Batting Practice, First Seat Installed in Florida Marlins’ New Stadium
February 16, 2011 by Lucas Lechuga
It appears that construction of the Florida Marlins' new stadium is still on schedule for a March 1, 2012 opening. For those who missed The Miami Herald article yesterday, Marlins players such as Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, John Buck and Gaby Sanchez took batting practice and the first seat was installed in the new ballpark. The article also mentions that premium seating is selling fast and full season-ticket sales for 2012 already exceeds all season-ticket plans sold for 2011. I, for one, look forward to the day when Miami will have its own stadium and arriving at a ball game will take just 7 minutes rather than making the long commute to Broward County.
Audit: Miami misused millions in public works funds
the report about the city of miami is what I expected from them,
Back in 2009 I had first hand experience with the city and I understand their culture and their 2009-2010 budget issues very well.
I got to know a lot of their senior and non senior employees in the various departments very well.
The purpose of each of them is to maintain their high level of wages, while producing only the bare min amount of work, as they wait for their retirement with their great pensions. This was all thanks to their strong unions.
On average they get paid 60% more then a person doing the same job in the private sector, but they have pensions and much better job security then the folks in the private sector.
75% of the their city budget goes to employee wages, benefit pensions, etc
They would do anything to keep their budget high enough to continue their high salaries, etc.
The city needs to file a BK and start over again, beat down the various city unions, so they can reduced the wages 30%-40% for the employees that are being grossly over paid.
The employees are very afraid of losing their jobs, they know that they will NEVER find another job anywhere that pays them those high wages and allows them to be so unproductive with no accountability.
Most of the old timers will never find another job again. Their skills are too weak. They have 1 year experience 20 times. Plus many seem to be over weight and in poor health.
I am sure that the city of miami is not the worst city out there. This is happening in many of the cities today.
However, knowing what I know about the city did not stop me from buying my condo there.
New report from the DDA:
http://www.miamidda.com/pdf/download/GoodkinFocus_DDA_ClosingsOccupancyStudy_Feb2011.pdf
The downtown condo occupancy rate is now up to 85% with 56% being renters and 44% being owners.
What if 56% of these buyers overextended themselves and need to sell within one to two years?
THESE TWO ITEMS BELOW SURPRISED ME.
I would think the average unit sales price and sf price would be lower. Also I did not expect there would be any increase in sales price or sf price from 2009 to 2010. I expected these numbers for 2010 to be the same as 2009.
If correct, it is good news and makes me glad I bought back in 2009 and did wait any later to buy.
1. Average unit sales price in 2010 was $347,729, representing a 15% increase from the average unit sales price of $302,254 in 2009.
2. Average condominium sales price per square foot in 2010 was up 10% to $300 per square foot from $273 per square foot in 2009.
I forgot to say.. If this information is correct then the price bottom for the Downtown Condo Market was in 2009, unless another crash hits
Owner, one should think the overall sales prices in 2010 would be higher than 2009. In 2009 we were still in the midst of a massive financial crisis-that was not so true in 2010, when it was just the recession. Many distressed sales were done under extremely severe financial conditions in 2009, far more so than 2010. Also remember, many of the buildings which came online later were very luxury (think Epic and Icon), compared to many of the earlier buildings. New sales come from developers, and they typically follow the pattern of slowly increasing sales price as inventory decreases.
Perhaps Lucas could correct me here, but i would guess the largest percentage of sales was from developers rather than individual owners on the secondary market. They have different price points and distress levels, and the larger volume determines the trends.
Ownwer, its a little hasty to say this info dictates the bottom. Most people identify the bottom based on Case-Schiller or similar metric. These are based on resale values-not first sales of units, since greater luxury skews the prices up at that time, but may not capture the trend year over year. Long term trends appear on the used market, not new market.
The curse of negative home equity
Hundreds of thousands of South Floridians are underwater on their mortgages, which could have profound impact on the region’s economic recovery, or lack of.
Maybe, but it’s still very positive news for the downtown housing market and makes me feel better for taking the risk and buying when I did.
