Beautiful 2 Bedroom Condo at Ocean Four in Sunny Isles Beach – Video
April 21, 2010 by Lucas Lechuga
Contact us at info@miamicondoinvestments.com or 305-428-3860 if you have any questions or if you'd like to schedule a showing.
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Lucas must have his helper trained–lots of new product. A floor plan attached separately to the article would be helpful to review after seeing a video.
New sales info from March:
Single family Homes:
Sales 649 (up 46%)
Median $197,500 (up 3.3%)
Condos:
Sales 835 (up 53%)
Median $138,800 (up 10%)
All it took was one month to show the ridiculous claims that some of the bearish people make here. In February the median condo priced dropped 11%. Instead of having common sense and looking at the fact that the median price fluctuates every month computer consultant used this as justification for the ridiculous claim Renter Tom kept referring to that home values would be 30% lower by September. Here is the quote:
“With 11% price drop Jan to Feb, 30% drop prediction by Sep is not that far off…..”
But now that prices moved back higher by 10% the same people will of course simply dismiss it. I curious to see their reasoning on how they do it.
For condo prices to be 30% lower by September they would need to fall by 25% in the next five months.
For single family homes to be 30% lower by September they would need to fall by 28% in the next five months.
I think its pretty obvious that current prices aren’t going to drop by 25%. When you look at case/shiller you can see that prices are pretty much the same since April 09. The median changes each month as the composition of sales changes each month. 2nd quarter ’09 = bottom.
Gixxer,
When you post hard data like that, you need to provide a link. All reports I see -including the Florida Realtors Press Release- say prices are DOWN 4% (Miami existing SFH Median) and DOWN 8% (Miami existing condos) for March based on year over year comparison. (To the laypeople out there, Year over Year means they are comparing March 2010 vs. March 2009 as opposed to a sequential comparison of March 2010 vs. April 2010. Comparing housing numbers for the same month year over year helps avoid sequential seasonal effects)
I’m not sure how you got your positive percentages without seeing a link to your data source. Maybe it’s a typo on your part, maybe it’s a typo on your data source?
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/floridas-existing-home-condo-sales-rise-in-march-2010-91817554.html
http://southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2010/04/19/daily53.html
Very good price for this unit.. Ocean 4 is a great building and is a solid investment.
Miami Real Estate Guru Gixxer affirmatively states that bottom hit in 2Q ’09. Too bad for all you suckers waiting on the sidelines. You missed the bus.
Gixxer, pray tell, how do feel about the fact that as of today, 28% of all Miami-area mortgagors are at least 30 days delinquent (double the nat’l avg of 12.2%) coupled with an unemployment rate above 12%. Do you or do you not believe these factors will contribute to a further slide in housing values? If not, please explain. As always, thank you for sharing your wisdom with all of us.
JL,
I thought my point was pretty clear. I was responding to the ridiculous claim that was made last month using the month to month drop from Jan to Feb. I posted the exact quote:
“With 11% price drop Jan to Feb, 30% drop prediction by Sep is not that far off…..”
Obviously comparing a monthly change isn’t that productive because of the seasonality of real estate as you mentioned and the fact that monthly sales fluctuate. So using the fact that the median price dropped 11% from Jan (2010) to Feb (2010) was silly. Here is part of my original response:
“As you can see the median sales prices varies every single month. Arguing the actual market dropped 11% using month over month sales is a little premature.”
So I simply refuted that claim using the same logic used to make it. If you thought the 11% drop from Jan to Feb meant we were closer to the the 30% drop by Sep then a 10% increase from Feb to Mar simply wipes that out as you would now need a 25% drop in 5 months to get there.
I agree that year over year numbers are better than month to month for the stated reasons. But the problem with using year over year numbers is that you have to wait a year to see where you’re at. So I have said that I think the bottom was around 2nd quarter ’09. We won’t be able to tell if I’m right or wrong until 2nd quarter of 2010. I suspect that sometime in the 2nd quarter of this year you will start to see year over year numbers either flat or slightly higher.
Drew,
What does the fact that 28% of mortgages being delinquent or a 12% unemployment rate have to do with downtown condos???
700 condos were sold downtown in the 1st quarter of 2010 alone. And that is in the current climate where you’re screaming about 12% unemployment. The overwhelming majority of people out of work are at the lower end of the pay scale. I don’t think waitresses, housekeepers, etc being out of work is going to stop people from buying luxury downtown condos.
