Premium Views from Plaza on Brickell
May 5, 2008 by Lucas Lechuga
I had the opportunity last week to also show a few condo units at Plaza on Brickell offering their best views. The pictures that I took were shot from the 10 and 11 lines in the 851 Tower located at 950 Brickell Bay Drive from the 45th floor.
As you can see, the views at Plaza on Brickell differ from those that you'll find in many of the new condo buildings in the Arts District or Park West in that the city views are much pronounced. It goes nicely with the gorgeous view of Biscayne Bay. The best of both worlds!
It was pretty amazing to overlook Brickell Key and see Miami Beach and the Atlantic Ocean in the distance. I don't think I've ever captured Brickell Key quite like this. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to fit Asia into the picture.
The condos that I showed are called "sky residences". They are premium units with 10-foot ceilings, upgraded appliances and a Jacuzzi tub in the master bathroom.
I know I’m in the minority on this, but if I were to grab a very high floor, I’d prefer a unit like this away from the water facing East to get a view of the water + stuff.
A view of water + more water and then some more water is not too exciting.
Looks like a beautiful flat and great views. How much is it? How many SF?
At least $350 + sq ft
Great view, great unit, great location
Is it me, or do these kitchens already look stylized and dated. Its always the same granite countertops, stainless steel fridge and frosted glass. I mean, its nice and all, but there’s no originality. I’m getting the feeling we’re looking at our generation’s version of olive green and harvest gold… and there’s a lot of it.
And JL, I hear ya, but having nothing but water is pretty boring at night when all you see is oceans of darkness. A city exposure, especially one like Miami with lots of lit buildings, makes for a better nighttime view… which is pretty much when most people in this town will view it anyways since when the sun’s up they’re either still sleeping it off or in the office.
yeah the upgraded unit is almost the exact replica of 500 brickell units… same appliances… but the view of brickell key, is the sh*t
Gorgeous kitchen
Let not forget there are tons of condos in this development, and nearly all are condo flippers. Many of these chaps will have little to no holding power, and there will be lots of true bankrupcy’s in my opinion. Also, it has a view of the water, it’s not on the water, big difference. This is located in the foreclosure district.
This is yet another very nice Related group project.
I chose to go with a proven, financially secure quality developer (Related)…probably the strongest developer in town with the best reputation for building projects and should weather the downturn without going bankrupt…….I’m confident this well-located (along with 500 Brickell) project will hold its value whereas shoddy construction at places like Sail, Vue, NeoVertika, Wind and Midtown shouldn’t hold up as well…
Are these condops really selling at 350/sqft? Will this hold for the next several months?
Miami 2008…
Try to go buy one for less than 350 sq ft with the same floor level, views, etc, and let me know….
Well, I definatley want to purchase a unit by years end or early next year. I prefer Emerald at Brickell, but it is out of my budget. That is why I was asking if prices will hold…
prices won’t “hold” in any of these brickell buildings. 350 sq/ft in plaza is no longer a reality if you want to sell your place today.
yeah let’s hope that there’s no water leakage in this building like there was in Related’s 50 biscayne project only a couple of weeks ago. What does a condo on the 45th floor with these views go for??
BTW jcrimes, my friend has a similar unit posted here at 851 plaza. He’s gotten 2 offers in the past 2 weeks right around 400 sq ft.
I’ve seen 2 bedrooms 1400 SqFt Condos go for aboiut $340,000 at the Plaza so that is about $240 a foot in mid to high floors, what floor do these sky residences start?
Prices at the plaza are gonna drop like a brick, you have 1000 units. can you just imagine the chaos of people once its occupied? BUT for the units on high floors with views like that…I think they will be ok, that is a sick view.
Per the communication above, they start at the 45th floor.
Alejandro Diaz, can you send me the link where you saw $340k, that would be a steal if what you say is true.
Ed said: “This is yet another very nice Related group project.
I chose to go with a proven, financially secure quality developer (Related)…probably the strongest developer in town with the best reputation for building projects and should weather the downturn without going bankrupt…….I’m confident this well-located (along with 500 Brickell) project will hold its value….”
PUT DOWN THE KOOL-AID!
Ed said: “This is yet another very nice Related group project.
I chose to go with a proven, financially secure quality developer (Related)…probably the strongest developer in town with the best reputation for building projects and should weather the downturn without going bankrupt…….I’m confident this well-located (along with 500 Brickell) project will hold its value….”