I was very nervous that the prices would continue to drop a LOT after I bought. That I would be holding “the bag” like friends of mine who brought their condo in the Quantum On The Bay building in mid town.
They bought in the Fall of 2008, one year before I bought mine, they paid $280K ($290 per sf ) for 1bed 1bath with a windowless den.
Today that exact same unit in that building is selling in the $200K-$220K range. They put down $100K cash, so the they could break even if they had to sell it. So they are not trapped, but they would have a loss of $70K to 90K!!
I hate feeling trapped, thankfully I am not, I have plenty of equity if I had to sell. I do feel bad for all those poeple that have have no equity and are stuck. There will be many folks walking away.
Wasn’t there someone on this blog that kept saying that the downtown condo prices for new condos in new buildings like mine would be selling as a generally rule for $125 per sf? Which didn’t happen. I am remember that correctly? That was the stuff that was worrying me when I brought mine.
owner, no legitimate residents on this blog suggested $125 sf, that was the typical trolls that roll through every now and then. In my view, most of the bears figured the best deals would be had between $150 and $200 sf-too much value to let it drop much below $150, and that was not to be found in luxury buildings either. It is hard for 2B units to drop below $200k, since that becomes rather affordable to a wide range of folks. today, a legitimate question is, however, is $300k too high for those 2B? I say yes, others (including many buyers) say no.
ok makes sense
Just FYI – in my building the developer is selling the 2beds as quickly as the one beds. And all of the 2bed are selling for over $300k. These are being sold mostly to investors for cash,
Since these investors think that they will be able to re-sell them later for more, they would say no to your question.
Of course only time will tell.
owner, it is an interesting question. we will know the answer in about 5 years most likely. it all depends upon jobs and the economy. if enough higher paying jobs exist to cover the costs of those condos, it will work out. if those jobs do not exist, who will afford to live in $300k+ condos? Even without jobs, $200k is very doable. But as you push $300k, higher salaries are definitely needed. Can downtown support this action? I know gixxer likes to argue the trend is urban-and i feel similar. but a $150k townhome in suburbia versus a $300k condo downtown? the reality of budgets may someday hit miami as well!
remember, there were alot of investors who thought $400k was also doable about 5 years ago!
The majority of Condo purchases in 2009 – 2010 were cash purchases and Cash purchases continue to rule the Condo market, so that’s tremendously helping Buildings to become much more stable. With Financed purchases being a very small part of the current Condo market, the issue of a large number of new Owners becoming over-extended by Mortgages or needing large salaries to support their Mortgages is now almost non existent and Condo carrying costs of Maintenance Fees, interior Insurance, and Taxes are remaining fairly stable without drastic increases in most Buildings. Additionally, with the significant increase of purchases beginning in 2009, subsequent decrease in Inventory, and strict criteria for the few who do Finance their purchases, I think it’s pretty safe to say that we’re looking at a new majority of very stable Owners, unlike many of the Buyers who purchased several years ago and Financed most purchases with little to no money down. This is 2011, not 2007 – 2008 when sales were much lower, inventory was way higher, and prices were way higher.
d, very good points – mostly cash deals is another reason i waited to buy and why i bought in a brand new building where nearly all of the owners pay in cash. if they paid in cash, then they should be able to pay for the buildings maintenance fees and other carry costs
David and owner, that is certainly true of buildings which did not start selling until 2008. buildings which were open for business before 2007 will not have the large number of cash buyers except through foreclosure sales. this will probably create two classes of buildings in the future-ones with problems and ones without based on the timing of the opening. as owner says, infinity should do better in this case.
“Ownwer, its a little hasty to say this info dictates the bottom. Most people identify the bottom based on Case-Schiller or similar metric. These are based on resale values-not first sales of units, since greater luxury skews the prices up at that time, but may not capture the trend year over year. Long term trends appear on the used market, not new market.”
gables,
That’s a lot of spin right there. Owner specifically stated this shows the bottom for DOWNTOWN in 2009. Case Shiller looks at Dade, Broward and Palm Beach county as a whole. I’ve already agreed that when you look at the entire area as a whole the average is still down. But to try and say that every neighborhood within that are is still down is ridiculous. Especially when we have detailed information showing that prices were lowest in 2009 in downtown. I overreached calling 2009 as the bottom because I was only looking at these urban areas. But Downtown clearly bottomed in 2009.