When you look at the unemployment numbers you see that unemployment rate among people with a bachelors degree is less than 5%. Conversely when you look at the unemployment rate in the higher income brackets it is again less than 5%. Who do you think is living and renting in downtown? Then when you look at foreclosure filling statistics from last year when Miami-dade was averaging over 6000 monthly fillings, downtown was only averaging about 160.
“Too bad for all you suckers waiting on the sidelines. You missed the bus.”
You seem to deal in absolutes. Everything is either black or white to you when in reality most of the world is gray. Obviously you don’t have to buy at the absolute bottom. As long as prices aren’t dropping just about anytime is a good time to buy depending on your personal circumstances. But in all fairness I think its pretty obvious that IF you wanted and had the capital to buy right now, there are some deals that you could have gotten in 2009 that you can’t get in 2010. The Marina Blue was a prime example. Bulk buyers purchased units in mid 2009 and these units are now selling at a higher price now. Pulling the trigger last year could have easily save you tens of thousands of dollars.
Months ago I made the claim that if you had the capital 2009 was a great time to buy and most ridiculed that statement. Now months later the public records show that bulk buyers are making a 20%, 30%, 40% profit in less than a year. People like DJ pulled the trigger and bought a great unit and now similar units are selling for tens of thousands more than what he bought his for.
So you can make all the smart remarks you want but that doesn’t change the fact that real investors are out there making money while the people sitting on the sidelines aren’t.
Gixxer 1000,
Again another great post #7,
I myself have seen that the prices that the developer/starwood are closing units for in my Infinity Building has went up from last year when I bought my condo from the developer/Starwood.
Last month, in March the developer/Starwood sold 4 units excatly like them (however these 4 were are lower floors) to an investor.
The Investor paid $30,000 more per unit then I did. I am an end user and I am on the highest floor that my unit is built on.
I was shocked. I was told that the deevloper/Starwood is in no hurry to sell out the building since they have a interest free loan from FDIC. Also I was told that they want to sell units around the $250 or more per foot mark.
So maybe you are correct that the bottom has hit in 2009, however like you said only time will tell and we should know by the end of this year if the bottom was hit in 2009 or not.
Another thing I have noticed in March (via condoreports) that other condo units in other middle of road buildings like mine in the brickell area are closing for around 300 per square foot. These building are the Plaza, a couple of others. Icon Tower 1 (not the Icon victory hotel tower) is closing Alot of units for around 400 per foot.
So I have not seen that crazy ACE prediction that condos as a whole will be selling for $125 per foot.
Keep up all the good posts – It will be a very sad day when you get too busy with school, etc, that you will not have the time to post your comments on this site.
PS – It’s a perfect day in Miami, I am on the balcony working on my laptop enjoying my view and the day. (I finally rec’d my free wireless router from Comcast!)
“Keep up all the good posts – It will be a very sad day when you get too busy with school, etc, that you will not have the time to post your comments on this site.”
That is quite possibly the funniest thing I’ve ever read.
Yes, indeed, it will be a very sad day. I get choked up just thinking about it.
Drew,
GROW UP!
this Gixxer guy is trying to educate us and all you do is to be negative towards him,
Drew,
don’t grow up!!!
Stay small and stupid.
This blog needs at least one village idiot to entertain the rest of us…
Gixxer 1000 — I keep asking and you keep not answering: If the Miami job market is so strong, and if Miami has anywhere from 250,000 to 500,000 “professionals,” as you’ve repeatedly claimed, could you please explain why the piddly 30,000 new Miami condos built during the boom STILL haven’t sold out (or, for that matter, why they didn’t sell out a year ago)?
By the way, I read that the latest downtown survey shows that the occupancy rate at the downtown condos went from 68% a year ago to 74% today. That hardly seems like a big boom in the local r.e. market.
Joe,
I never said Miami’s job market was strong. I’m simply saying that Miami has a similar percentage of professional jobs as other major cities. The problem with Miami isn’t professional jobs its middle class jobs. Miami seems to have a lot of people at the top and a lot at the bottom. It definitely is a problem. But if you’re a professional and you’re looking at these condos why would you care??
Use common sense. The approximately 250,000 professionals didn’t move to Miami over the last decade, the majority of them were already here and living somewhere. The 23,000 (not 30,000) condos built during the boom was obviously the result of over speculation. This is why its going to take time for these condos to be absorbed. There was already enough housing for these professionals before the boom. Which is why you see downtown growing at the expense of other areas. Again when you look the specific zip codes you see that Brickell is increasing in price while other areas are still decreasing.
