Foreign Buyers Finding Deals in the Miami Condo Market
February 21, 2008 by Lucas Lechuga
I, for one, have met with a large influx of foreign buyers within the past six months from countries such as Ukraine, China, Russia, Canada, England, Italy, Germany, various countries in South America and territories of the United States, such as Puerto Rico. Many of these buyers came prepared to pay for South Florida condos with cash. In fact, two of the three pending sales that I have scheduled to close in March are cash deals, with no financing contingencies. Great deals in beachfront condo buildings are exactly what these foreign buyers have in mind.
The Reuters article also revealed the following which I found very interesting:
In a study by the National Association of Realtors last year, Florida was the top destination for foreign buyers, accounting for 26 percent of all transactions, ahead of California at 16, Texas at 10 and Arizona at 6 percent.
More than 7 percent of all Florida homes were sold to foreigners, the study found, and 65 percent of Realtors said they had brokered at least one foreign deal.
I would think that Miami homes sold accounted for much higher than 7 percent since Miami should have a much larger percentage of foreign buyers than the rest of Florida.
I'd also like to note that new buyers for Miami condos aren't only coming from countries abroad. I've also found buyers from New Jersey, New York, California, Illinois and Texas. I will admit that local buyers remain a very small percentage of my overall business. In a nutshell, if I had never started this blog I'd probably be out of business. This blog allows me the opportunity to reach people all across the world (including the two people in Ethiopia and Afghanistan who found my site within the past week, according to Google Analytics). The Miami condo market is not a local market...it is a global market. It may not seem cheap to local buyers, but to foreign buyers Miami and Miami Beach condos are bargains to them.
Lucas, you forgot me from Belgium (but living and working in Djibouti, Africa). Your blog is a great source of real info ! I have cash to invest, and would love to have a vacation residence in Miami (above all the other cities in the US) BUT the cost of ownership is prohibitive vs the cost of rent as long as you have this taxation system in Florida ! It does not make much sense for a foreigner, even with a weak USD, to buy in Florida right now… Let’s see again when this market really rocks bottom !
Terry – absolutely right. I’ll say it again. Change the tax system to something more or less equitable and your 6 years inventory will disappear.
Sorry if it makes Florida residents pay more for the services they consume 365 days a year (as they should do). But then again residents paying more – that would be part of the shift towards tax equality anyway…
Lucas, I’m in the UK and follow your blog. I know of at least 10 other bankers in the UK, originating from France, Morocco, Belgium, Holland, & Germany, who follow your blog. We find it very informative and we’re all buyers but find the market very unusual. As Terry mentions the whole property tax thing makes ownership relatively expensive. I do believe that if FL moved to an income tax, the whole property market would recover within six months. But this probably won’t happen soon and as mentioned in the article, the recent currency appreciation has helped our foreign cause. Lucas – You’ll hear from me and the boys soon, now that the bonuses have been paid.
Julian – I agree 100%
All I know is that hallandale beach if FULL of Russians, Ukrainins, etc. Everywhere I go I hear people speaking in Russian, it’s amazing.
Well tell that to the euro buyers last fall who bought when the market was cheap and so was the dollar.
What happened? The market still fell and the dollar still dropped, so losses are multiplied on the way down. So much for a deal.
Mikel,
It’s still a deal if you bought it for under the value, now maybe it wasen’t the best deal but it was still a deal. The dollar isn’t going to keep trading for 1.50 Euro, That number is just too off cue, a reasonable trade would be 1 us to 1.20 Euro, I think that’s where we’ll be by the end of 09′. Just gotta get out of 08′ alive. so if your a european that bought a good property, for a low price, while exchange rates were definetly on your side, I think it’s a good deal.
The tax argument against foreign ownership of a condo in Miami seems a bit strange to me. If you can buy a a condo that was $750,000 a year ago for half that amount, $375,000 today, your taxes would be about $8,000 versus $16,000 a year ago. That amount does not seem excessive to me, but you can mitigate that amount by renting the condo for a short period each year if you wish. Assuming you rent the condo for $1,000 a week to friends and family for 8 weeks a year, you would recoup the entire tax cost. To me the most important thing to focus on in terms of on-going costs would be the maitenance fees. Assuming you do your homework well before buying, these should be quite reasonable.