And Case Shiller isn’t based on resales it’s based on pairs of sales. They track the difference is the sales prices of the same exact unit. This does mean that first time sales aren’t included because they have to wait until it’s sold again to compare the difference, but that first time sale is still used to compare to the second sale. And in a regular market where the majority of the sales are resales, that’s great. But in a market where 60% of the units are first time sales it means that you don’t include 60% of the sales. Would you really want a Realtor to give you comps of just the 40% resales and not include the 60% of new units that are selling????
I think Case Shiller is a great index, but like all indexes you need to really understand what their reporting. Do you really think the 60% of sales downtown that are new sales at higher prices are not relevant to the pricing of the rest of the condos in downtown. And were not talking about luxury sales of million dollar units were talking about typical $200k – $300k units.
In 2010 there was 3780 units sold downtown. 1498 of those units should be included in Case Shiller but 2282 are not. When looking at Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties, these 2282 units aren’t going to make much difference. But looking at just downtown where they represent 60% of the sales, its clear that this index isn’t giving much information as to the situation specifically downtown.
“owner, it is an interesting question. we will know the answer in about 5 years most likely. it all depends upon jobs and the economy. if enough higher paying jobs exist to cover the costs of those condos, it will work out. if those jobs do not exist, who will afford to live in $300k+ condos? Even without jobs, $200k is very doable. But as you push $300k, higher salaries are definitely needed. Can downtown support this action?”
gables,
Again there are a lot of false pretense here. Jobs obviously play a role in real estate but to extrapolate that to downtown is a far stretch. Were talking about 20,000 condos out of a total almost million housing units in just Dade County. You keep trying to make seem as though every neighborhood in Miami will act the same, which they obviously wont. Downtown has passed a tipping point and created a critical mass of housing and amenities that its not an upscale neighborhood. Regardless of whether or not Miami creates enough jobs for Miami as a whole, the people who do have income will continue to pour into areas like downtown. The next question is will we begin to build more moderate priced housing downtown to provide a more balanced community.
“I know gixxer likes to argue the trend is urban-and i feel similar. but a $150k townhome in suburbia versus a $300k condo downtown? the reality of budgets may someday hit miami as well!”
Most people in a $150k townhome are there because that’s all they could afford. They’ll most likely stay there. People moving into these urban areas are millennials who are grwoing to be the largest population segment. They stay single longer, get married later, have children later and therefore don’t have a desire or need to move to the suburbs like everyone else did post WWII. So it’s not a matter of them moving back from the suburbs but more of a matter that they feel no need to move out to the suburbs in the first place. They’ll most likely graduate and stay in urban areas and rent.
The people moving back from the suburbs are the baby boomers who have already establish wealth. So its more like grandma and grandpa selling their $500k single family home to move into a $300k urban townhome or condo so they can be closer to their kids and/or grand-kids.
gables,
I’d also like to point out something else about the Case Shiller index. They also break down the index into tiers. There is a low tier (under $148k), middle tier ($148k – $255k), higher tier ($255k and up) and aggregate which is what is typically reported.
I think its pretty obvious that downtown condo would fall into the higher tier ($255k and up).
When looking at the higher tier, it bottomed in May 2009 (sound familiar).
So homes $255k and above bottomed in 2009 according to Case Shiller even without taking into account all the first time sales that have been occurring.
Here is a link to the excel file from Standard and Poors:
http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3Dcs_tieredprices_012519.xls&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=application%2Fexcel&blobkey=id&blobheadername1=content-type&blobwhere=1243844106887&blobheadervalue3=UTF-8
1. I think we can agree per the report, that prices of new downtown condos was increased in 2010 over the 2009. So prices of sold downtown condos are not dropping any more and 2009 was the bottom for prices of at least NEW downtown condos.