PUT DOWN THE KOOL-AID! Unfortunately, I know of at least ten buyers at the “let’s build another excess building!” known as 500 Brickell who are in the process of drafting “Sorry, but we are “walking” letters.
Miake me sick to say a couple of them are partially mine.
Ed, you need a reality check. Since summer 2007, RCRS has had at least 200 units upo for resale. The “cheapest” 1 Beds. were $279,000; last month that dropped to $220,000. In 2005, they were banging people for $350,000+ for the identical units.
Today, along with the Closing Notices, RCRS is pounding buyers over the head trying to get them to sign “Resale” and “Rental” contracts. I guess they, like you, think their sh*t doesn’t stink and that “you” would have to be a Mata Hari not to close on “your new home”.
IMO, they won’t reach a 50% closing rate on 500 Brickell.
I’m a resident at Plaza (renting, thankfully so.) The kitchen isn’t really laid out well for cooking. (sink needs a hose or something with directional spray.) also, the garage is very narrow and hard to get in to. have to take an alley and make a sharp turn. don’t know why the couldn’t just empty out onto brickell bay drive. okay when place is 15% occupied, will be a nightmare if the place ever fills up. also, at current occupancy I fear to think what will happen to services when the HOA takes over from developer.
apart from this, location and views cannot be beat. and the 10th floor pool deck is to die for!
Un-related,
No reality check needed.
As an end-user, let me repeat, END USER, who got a resale at 500 Brickell for and am looking to stay in the building mid to long term. I’ll say it again, I am confident that this building, along with Plaza at Brickell, will hold its value.
Sure prices have dropped, but I’m not concerned. I didn’t get greedy and buy multiple units as an investment as you did, but I bought there to live and enjoy my home and watch the benefits of long-term appreciation.
“Put down the Kool-Aid”, you say? You might want to ask yourself the same question after following everyone’s lead in buying multiple units.
ED, have to agree with you!!
That whole area with Brickell on the River, 500 Brickell, Icon, as well as the new office development will be a very nice area to live in once everything is completed.
You also have Brickell Tennis next door…
and you have the new Epicure, Whole Foods, LA fitness, movie theatres, new office developments (3 under construction now), Balans Mary Brickell Village, Sushi Siam, on and on and on…all within walking distance….I’m actually looking to buy another property there (500 Brickell or Plaza)
Ed, dont forget Capital Grill next door, Big Fish, Tobacco Road, Endochine, Blue Oyster, etc, etc, the list goes on and on, hard to find another spot with so many restaurants within walking distance……
Metrover Mover next door, to jump to Heat Games without worrying about parking….
Ed or ANYBODY ELSE,
If you are for real with the I’m actually looking to buy another property there (500 Brickell or Plaza), I will make you an offer.
You can buy from me the “purchasing entities” for a discount of $40,000 per unit. That way, you can save $40,000 off of the original 2005 cost of the units and there will be NO RE commissions involved. You probably will also be able to save the .75% transfer fee as the entities are the original buyers.
I have the condo “books” and the closing info.
If anyone is interested, post an e-mail address and I will get back to you ASAP.
Un-related,
what is the average sq ft price when you mention 2005 costs…
Un-related,
Takin my time, no rush at all to buy…waiting to see prices go even lower….but interested in a 2/2 in either Plaza or 500. [email protected]
JGM,
One faces East (on Brickell) and is middle unit on higher floor. (1051 ft.) Paid right at $350 sq.ft. My “offer” would make it $314. sq.ft.
The other one faces South in East Tower on higher floor. (925 sq.ft.) Paid $342 sq.ft. My “offer” would make it $300 sq.ft.
Hope that helps.
Ed,
Sorry, but these are both 1 bed.
movin’ metro : I am also a resident at Plaza on Brickell. Tip: Sink does have a hose. If you pull down on the faucet, it has a pull out hose. Very convenient.
People can’t be this dumb! The people “interested in buying” are all RE Agents. Ed, how will your price hold up when people have to factor in a 20% down and 10% interest rates to make their monthly payment? By medium to long term you better mean 10-15 years. Hey, I could have bought Apple stock at $12/share in 1989 or I could have bought it for that price in 2003. I think waiting is better.
to renting at plaza on brickell: thanks, neighbor! can’t wait to get home and try that out. now my only gripe about the place is the garage. or am I missing something there, too?
Is the Skyline at Mary Brickell and Capital at Brickell Condos still in progress? What other new condos are in this area or upcoming?