Dave
1. Most half decent condos will not allow the kind of renting you describe, for the periods you mention. You might be OK – but am sure most people wouldn’t actually feel comfortable taking cash from family and friends like this anyway
2. Assessed values lag at least a year, sometimes 2 , so you could well be paying $16k a year tax for a couple more years at least.
3. You’re assuming friends and family would want to rent. So you must be talking about beachfront. Beachfront hasn’t halved in a year, or even 3 years (yet).
4. Not sure I’d agree on the HOA either. Personally, I’d happily pay $700 a month for HOA for a super service building, even as a part time user. That’s a lifestyle choice, and one most people will take. What I won’t do is pay $16-$25k of taxes which is randomly affected by movesin property prices, millage rates and tax reforms – and $8k of HOA on top.
5. Why bother? 2nd homes are a discretionary purchase, a lifestyle enhancer if you will, not a wealth preserver. So why bang yourself up with $20-$35k total costs per year when even if you spent an entire month in Miami Beach at Peak Season at the Ritz-Carlton you’d have $10-15k change left over to invest in something that will make you money.
6. Finally, if you are after foreign purchasers, most foreign climes have much lower property tax regimes. UK, France, Brazil certainly have MUCH MUCH lower costs of ownership than Florida. You will struggle to persuade someone who lives in a multi million dollar home in London or Paris and pays $3-6k a year in “property taxes” for full time occupation, to pay 3-5x that amount for a $750k apartment you’ll use 4x a year.
Kevin Tomlinson of the South Beach Real Estate Blog has one upped me. I have to give him props for his latest post which reveals two videos about the Miami condo market which aired this morning on “The Today Show”. I must say that the videography work is fantastic. Fabulous work by “The Today Show”, and Kevin for bringing this to my attention. I can’t believe Barbara Corcoran was in Miami Beach this morning. I’m a big fan! For those of you who aren’t aware of Barbara Corcoran, she is the New York City queen of real estate. Her words are golden. The link to Kevin’s post can be found below. I’ll likely write a post about this as well by midnight.
http://www.southbeachrealestateblog.com/2008/02/22/all-you-ever-wanted-to-know-about-the-miami-miami-beach-real-estate-market-a-video-roundup/
I agree with Lucas Completely the dollar is very weak and I get traffic to my foreclosure site from the UK, Canada, a lot from NYC, France and Russia. In the stagflation that we are facing right now it makes sense to keep the dollar exchange low to increase foreign direct investment, lower imports and increase net exports thus mainting GDP growth. I think anyone with a different currency understands that some bank owned foreclosures are 50% of what they were selling for 2 years ago and their currency is up another 25% from 2 years ago so it makes sense. Plus when you buy that low your condo gets reassed and you pay almost lower property taxes and it does not take 2 yeatrs, however you do have to make a call and get it reappraised (i used to work for the city and ran analysis on property taxes in Dade County and City Streetscape plans) About half of the Pending Sales I have this year are from internationals that want to have a home in Miami, Europeans especially are lloking for South of Fifth which hasnt seen the drop Brickell has seen. I also feel that only the professional realtors are surviving and the times have changed to clients actually looking at cost of ownership versus renting and actually looking at Carrying costs and Cash flows. I like the market that we are in if anything I see it as opportunity because we will never see this relaxed financing, no doc adjustable loans I think everyone has realized Collaterized Debt Obligations and Mortgage backed securities werent that great and the people holding cash or a large down payment (high LTV) are going to be able to enjoy great deals. Thats my opinion
Hey, hey!
Wow, Thanks!
I love Barbara Corcoran. That woman knows her stuff!
I’m also a big fan of Pam Liebman, COO of Corcoran.