2. The folks that paid cash for their condos most likely are NOT desperate, so unless they have a major financial problem, they will hold on to their condos until they go up and then sell them for more money (or worst case break even if they become desperate)
This means prices in brand new buildings that started to sell in late 2008, early 2009, should at least stay stable and/or go up in the future. (unless another worst financial crisis happens)
3. I think, in 10 or so years, If the american and global economies recover and miami does not have any bad hurricanes and the local downtown area gets more mature (better retail, more things to do etc,) I see downtown miami and it’s condos being a very international vacation spot (like miami beach is already). Many folks with money from another places will buy these condos as 2nd homes.
I have have traveled and worked in many places around the world, many folks I have met think very highly of miami, (poeple with money) and would love to have an 2nd condo home in miam. However A LOT of them are waiting to see the global economy does first.
Many years from now I think it will not matter so much on the local miami economy or how many high paying jobs miami has, cause many of these condos will be owned by poeple that made their money elsewhere. (like I did).
Sure there are 23,000 condos in the downtown miami area, but their are million and million of folks in the world with real money.
4. There is value in miami downtown condos and in the downtown area (specially brickell). Downtown miami is having a rebirth and it can only get better.
Where can you find an area that has 10s of 1000s of nice brand new skyscraper condos, with lot of young beautiful peolpe, with some of the best weather (in the winter) and some of the most beautiful views in the world with a warm ocean near by??
Where you can sit on your patio 50 stories above the bay (like I am going now) in the dead of winter (and it’s 78 degrees) and via your wireless laptop to connected to the rest of the world as you enjoy some of the best weather and best views in the world?
If I can see the value I know many others will too. It will just take time and a decent global economy.
Per the Case Shiller index, miami did bottom in 2009, sadly per the index in the higher tiers– Las Vegas and Phoenix is still dropping, that sucks for them. For me, without an beach and an ocean I see no reason to live there.
gixxer, dont get your panties in a wad! I simply told owner that using the DDA report showing rising prices in 2010 over 2009 indicates a bottom in 2009 can be misleading. Most of those units in the DDA report are new, and many luxury units continue to enter the market over time at higher values. But that does not say the SAME unit would have sold for less in 2009 than 2010. That is not what the report is indicating. For the most part these are not repeat sales. Perhaps more penthouses sold in 2010 than 2009? or higher floor units? You say I spin the Case-Schiller, well you are spinning the DDA even more.
Gixxer, thanks for the absurd quotes above.
“People moving into these urban areas are millennials who are grwoing [sic] to be the largest population segment.”
– Actually, the elderly are the fastest growing population segment.
“They stay single longer, get married later, have children later and therefore don’t have a desire or need to move to the suburbs like everyone else did post WWII…They’ll most likely graduate and stay in urban areas and rent.”
– Is that so? Wait until you get married and have kids (assuming you go that route) and then tell me what your plans are. It’s easy in theory to devote oneself to the “urban lifestyle” but in practice, it can really suck, especially in a still-developing urban area like Miami. And please don’t mention how many strollers you see on Brickell Ave. Once the kids are school-age the parents get the hell out of there. No yard, no space/storage, bad schools, valets, elevators, etc get real old real quickly when you’ve got a family in tow.
“So its more like grandma and grandpa selling their $500k single family home to move into a $300k urban townhome or condo so they can be closer to their kids and/or grand-kids.”
– Really? In Miami? This must have been a direct quote from one of your idealistic New Urbanism profs at UM. Show me how many grandmas and grandpas moving from Coral Springs to downtowm Miami. Get real, buddy.
Gables, good point about 2 classes of buildings, depending on when they came on the market, but I think that there’s good news, even for the ones that had sales in 2007 because a good number of original Owners are being replaced with new, healthy Buyers who are purchasing Units that went into default through Foreclosure or Short Sale.
Owneratinfinity, definitely a good move with the timing of your purchase and health of the bldg.
Drew,
Once again you show your ignorance. There were 76 million births between 1946 and 1964 (baby boomers). As of the 2000 census 4 million had died leaving 72 million. Because of immigration that number is now closer to 78 million.
There were 75 million births between 1977 and 1998. When you factor in deaths and immigration the number today is about 77 million.
The people in the middle are generation x where there were 51 million people born between 1965 and 1976.
