New Miami Condos – Closings Rates for July 2008
July 8, 2008 by Lucas Lechuga
Below you will find the date that each condo development began closings followed by the number of closed units in each condo development:
- Ten Museum Park - June 14, 2007 - (154)
- Star Lofts on the Bay - June 20, 2007 - (26)
- Latitude on the River - July 27, 2007 - (368)
- Onyx on the Bay - July 31, 2007 - (67)
- Loft Downtown 2 - September 26, 2007 - (415)
- 50 Biscayne - October 1, 2007 - (404)
Not much has changed with this first group of condo developments since the May update except with 50 Biscayne. It went from having around a 67% closing rate to about a 75% closing rate since the last update. However, I took a close look at the numbers and noticed that 26 of the 43 newly closed condos were deeded to TRG 50 Bisc Suites LLC. All 26 units were suite units. It appears as though The Related Group transferred these 26 units to another one of its own entities. I'm not exactly sure though. Even without these 26 units, 50 Biscayne would have had 17 newly closed units. Onyx on the Bay had 5 newly closed units.
- 1800 Club - November 27, 2007 - (318)
- Brickell on the River South - December 17, 2007 - (154)
- Opera Tower - December 28, 2007 - (186)
- Quantum on the Bay - January 3, 2008 - (450)
- Plaza on Brickell - January 7, 2008 - (520)
- Apogee South Beach - January 16, 2008 - (61)
Plaza on Brickell saw the most improvement in the group of condo developments above since the last update with a 13 point increase in closings. It now shows that 52% of the overall 1,000 units have closed. You'll also find slight to moderate improvements in the other condo developments in this group. According to public records, Apogee South Beach now only needs 6 more condo units to close in order to reach 100%.
- 1060 Brickell - January 23, 2008 - (175)
- Midtown 4 - February 15, 2008 - (76)
- Marina Blue - February 27, 2008 - (308)
- Wind - February 28, 2008 - (108)
- Asia Brickell Key - April 4, 2008 - (38)
Marina Blue continued to show good improvement in this update with around a 14 point increase in closings. Marina Blue now has nearly 60 percent of its condos closed. Wind had an increase of around 11 points, Asia around 10 points and Avenue at Brickell slightly over 7 points.
- 900 Biscayne Bay - May 5, 2008 - (79)
- 500 Brickell - May 14, 2008 - (49)
- Axis - May 19, 2008 - (50)
- Ivy - June 12, 2008 - (25)
Above is the newest batch of condo developments that recently began closings. I must say that I'm pretty impressed with 900 Biscayne Bay having 79 closed units within the past 2 months. It probably actually has 100 or more closed units by now since there can be a 2-3 week delay in the time that a condo closes and the time that the deed is recorded. It's still too early to judge the other three condo developments in this group. The next update should shed a little more light. I did have a chance to tour Axis today for the first time. I'll try to share some pictures with everyone towards the end of the week. By the way, I wasn't able to find Met 1 which is why it wasn't included in this update.
Disclaimer: The above closing rate information was derived from public County records. There can be a 2-3 week delay from the time that a closing occurs and the time that the closing is recorded.
Marina Blue’s closing rate is very impressive. 60% in just 2 months is excellent. I don’t know what they are doing right. I am surprised that a superior building like 900 is lagging so much with just 15% in one month since the closings started. Is it because it is a very expensive building to begin with?
AJ,
Marina Blue began closings on February 27th. That’s over 4 months ago. 900 Biscayne Bay started about 2 months ago but, as I mentioned, there can be a 2-3 week delay in closings being recorded. I think you’ll see 900 Biscayne Bay jump by the next update.
No information on Met1?
OMG,
See Lucas’s last sentence in the article mentioning Met1.
1800 looks stalled, only ~4 sales since last index report.
A lot of these buildings claimed sell outs, are any trying to break even by keeping 20% deposits and reselling at 80% of pre-con pricing?
Still looking for bulk deals. If any of you brokers hear of anything decent on the block shoot me an email.
Lucas – it would be interesting to find out how many of the closed units have NOT been listed on the MLS – ie how many people are actually “planning” on living in their condo.
Thoughts?
10 Museum appears dead. 13 months and still on 77%. Haven’t they already used one bulk sale and had a few units go to auction just to get to that 77%?