Thanks Kevin for posting that, that video was amazing, i loved how they showed the jade, vibrant during the day then they film it at night and theres no lights on
Julian
add argentina to your list. bought a place in palermo soho (amazing that my first home purchase was in a foreign country) a few years back. bought it with cash and my carrying costs are minimal. rent it out to US students studying abroad and spend about a month there when i get the chance.
Hi Lucas – no big deal, but when you post your story later tonight please correct Kevin’s error…both of those clips were from NBC/CNBC’s “The Today Show”, not Good Morning America which is CBS.
I keep reading somewhere that comparing Miami to Miami Beach is like comparing the Bronx to the Upper East Side.
Just that the Upper East Side doesn’t have six and a half years of inventory.
Also, I know it’s a blog, and we all make typos, but just a suggestion for some realtors who post here – if you are trying to come across as a serious economist/market strategist then make some effort with the grammar and spelling.
I dont agree that comparing Miami Beach to Miami is like upper east side to the bronx. come on guys, thats a little harsh. when we say Miami I am assuming we all mean downtown miami and not kendall or sunset. downtown miami to south beach is NOTHING like the bronx to upper east side, sorry.
keeping the dollar weak so you can sell real estate is south florida is not a good strategy for the long term health of this country. frankly, its moronic.
as for foreigners buying up real estate down here…yeah, maybe there is increased traffic. but at the end of the day, it’s not enough to clear the overhead that’s out there in any meaningful way. the sales figures back that up. and as the global economy catches a cold from the us’s troubles, those foreign buyers, including the wealthy, aren’t going to be caring so much about about condos in miami . my friends in london who work in the CDO market are polishing their resumes up right now.
Jcrimes – spot on.
My hunch is that 2008 (maybe the end) sees a pricing bottom but volumes don’t recover for many many years (and never to previous levels, and I mean never)
Look at existing home sales as a % of housing stock and you’ll see why.
Isabel, that was actually my error. I will correct it right now. Thank you!
Lucas & Kevin – great info (I just had to blog about – thanks to you guys – http://www.condo.com/Community/UserBlogPage.aspx?ID=1583 )
Could one of the Miami Beach experts please explain why (fundamentally and empirically, not waxing lyrically) why we should treat Miami Beach any differently? No one doubts they are different beasts lifestyle/buyer wise but the numbers don’t distinguish.
Data published here by Lucas suggests the inventory problem is just as bad in Miami Beach, sales volumes have slowed (or at least are now back in normal levels as a % of housing stock). I grant you there would appear to be less new stock coming to market than Downtown, but what are the numbers empirically?
I drive past MEI, Paradiso, F III, Eden Roc, Canyon Ranch, Sunny Isles etc etc. There’s an inventory problem to come here over significant proportions (units and quantum of pricing),
Again, I think it’s fair to say that the profile of the Miami Beach buyer/investor/flipper was a little different, thus I suspect there will be more closings with the units right back on the market. Some of the above mentioned only had 10% down – you’d be a fool to close with so little to lose.
Anyone studied the Boston condo boom of the 1990s?
Anyone know what the run rate of sales in Miami Beach was each year in 1997-2002? And what it is now? (i.e. last 3 months annualized, not calendar 2007 data)
Julian – you just gave me a good idea for this weekends blog post
And yes – i started my blog because no.3 blog spot is up for grabbing :+)
The major media is shifting their spin on the Miami condo market. It’s happening. You may not want to believe it but it is happening. Just wait until the Wall Street Journal publishes their story next week.
When I first moved to Miami I planned to be here for about 5 years. My plans have changed. I’m going to live in Miami until I’m on my deathbed. You couldn’t remove me from this city even if you had Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jay Cutler trying to remove me. I’m here to stay. Where else in the United States would I want to be? Maybe NYC or Chicago for half of the year? What about the other half of the year?
As Tony Montana said “This is paradise”. It truly is. All Miami needs is more jobs. Once more corporations move here (as they have been in recent months), Miami will truly be the place to be.