You make it seem as though these professionals have no choice where they want to live except in these condos. There are over 850,000 housing units in Miami-Dade. Professionals have a lot more options than just these condos.
“By the way, I read that the latest downtown survey shows that the occupancy rate at the downtown condos went from 68% a year ago to 74% today. That hardly seems like a big boom in the local r.e. market.”
Then obviously you didn’t read the surveys that well. The occupancy rate went from 68% in May 2009 to 74% at the end of December 2009 (not now) when the survey was conducted. If you continue at the same rate then the occupancy rate then downtown would be fully occupied in two years. And jump ahead to today and we know that units are selling at an even faster pace. Then you add the fact that the survey clearly shows prices are going up, in a market where pretty much everywhere else prices are not.
Gixxer 1000 — Where do you see rock-solid proof that prices are rising? As someone else mentioned, an official realtor group released info. showing year-over-year DECLINES in Miami condo pricing. There seems to be about a 10 or 15 percentage point difference between the realtors’ numbers and the ones you keep using.
Beyond that, your answer above re: professionals and housing wasn’t one of your better efforts on this site. Again, if there are 250,000 to 500,000 “professionals” in Miami, and if only 23,000 new condos units were built during the boom, then these condos should have flown off the MLS and sold out long ago.
Perhaps it’s just your lack of true Miami knowledge/expertise bubbling to the surface again, but if you think there were 250,000 to 500,000 professional-caliber housing units in Miami prior to the boom, you’re crazy. Pre-boom, there was almost no decent housing stock in downtown Miami for downtown workers/professionals to occupy, and the 23,000 new condos represents just 4.5 to 9% of the “professionals” in Miami (according to your numbers, anyway). So again, what gives? Why haven’t those professionals snapped up all 23,000 new Miami condos, so they can live closer to work (which is the trend just about everywhere else on the planet)?
Drew,
you can grow up now,
we have a worthy substitute called Joe.
Joe apparently doesn’t know that out of those 23000 condos (not 30000 that are stuck in Joe’s mind) only 6600 were left on developers’ books at the end of March 2010, and will only be 6360 left one week from now, if the sales pace continues at 240 condos/ month.
But of course Joe is totally clueless that condos are selling at about 12 per business day, because Joe lives in an eco chamber where he only listens to the sound of his own voice.
Keep it up, Joe.
The world populated by intelligent folks only would be unbearable.
Anyone else think that Gixxer and F-35 are the same person?
The only reason that the units are selling is that the prices are coming down. At a sales pace of 240 a month there is over a 26 month supply, and that doesn’t include resales and shadow inventory coming onto the market.
With rising interest rates and end to government incentives, my guess is that we are still looking at a downward price trend.
BillP — I’ve been starting to wonder the same thing about Gixxer 1000 and F-35.
——
F-35 — Like your alter ego Gixxer 1000, you’re missing the point: If there have been 250,000 to 500,000 “professionals” in Miami right along — i.e., from before the boom, thru the bust, and now into the recovery — why the hell has it taken YEARS to sell just 23,000 units? If Miami really has such a strong job market (see Gixxer 1000’s recent posts about incomes, unemployment numbers, etc.) and 250,000 to 500,000 professionals, why didn’t the 23,000 new condos sell out 1-2 years ago, without the need for ANY out of state, foreign, investor, etc., buyers? As I said above, there sure as hell weren’t 250,000 to 500,000 professional-caliber housing units in Miami before the boom, so what gives?
in the past, there has been alot of talk on this board regarding foreign buyers-Europeans and Latin Americans-keeping the Miami real estate afloat. anybody know what the recent activity is on the foreign front? things seem to be getting very messy with the Euro and Greece-curious if it has an effect over here yet.
BillP,
if there is a downward trend, feel free to back it up with stats. Oh, sorry, I forgot, you can’t… wishful thinking is all you”ve got left.
Joe,
First, you completely make up the number (30000 condos) while accusing Gixxer 1000 of doing it, then you say that just because those condos aren’t selling as fast as you think they should, that confirms that Miami doesn’t have 250 000 professionals. That’s ridiculous. Those 23000 condos will be gone in 2 years at present tempo. I say that given the scale of overbuilding that took place, that’s really fast uptake. You can try spinning it all you want, but Gixxer 1000 already ventured into this matter often enough to make you look pretty foolish. I don’t have to repeat it. I have only one question. How many “professionals” do you believe Miami has?