And before the baby boomers was the silent generation (1925-1945) where there were less than 50 million births. Because of the depression and WWII people had very few children.
The reason people say that the elderly is the fastest growing population is because there were very few elderly people before the baby boomers. There is a difference between the rate of growth and a total number. Mountain Dew could have the fastest growing sales while Pepsi has the most total sales.
So the current elderly generation which is the less than 50 million silent generation (and much smaller now because of deaths) is now growing at the fastest rate as the 78 million baby boomers move into the elderly stage. But it wont be the largest population segment.
Right now Baby Boomers are the largest population segment at about 78 million but as they die at a faster rate the Millennials who are now at 77 million will be larger.
I could see why someone might be confused. But instead of actually looking up information to see if your right you say what I’m saying is absurd when its you who has no ideal what your talking about.
“is that so? Wait until you get married and have kids (assuming you go that route) and then tell me what your plans are. It’s easy in theory to devote oneself to the “urban lifestyle” but in practice, it can really suck, especially in a still-developing urban area like Miami. And please don’t mention how many strollers you see on Brickell Ave. Once the kids are school-age the parents get the hell out of there.
Again you miss the point. Millennials are between the ages of 13 and 34. Again many of them aren’t getting married and aren’t having kids until LATER in their lives. So if most of them don’t get married and have kids until mid 30’s then that means that most of them wont have to deal with the negative aspects of an “urban lifestyle” for years to come.
“No yard, no space/storage, bad schools, valets, elevators, etc get real old real quickly when you’ve got a family in tow.”
You should really do some research on the Millennial generation. They aren’t forming the same two parent 2.5 kids with a picket fence households.
D,
Thanks, I waited two years before I bought, while I rented a condo on Miami Beach. During that time, I studied every newer building in my price range in Miami Beach and Miami.
Since I never owned a condo before, I learned A LOT about them, their prices, their HOAs and the condo market. Yet I still sweated my purchase big time.
….but when all is said and done, it was just my dumb luck, that i was at the right place at the right time and I was willing to take the risk….
David, the real problem will be how many units will actually shortsale or be foreclosed upon. If you look at many of the buildings, there are rather extensive lists of short sales. More than likely, these will become foreclosures. How quickly and at what price remains to be seen. Unless the banks can continue to control the flood of foreclosed properties into the market, these units will keep prices down. the effect is unknown, but the issue most definitely exists.
gables,
“But that does not say the SAME unit would have sold for less in 2009 than 2010. That is not what the report is indicating. For the most part these are not repeat sales. Perhaps more penthouses sold in 2010 than 2009? or higher floor units?”
That’s completely ridiculous. You can look and see what units sold in 2009 and 2010 and there are a mix of units. You can find similar units, in similar buildings selling for lower in 2009 than 2010. Were talking about sales over an entire two year period.
Gixxer, the DDA report mostly indicates behavior in new condo buildings resulting from the sale of developer units.
Also, when discussing demographics and population behavior, you need to understand that your “Millenial” theory is far from proven correct. Many millenials are finding it very difficult to obtain what they consider secure, long term and high pay employment. Hence the apparent lack of marriage, kids and homeownership-avoidance of longer term financial commitments. Many other outcomes can result-just look at Japan and its demographics.
This place is always full of comedy. Where else can a post about a baseball stadium devolve into this type of bickering?
—
I hate to keep going in circles with Gixxer 1000 on a monthly basis, but his theories on housing demand and urbanism and the so-called millennials really seem like a stretch. As I’ve said what seems like 100 times before, if there was such a pent-up demand for downtown Miami housing, why has it taken 5 years to sell out a measly 25,000 (or whatever the number is; I keep forgetting) new condos in Miami-Dade? Real estate prices have been at rock bottom for years now, and the U.S. dollar has been crushed, and yet there are still thousands of new condos for sale.
—
Anyway, here’s the latest:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-prices-hit-postbust-lows-apf-3408768237.html
[i]WASHINGTON (AP) — Home prices in a majority of major U.S. cities tracked by a private trade group have fallen to their lowest levels since the housing bubble burst.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index fell in December from November in all but one of the 20 cities it tracks. The 20-city index declined 1 percent.