Lucas whats the WSJ article on? I look forward to reading it
Lucas
i’ll disagree with you. you will not see any major corporation move here any time soon. three, connected reasons
1) cost of housing – where are your secretaries going to live? how about your young professionals? everything is too expensive?
2) the quaility of the help at all levels – unlike other major cities, the intellectual capital in miami is severely lacking. no knock on the U, or for that matter UF, but there are no top universities in this state. although this isn’t dispositive, most major cities have some strong academic outposts. as for lower levels of employment, i.e., back office, secretaries, sorry, but my own personal experience tells me there is a significant dropoff when compared to other cities.
3) wage disparity – e.g., major law firms here are on a reduced scale as compared to ny/chicago. however, the cost of living here exceeds chicago by a significant degree. yeah, winter up north sucks, but that extra 60/70k a year buys you some very nice vacations.
throw in the fact that you run the risk of having major business disrpution from hurricanes, expensive commercial real estate (and the corresponding insurance) and miami is quite unattractive for moving a company here.
whoever is moving here (query – what companies are you referring to in the first place?) is not a good anecdotal evidence of what actually is happening.
About the lenders “blacklisting” most of the
new condo developments in Miami; wasn’t
the PMI “required” to be paid by purchasers who didn’t put at least 20% down going to protect the lenders? If not, why was it always purported to be the reason that it is required? The lenders appear to be fully protected (at least that’s why PMI is required). I guess the lenders do not want to own Miami real estate at “any” price! Tell me what I’m missing here!
David – probably because the Bond Insurers are in trouble for insuring rubbish, so no doubt insurers in general do not want to commit capital to PMI, or the banks don’t believe there’s enough capital/ability in the insurance/reinsurance industry to genuinely offset their risk today.
I think all you wide eyed optimists should take a good look at this article, http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3701.html. Suggestion, you will need a stiff drink after you read it. Nobody is bashing Miami or the lifestyle in the city. The question is whether most of these condos are way overpriced and where the market can and will go from here. My view is only a fool would buy, and if you find some foreign fools, well, they have less to lose because their currency is strong. But foreigners are classic “dumb money” and if those are your buyers, ouch. And for you dummies supporting a weak dollar, that ultimately means inflation in the US and that means high interest rates. Just wait until mortgage rates head towards 7-8 percent……then watch what happens to the miami condo scene. I am quite sure the worst is yet to come.
Try this link without the period:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3701.html
Foreign buyers are nothing new. Yes, the weak dollar helps brings them in, but they don’t compose a big enough percentage of the market to make a meaningful difference – especially in this market.
I think Jeremy is right – aside from the weak dollar, the fact is that most of these buyers simply aren’t as in-tune with the market as the locals are. That includes New Yorkers and other out-of-towners – who have yet to see the pain that the worst bubble markets have experienced and really don’t have a grasp on reality yet.
Some of the dumbest purchases I’ve seen have been from out-of-town investors. And by “dumb”, I mean they they paid way more than they should have, and have subsequently lost a bunch of equity (if they were cash buyers) or are underwater at this point.
In every financial bust, there are always “sucker’s rallies” on the way down. In this case, it appears the suckers are the non-local buyers who think they are getting a good deal simply because they are getting a discount off an already over-inflated boom-era price.
The weak dollar is certainly a rational reason for foreigners to invest in the US dollar. But buying something that is overvalued by 30% or more just because your currency is strong against the dollar isn’t a wise decision – for obvious reasons.
The “foreign buyers will bail us out” idea has been a rallying cry amongst local real estate cheerleaders for a long, long time. It’s a tired, old argument.
I don’t doubt there is more interest from foreign buyers right now due to the weak dollar. However, there will never be enough of them to keep prices from reverting to levels that make sense, fundamentally.