Very impressed by the Related Group’s closing rates…. Especially Apogee!
Regarding 50 Biscayne, the developer is probably turning those pre-furnished suites into short term rentals. If I’m not mistaken, those were added to inventory later in the game so they probably didn’t have buyers secured for all the suites.
Lucas, thanks for the great info!
Is related group giving discounts on
closing fees to customers? Are they giving
discounts on purchase price for cash buyers?
Regarding Plaza on Brickell?
In other news, Related officially cancelled their Vicory project across the street from Apogee. They plan to try a small hotel now.
i’m really surprised by midtown 4’s low numbers. i know there are a lot of cheerleaders on this board for that project, but really, i just don’t see why people like it so much. that said, the low closing rate is extremely ominous.
lucas – do you know what midtown 2’s stats are?
What about Continuum 2? How are closings there?
Perez,
BCom. Inc, the developer of 1800 Club does not discount. He is holding pretty strong even though they seem to have hit a wall at 68%. From what I heard, each and every water view unit and almost all partial water view units are all sold out and he is having trouble only with the city view 1 BR units. If this is an indication, I guess all buildings may have similar problems. For the almost same price/sf why would anyone pick up a city view unit when they can get a partial water view? My feeling is that the developers will completely sell out the East or North or South facing units and will eventually discount the West facing units when they can no longer afford to hold them. So these are the units I am expecting to be available for cheap sometime in the future (Maybe even $150/sf as some suggested). But the rest will not be discounted. As people who want to move to Miami from NY or Boston, the no.1 priority for them is a sliver of water view. If not for that, why even bother coming to Miami in the first place(apart from WX). The local working families may not attach that much importance to water views rather to the affordability factor.
AJ
Quantum: Do you know how many units are still beeing held by the developer ?
AJ
You are right about waterview.
My main objective as a foreign buyer was to get some water view, even if it was only partial. I think most of the foreign buyer think so.
We are willing to pay hefty premiums because Miami stands abroad for sun and water.
where exactly is this information derived? i understand miami dade county’s web page, but where after that?
AJ
Quantum: Addition to my question.
I ask because the agent of the developer recently disclosed to me a much lower number of unclosed units than those which are shown in Lucas’ statistics.
Hi Visionary,
The developers agents want to down play the numbers of the unsold (unclosed units). In fact the 1800 developers agent told me in so many words ” Please do not mention again and again that the developer is still holding 33% or about 150 units with him. It will scare potential buyers”.
Of course, the people who read this blog will always know such statistics. But they want this to be a previlaged information for ordinary folks.
I spoke to the developer one day and asked him if he has any east facing 2/2’s, especially lines 5 and 7. He said he still owns 2 of them. Out os a total of 80 units, only 2 are left with the developer which is not bad at all. He admitted that he indeed has a lot of city facing units.
In Quantum, I do not know how many units are still held by the developer. It might be a closely held secret by the Terra Group.
By the way, does anyone know who is the head honcho at the Terra Group?
Hello AJ
Nice feedback on all your comments
Do you remember if the developers agents for the 1800 club at the time of this posting were in house, or were still from Fortune Intl Development Sales?…
Thank
AJ,
Pedro Martin
I like that Omni/Pace Park area, but does anyone know what the plan is for all those vacant parcels between Bayshore and Biscayne, west of Q and 1800?
The cheapest 2Bds in these buildings are: Opera $468K, 1800 $350K; Q $398; and Cite $275, and Paramount will probably be substantially more. These are probably west facing units, and their value could be substantially affected by what gets built there.
Hi Perez,
I can only imagine that at some point, they will be developed. Hopefully and if everything is done right they will have restaurants and other neighborhood amenities that will add flair to the area and cement its uniqueness in the Miami landscape. As far as anyone buying westward views on these buildings, just be aware that they will probably be temporary at best as eventually they will be blocked. This is the reason that I truly feel that it is well worth your money to buy at least a sliver of a bay view as this will be your saving grace over the long haul. You have to have something that your competitor doesn’t and it is really hard to beat an ocean/bay view. You might be able to make the argument that you want to buy into a metropolis for location and not necessarily the view… Maybe, but this will take years…
Thanks Lucas. Does anyone know Pedro Martin? DLJ, have you ever met him or spoke to him? The developer of 1800 is Mr. Aslan Palachi and he is a thorough gentleman and always willing to listen and respond. I don’t think Jorge is ever approachable to anyone. Hence the question about Pedro. Also if anyone else is familiar with the Hyperion group’s boss.