The only market to see a gain was Washington.
Eleven of the markets hit their lowest point since the housing bust, in 2006 and 2007: Atlanta, Charlotte, N.C., Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, [b]Miami[/b], New York, Phoenix, Portland, Ore., Seattle and Tampa, Fla.[/i]
Since I never owned a condo before, I learned A LOT about them, their prices, their HOAs and the condo market. Yet I still sweated my purchase big time.
….but when all is said and done, it was just my dumb luck, that i was at the right place at the right time and I was willing to take the risk….
————
Overtheinfinity – Man! you need to see a shrink. This site can not help you much anymore.
Your story is like a broken record and infinity is a old building now.
Poor and Unemployed, Still waiting to hear about your Miami condo buying experience. Please share your story. I would love to hear about.
Wells Fargo Bank won a $28.1M foreclosure judgment against Neo Epoch 1 for the land near Wind and Mint that remains empty. The development was supposed to be called Cima but was never built. http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2011/02/18/foreclosure-roundup-woolbright-faces.html
“Gixxer, the DDA report mostly indicates behavior in new condo buildings resulting from the sale of developer units.”
Gables,
We are talking about downtown. The over 22,500 units that they are talking about is over two thirds of all of the condos downtown. There were only 11,500 units built downtown between 1963 and 2002. The DDA report is tracking the additional 22,250 units built after 2002. These new buildings are the majority of the market. And as I pointed out before, 40% of the sales are resales.
“Also, when discussing demographics and population behavior, you need to understand that your “Millenial” theory is far from proven correct. Many millenials are finding it very difficult to obtain what they consider secure, long term and high pay employment. Hence the apparent lack of marriage, kids and homeownership-avoidance of longer term financial commitments. Many other outcomes can result-just look at Japan and its demographics.”
In this theory the reduced spending power is taken into account. That’s part of the reason while some won’t move out to the suburbs because they won’t have money to do so. Many will likely have to stay as renters and rental units are predominantly in urban areas.
I’d also like to point out that this is not my theory. Through both school and work I have access to consultants and demographers who do extensive research into where people are moving, how much money they make, etc. They essential do more detailed census style research and then sell the information to developers because it gives them a better understanding of things like possible absorption and capture rates. Since I don’t have tens of thousands of dollars to cross reference IRS documents with information gathered from people going door to door I tend to rely on the information from people who do.
I’ll also add that many people seem to think that things will always be the way they are. If you go back to pre WWII when everyone lived in overcrowded, dirty cities and told them that over the next 50 years people are going to make a mass exodus out the cities they would have thought you were crazy. And yet here we are. But developers followed the highways out and built homes in cheaper areas and the people followed. Now because of current situations the main thing developers are going to be able to make a profit developing over the next decade is urban multifamily housing. Look up cap rates for ubran multifamily housing, they’re the lowest of all property types. I’m sure we probably over build and have to deal with another bust 15 years from now. But in the meantime if this is where the majority of housing is built where else are people going to go?
I have seen a trend to move out the burbs into the cities for the same reasons, I am one those peolpe that left burbs for a city.
Today Oil prices passed $100 per barrel (highest price since 2008). The cost of gas is one of the major reasons why folks are moving to the cities to be closer to their jobs. Also, they want to cut down on their drive and spend more time with their families.
Another trend is for some of the over built far out burbs where prices have dropped the most to get section 8 low income folks moving into them. This has caused a increase in crime in these burbs.
Here is an article from yesterday with ULI CEO talking about development patterns over the next few decades:
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/urban-land-development-urban-planning-urban-land-institute-exurbs-north-carolina-state-university-college-of-design-raleigh-department-of-city-planning-3917.php
“Increased urbanization — More people now live in urban areas than rural ones.”
“Echo boomers entering adulthood — The children of baby boomers, Generation Y, is starting to enter the housing market and workforce. “They are the most technologically connected generation in history – they are far more interested in social networking than cars.”
Echo boomers and Generation Y are other names for Millennials.