DAVID the lenders are not fully protected because the insurers that sold the PMI’s cannot cover the losses that they are facing
I’ve read some dumb ass apocalyptic articles in my days but that takes the cake. first of all I wouldn’t listen to someone called the market oracle, from england on top of it. no matter what you say Miami real estate will never crumble like other markets will, because everyone wants to live in Miami. People from other countries and people from other parts of THIS country want to move to Miami. If the U.S. has a flu the world gets pneumonia, The U.S. economy is much more resilient than people think, and the Miami condo market will always be sought after.
If real estate collapse as severe as many predict ,the entire financial institution of U.S. and the rest of world will collapse as well. Then the cash will lose its value at all. The U.S. economy will survice…Wait for a couple of years, and we all we see how Europe ‘s economy and its currency will enter into a long-term recession worse than we have right now in U.S.
Then, we in the U.S. we will be having parties…
Raffi
if everyone wants to live in miami why is there a 6+ year supply of housing? ‘splain dat papi.
well papi (as you say) there was obviously too much built, I’m not questioning that but eventually it will be absorbed. well before an entire doomdsay collapse…….sound good papi?
I re-posted that link since it had a period in the original post. I have read the article now and wasn’t overly impressed. Yes, real estate prices will continue to go down some more for some time. Probably reverting to the trend line (see Case-Shiller) in the Miami area and possibly could dip below that if the overall U.S. economy goes into a bad recession. If you sold at the peak you are well off. I don’t think there will be an Armageddon since from Econ 101 people change their behavior as we go up and down these curves…..just like everyone jumped in the market that drove it up, people will jump in once prices reach the bottom – maybe 2003 prices, maybe 2001 prices, I don’t know but I will know if I see flat pricing for 3+ months in a row with under 10 months supply of homes on the market. We have a loooong way to go which really sucks for me since I’d like to buy on the beach NOW, but can’t because the prices haven’t adjusted to where they ought to be. I’m willing, as a cash buyer to take a 10% downside risk (because of the benefits of owning, such as customizing etc., and because I got the money), but not a 15%, 20%, 40%, or whatever. So, looks like I’ll join the ranks of the renters…..
Jeremy
There is no doubt that the worst is yet to come. But Miami is not going to end.
Let’s put this into perspective okay. Miami has suffered MUCH worse set-backs than our condo-glut (it’s almost sounds ridiculous as I write this), for example, Hurricane Andrew.
I’ve been in this business since before the first high rise was built on SoBe, Portofino Tower.
You can look at it two ways:
1. Developers over-built for the actual demand of the END USER, and we will have to “suffer the consequences until the inventory is absorbed”.
2. This is the worst thing that could happen to any city anywhere, and Miami will collapse.
It makes me laugh seeing it on paper.
I’m going to take my ambien now and go to bed.
For the record:
It’s gonna get nasty, bloody and worse than anyone EVER imagined.
But you know what? We will get through it.
Here’s another way to look at it: Before the bubble burst in 2004 & 2005 what was the #1 concern about housing here in Miami?
Answer: Affordable housing. It looks like these nice new digs all over the city will come down enough to actually be “affordable” for a “regular” person.
So something good will come out of all this, after all.
Lucas,
eventhough i’m negative on the real estate mkt in miami, i do agree w/you that miami COULD be a fantastic place to live.
initally they need to get a mayor like Rudy Giuliani (like him or not, he cleaned UP nyc over a decade…) or like previous Mayor Williams in DC (cleaned up DC and brought people back to living downtown from the suburbs). remove crackheads from lincoln rd…clean up derelicts…clean up crime and improve daily qualities of life. IF a new mayor can accomplish this AND provide large incentives to corporations to bring a chunk of their business to be run out of miami – THEN we have a real all yr round city. this is a 10 yr plan…
Alejandro, I can’t say. I don’t want to ruin their story. It’s going to be great for the Miami condo market though.
i KNOW, I KNOW.
Me too!
My personal input.
I was in Miami last week ready to make an all cash deal on a couple of units in a Sunny Isles condo. I offered a 15% discount from asking and the best I could yet was a 3%. One realtor was so “offended” that she did not even reply to the offer.