F-35, the 30,000 number is not imaginary, it has been reported many times here and in other media outlets that over 30,000 units were built in the downtown area in the past past few years. i have noticed in the past year or so, since there was such a serious threat of oversupply to the price, this number has been getting cut. is the reduction due to fact or convenience? not sure. also, do you think the same developer rate will continue as foreclosures and short sales continue to flood the market? check out the building listings. filled with short sales, and more seem to appear every day? will this outstrip the reduction in developer supply when they banks realize they need to sell under the developer price to move a used product?
seems to me bulk sales and people rushing in to get the tax break….also
investors believing the bottom is in -causing the increase in activity
however, prices over the next few years will head lower,
gables,
Yes the 30,000 number is imaginary. The exact number of condos built DOWNTOWN during the boom is 22,079, with another 879 due to come on line. That’s a grand total of 22,958 which is why every reputable source usually says about 23,000 condos. I don’t know where you and Joe keep getting this 30,000 number from. You’ve created an additional 7,000 condos that do not exist. Even Joe realized that I’m right which is why he switched to the 23,000 number after reading my post.
I can provide a link that details every single building and every singly unit adding up to the 22,958 if you’d like.
Additional numbers regarding condos downtown:
“Between 1963 and 2002, developers constructed 11,500 units in the Greater Downtown Miami market. During the boom years of 2003 to 2010, more than 22,200 new units were added, nearly tripling the total inventory in Greater Downtown Miami.”
So basically there were 33,700 units built from 1963 and now. I think its obvious were only talking about the 22,079 built since 2003.
Good call on F-35 as Gixxer 1000’s alter ego. Upon further analysis, I agree. Note that F-35 did not refute the allegation above.
Gixxer 1000 refrains from the personal insults and nastiness in order to maintain an appearance of (perceived) legitimacy and (perceived) respect. So F-35 has been created in order to defend Gixxer’s noble work and hurl nasty comments at others. Genius.
Besides, there’s no way more than one jacka*s would ever choose to use a motorcycle and a fighter jet as their username, so it must be the same person.
No were not the same person. I try to refrain from the nastiness because it has nothing to do with the market which is my only concern here. But through observation maybe Drew and Joe are the same person. I mean, can there really be TWO people who are completely misinformed??? Lucas clearly has the ability to stop me from posting as someone else if he want’s to. He could have simply gotten rid of me when he stopped all the other nonsense. I personally would like nothing more than Lucas to step in and set the record straight so that we can keep the center of attention on the actual market and information based on it. You guys disagree with both the U.S. bureau and labor statistics and the IRS that there are 250,000 professionals. Fine. But attacking me as being F-35 adds no value to the discussion.
Both of you seem to focus your time and attention on attacking me instead of supplying any actual facts. Why do you even care what I say. If I’m wrong then I’m wrong. But from my perspective when you look at people who are actually in position to invest bulk buyers and people like DJ and Owneratinfinity, it seems like they’re doing a lot better then the losers who keep hoping they’re going to get a condo for free. Even you friend Renter Tom packed up and left.
Other people have defended me here as well. I guess they are also my alter egos. I have divulged plenty of information about myself. I have been honest that I’m just a guy planning to go to grad school and these are only my observation. I don’t profess to be a market guru, these are just my observations. I’m sorry that the presentation of actually facts offends the two of you so much. To be honest it really doesn’t matter that much to me. As I have said before I would not mind being wrong. Cheaper prices only means that I’ll be able to buy more. But I’m not going to convince myself that something is true so I can feel better. That’s usually what losers do.
This seems like a great unit. If it was just a bit farther south (say 80th st. or below), it would definately spark my interest.
Gixxer 1000 said: “Both of you seem to focus your time and attention on attacking me instead of supplying any actual facts.”
Melodramatic much? I’ve spent zero time “attacking” you personally. I *have* attacked some of your conclusions, but that’s sort of the point of a discussion thread, isn’t it?
Back on topic, does your “more than 22,200 condos built since 2003” number include condo conversions or is that just a reflection of new construction? There were many thousands of condo conversions in Miami.
If the “30,000 condos” number is wrong, it’s wrong, but as gables said above, 30,000 is the number that’s been in use in the Miami market for the past 5 years or more. Perhaps 7,000 condos never made it to market, perhaps it was just fuzzy math all along, but 30,000 is the number I’ve been hearing since early in the boom.
Joe, admit it. its over. your teams time has come and gone.