“Housing shortage — There likely will be a housing shortage over the next few years. Housing starts hit a 30-year low in 2009 (554,000 starts total). Demand for housing in sought-after, accessible neighborhoods – such as first-tier suburbs – will outstrip supply.”
“Growth in suburbs – Up to 80 percent of the development that occurs through 2050 will be in the suburbs, rather than downtown cores.”
Note that this is a national trend. Developers look at the landscape as downtown cores, suburbs and exurbs. So in Miami terms Downtown would be the area covered by the DDA, suburbs would be places like Coral Gables, South Miami, Doral, etc. and places like Cutler Bay and Homestead would be exurbs. The focus will be to go to the inner suburbs (Doral, South Miami,etc) because they have adequate infrastructure and they are close to employment centers. In these inner suburbs they’ll try to build town centers and make these places more urban.
“Phillips cited findings from ULI’s publication Housing in America, which shows a desire by both baby boomers and Generation Y to live in more pedestrian-friendly, transit-oriented, mixed-use environments that de-emphasize auto dependency. This preference will hold true for suburban development, he predicted.
“Suburban development in the 21st century cannot mean sprawling development; that simply is not a sustainable growth model,” Phillips said. “In the suburbs, less land will have to be used to accommodate more people.
“We’ve learned that there is a market for compact, mixed-use design, smaller housing space, and development that minimizes the need to drive. The demand for this has stretched beyond downtown cores and into the suburbs, and it is the first-tier suburbs that are best positioned to accommodate this type of development.”
A lot of this sums up the thinking of most current developers. As a result they are going to start developing based on these assumptions. For multiple reasons there is huge demand for urban multifamily housing. The main constraint is access to financing, but this is slowly changing. So as soon as these developers get access to the capital they need they are going to start building in these urban areas and because the current demand is so high the first projects will likely be successful. Even IF the entire development community is wrong about where the market is moving, by the time they figure out they’re wrong the buildings will be there. This isn’t a very agile business, it’s pretty much boom and bust every 15 years.
Interesting to see the statistics on downtown Miami.
I’m curious as to how people see that market for second home buyers. I live in the Northeast and considered downtown / brickell for a 2nd home. However, after looking around, I thought it was still expensive: I ended up getting a 2 bed 2 bath in South Beach for mid 300s, whereas 2 bed 2 bath in downtown were still in the high 200s or low 300s. I thought for that kind of price differential, the beach had more value.
Granted if I lived in Miami full time, I might want to live downtown, given the tourists and “noise” on the beach, but as a vacationer without a car, SoBe offers the ability to walk to everywhere that I enjoy. And the buildings on the bay side of SoBe are quiet enough for me.
There seem to be fewer SoBe opportunities in the mid 300s out there but if they’re still available, I’d think that downtown 2/2s would have to be closer to mid 200s to be comparable.
sobesecondhome — I agree 100%, and I’ve been saying the same thing here for several years. I still believe most of the high-end Miami Beach buildings are overpriced, which probably accounts for there being so little action in the high-end market there. But I’m really astonished that the spread between prices and carrying costs has narrowed so much between downtown and the beach, especially in the middle price segments.
one big difference between downtown and miami beach is the age of the condos. the downtown condos are rather new. the midpriced miami beach condos are not as new. the luxury units are new, but in completely different price ranges from downtown. thus the premium on downtown units at this point in time narrows the spread. once the downtown buildings lose this new feeling-give it a few more years-the spread will increase. question is, will the spread increase by higher beach prices, lower downtown prices, or a mix? but you can be sure the spread will increase-the beach will always be more desirable with a supply constraint. in brickell, there is no supply constraint on land. just build one block in.
That’s right, however Brickell will ran out of land too (someday if and when another Brickell building doom hits).
You only have a few blocks to build west until you hit the the I-95 Highway.
I would think, building any new condo towers in Brickell west of I-95 would not be desirable since they would be too far west to any have type of water view of the bay.
Just FYI:
This is something I noticed from living on a high floor..
At a clear day, the sky looks very very clear when I look east to the bay/ocean from my unit.
However when I go to the roof top deck which is one floor above me on the 52rd floor) and look west the sky always looks hazy. I guess caused by pollution.