Hi DLJ and Perez,
These lots are much smaller than the lots of Q or 18. Hence their air rights are limited and I do not expect them to rise more than 20-25 floors max. The best example would be that they would be similar to the Biscayne Plaza Building on Biscayne and 18 which are midrise. So Anyone in the Q and 18 with West facing unit on 25th floor or above will have their views safe and secure for life.
Hi AJ,
No, I don’t know him, but I have heard of him. Some of the committees that we put together are meeting with some of the terra higher ups. It appears that after all we are getting a business center after all at quantum and the higher ups at terra are appearing a lot more responsive since we organized. It really should be a win win situation and we certainly hope that it goes that route.
A J,
what ever happened to portico? I know that it got canned for now and I certainly hope that it never gets built as I feel that it would significantly impact any west facing units. what are your views on that?
Lucas,
i personally think that Plaza on Brickell will outperform biscayne boulevard buildings due to a superior location and great condo prices plus the brickell village is across the street and the building has a brickell avenue as a premium address.
I live in it and i see a huge traffic and people moving every day and buyers are coming to see with brokers all day long.
Portico will get built eventually. That parcel of land is a gold mine. I am not happy that those folks will look down on to the pool deck of 18 and Q and may even cast a shadow on the pool decks of both these 2 buildings, but there is no getting away from that. I am looking at in 5-10 years, something will definitely come up there.
Also Melo group owns the last waterfront property between Bayparc Plaza and the 1800. I see something coming up there too in 5-10 years.
I have counted approximately 5000 units between Venetia and Paramount Bay. If all these other buildings come up in the next 10 years along with the Herald Plaza project and other myriad projects slated for the NE 2nd Ave, OMNI/Pace Park area will be a city within a city. So I really want all these projects to come up. More the merrier.
Your closing numbers are nice- and surely involve a great deal of prep time. However, if the point of your Blog is the dire and still declining state of the Miami-Dade condo market, you may wish to consider a very relevant point which you and most others seem to overlook. Closing numbers do not necessarily represent true sales, i.e. units which shall not enter the enormous inventory of unsold Miami condos. An inordinately large percentage of closed units are not-occupied, investor units which tend to end up in the “for sale” market in rather short term. Add to that the number of units listed as “closed” which have simply been moved to a separate “account” of the same developer, and your “closing” figures become even more fictitious. Bottom line: slice or dice it any way you which, the Miami-Dade condo market has unsold condo inventories that are increasing weekly and shall not peak till mid-2009 …if you are lucky!
Lucas,
i’m looking forward to your pictures of Axis and any comment about the building that you have.
it seems like its in a good location (right next to mary brickel village, the new publix, easy metro-rail access) yet could also be had for a more reasonable price than some of the pricier condos that are going up in the brickel area.
keep up all the hard work, its appreciated
Bill GATES,
What’s your point??
Closing numbers indicate the private owners who have been approved by the bank or have
cash to complete the sale from the developer. What makes you think that all these are coming on the MLS? How many guys on this blog will have such ridiculous notions and pre conceived wrong ideas? Majority of the closed condos are either being put up for rent or being used for the pleasure of the owner. Only a few are coming on the MLS for sale. Stop assuming wrong things.
So what seems to be going on over at City 24? the place looks lie it was done sometime ago and i know closing started but looks like no activity is going on there either.
Saw the place wasn’t much to get excited about.
Any word?
Any news on Nordica Condos in the Roads…?
PLEASE….Can any of you RE people post an Internet link on which I can search by address and find the lienholder(s) (lender) on a Miami Beach condo?
THANKS!
I have heard that the IVY Unit has closed 71 Units till date. Haven’t heard alot about this building. Its prices seem lower, but location is also not as ideal as some of the others.
Well, well. It looks like the vaunted 900 Biscayne is racing some of the other 75% EMPTY buildings to become FP&L’s biggest early-AM hours customer!
I stepped out on my balcony at 5:00 AM this morning and practically every bayside light was on it that building! But all those lazy “closers” at TMP and Marina Blue were still snoozing!
SCAM!
[…] It’s been a little over two months since my last condo closing rate update. The last one was published on July 8, 2008. […]