureau?
I guess he has never lived in a city before!
AJ said: “When you step out of your building, you want to be in the middle of everything. The only areas that offer such excitement is SOBE, Pace Park, Park West, Downtown and to a lesser extent Brickell.”
———–
Come on AJ, quit this Pace Park thing. Nobody in Miami has heard of it. It doesn’t register on the radar. The only people who know about it either live there or read this blog.
JL,
You are one of the informed guys. You cant talk like that.
In any case, how well people know a place is not a criteria for how nice it is. Sometimes the least known are the most top class. Until about a few years ago, No one ever even heard of Riverdale in NY. Even many long term New Yorkers. Even if they did hear the name, they have never even been there or seen it. Yet it is among the 5 most desirable places to live in NYC in all the boroughs put together. Exclusive, classy, low key but desirable.
If no one ever heard of Pace Park, I am happy about it. Let it be the best kept secret of Miami. As it is hordes of people have started to invade the Pace Park on weekends for picnicking or playing coming from as far as 25 miles away. I am afraid soon the residents will get displaced from the Park itself with the “Outsiders”.
Hugo P,
Enjoyed your post.
Here is my own real life example with easier numbers that I work out backwards.
I rent for $1650 (brand new 2/2 granite/marble 2 balconies…)
HOA is $750 and taxes work out at $600.
That means that $300 is the profit.
At 7.5% CAP = $48,000.
–
🙂
$48,000 / 1248 sqft = $38.50 sqft.
🙂
–
I’ve said it before, $75 sqft.
–
Why?
Because a lot of us would settle for slightly less than 4%.
(your HOA number and rental income was somewhat optimistic)