With this kind of attitude no wonder Miami is in such a mess
Raffi
not really. any doomsday scenario will play out well before the absorption of all these units. suffice to say, we’re entering very interesting global economic times. let’s see what happens in the next two years with corporate defaults, the CDS market and growth of economies outside of the US. i wouldn’t be surprised if all three sectors will suffer some major negative event. that in turn will have significant consequences on all tangible asset sales, including real estate. at a minimum, the deal flow in the securitization market (commercial and residential), which provided the lifeline for the real estate boom, is down big and won’t be back for years. simply, investor confidence in these sectors has been shattered.
moreover, let’s understand exactly how much things were overbuilt – in the decade preceding the boom, something like 10,000 condos were built; during the boom alone (excluding all the cancelled projects) there’s a supposed buildout of 45,000 condos (i’m not standing by these figures as scripture – if someone cares to firm them up, much obliged). factor in the mortgage fraud and foreclosure wave, which take years to run through the system (a foreclosure used to take 90 days to complete once filed – that time has bumped up to about 110 days now that the courts are swamped), and i don’t think you’ll see prices stabilizing for at least three years from “today.” while all this is going on, people will be extremely hesitant to buy (and if there is a global wealth meltdown, they won’t) regardless of how desireable miami is as a place to live.
as for cyrus’s comment about bringing in a giuliani…not sure that could save this place from itself. the level of corruption in local politics in miami is unconscionable. unlike other cities, for example, ny and chicago, where politicians are also corrupt, at least the city “works.” can’t say the same for miami. as for attracting major corporations to locate here – that will never happen: (1) there’s too many other cities that are competing and that are superior to miami in the areas that attract companies (e.g., charlotte, atlanta, austin) and (2) to the extent they would consider locating here, there’s no guarantee it will be in miami (you have something like 10 fortune 1000 companies in ALL OF southeast florida with about 4 being located in miami).
that said, it’s a beautiful morning! there always is a silver lining.
Just to be clear, I was throwing out that article as food for thought. I don’t agree with everything in it either. However, I do believe the risks to the downside in the Miami condo market FAR outweigh any potential upside, and that scenario will continue for the forseeable future. I am looking at it as a potential buyer, and I have plenty of cash, but there is simply no reason to buy. Just like the article said, I would rather run the (slight) risk of the market turning up to avoid the (major) risk of the market continuing to grind downwards. There just is no compelling reason to buy and none of us can predict the future of this because none of us have experienced it before. There never has been a national real estate depression like this before where prices are going down almost everywhere. My point is that there is no reason to be optimistic because there is no reason to buy, and every reason not to. Until that dynamic changes, I think even that doomsday scenario can’t be ruled out.
Lucas,
When is that article dropping.
Samir,
Not really sure. The WSJ reporter contacted me a few days ago to verify the names of the buildings that he photographed that will be included with the article. One of those buildings was Quantum on the Bay. He said the article would be published next week but he wasn’t 100% sure. My guess is Monday or Tuesday.
A lot of people are bringing up income tax as something that would induce foreign buyers. Don’t forget that Miami would lose significant demand from second home buyers and retirees who are attracted to Florida to avoid paying state income tax…
The homestead exemption is what is driving up property taxes for new residents, non-residents and 2nd home owners. To give you an example of how bad things are, lets compare my prop taxes to my neighbors. I bought a townhouse in coconut grove in 2004 while my neighbor bought in 1997. I am paying $11K/year in taxes, while my neighbor is paying $4K/year. My neighbor has a homestead exepmtion and his prop taxes cannot rise more than 3% a year. My taxes are high as I had recently moved to FL from CA and had to pay taxes on the current market value.
There is a HUGE number of people who are not paying their fair taxes. Only way to make up for that is to jack up the rates for others.
IMHO, only way to fix the prop tax issue is to repeal the homestead exemption and come up with a system that is fair.
I think there is a lawsuit against the Homestead Exemption filed by some canadian home owners. I dont know the status of that suit, but I hope that suit overturns the homestead exemption.