Some of the posts here are HE-LARIOUS.
Reading all the fussy gay realtors (I am saying that lovingly but truthfully) try to pump these units on here between hair appointments and brunch is classic.
As others have pointed out in the thread these units are all owned by flippers. (See MiamiCondoFiasco.com for Zach’s story with Plaza on Brickell)
These are very nice, beautiful units but when all is said and done in 2010-2012 these units will fall to under 200 per square foot and anyone who catches a falling knife know will be like the guy who bought pets.com when it was 1/2 off thinking he got a bargain.
The entire Miami Condo market is still 200% over-valued and it is going to crash much, much further now that “flip that condo: Miami Edition” has been cancelled.
The url for the above is condofiasco.com, OK, so I went to the site… can somebody give me the Cliff’s notes on the guy’s situation?
This was an op ed in todays journal fairly. Well reasoned arguments
The Housing Crisis Is Over
By CYRIL MOULLE-BERTEAUX
May 6, 2008; Page A23
The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.
How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won’t happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor.
Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50% and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982.
Furthermore, residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever. So what’s going to stop the housing decline? Very simply, the same thing that caused the bust: affordability.
The boom made housing unaffordable for many American families, especially first-time home buyers. During the 1990s and early 2000s, it took 19% of average monthly income to service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased. By 2005 and 2006, it was absorbing 25% of monthly income. For first time buyers, it went from 29% of income to 37%. That just proved to be too much.
Prices got so high that people who intended to actually live in the houses they purchased (as opposed to speculators) stopped buying. This caused the bubble to burst.
Since then, house prices have fallen 10%-15%, while incomes have kept growing (albeit more slowly recently) and mortgage rates have come down 70 basis points from their highs. As a result, it now takes 19% of monthly income for the average home buyer, and 31% of monthly income for the first-time home buyer, to purchase a house. In other words, homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s. Numerous households that had been priced out of the market can now afford to get in.
The next question is: Even if home sales pick up, how can home prices stop falling with so many houses vacant and unsold? The flip but true answer: because they always do.
In the past five major housing market corrections (and there were some big ones, such as in the early 1980s when home sales also fell by 50%-60% and prices fell 12%-15% in real terms), every time home sales bottomed, the pace of house-price declines halved within one or two months.
The explanation is that by the time home sales stop declining, inventories of unsold homes have usually already started falling in absolute terms and begin to peak out in “months of supply” terms. That’s the case right now: New home inventories peaked at 598,000 homes in July 2006, and stand at 482,000 homes as of the end of March. This inventory is equivalent to 11 months of supply, a 25-year high – but it is similar to 1974, 1982 and 1991 levels, which saw a subsequent slowing in home-price declines within the next six months.
Inventories are declining because construction activity has been falling for such a long time that home completions are now just about undershooting new home sales. In a few months, completions of new homes for sale could be undershooting new home sales by 50,000-100,000 annually.
Inventories will drop even faster to 400,000 – or seven months of supply – by the end of 2008. This shift in inventories will have a significant impact on prices, although house prices won’t stop falling entirely until inventories reach five months of supply sometime in 2009. A five-month supply has historically signaled tightness in the housing market.
Many pundits claim that house prices need to fall another 30% to bring them back in line with where they’ve been historically. This is usually based on an analysis of house prices adjusted for inflation: Real house prices are 30% above their 40-year, inflation-adjusted average, so they must fall 30%. This simplistic analysis is appealing on the surface, but is flawed for a variety of reasons.
Most importantly, it neglects the fact that a great majority of Americans buy their houses with mortgages. And if one buys a house with a mortgage, the most important factor in deciding what to pay for the house is how much of one’s income is required to be able to make the mortgage payments on the house. Today the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 5.7%. Back in 1981, the rate hit 18.5%. Comparing today’s house prices to the 1970s or 1980s, when mortgage rates were stratospheric, is misguided and misleading.
This is all good news for the broader economy. The housing bust has been subtracting a full percentage point from GDP for almost two years now, which is very large for a sector that represents less than 5% of economic activity.
When the rate of house-price declines halves, there will be a wholesale shift in markets’ perceptions. All of a sudden, the expected value of the collateral (i.e. houses) for much of the lending that went on for the past decade will change. Right now, when valuing the collateral, market participants including banks are extrapolating the current pace of house price declines for another two to three years; this has a significant impact on the amount of delinquencies, foreclosures and credit losses that lenders are expected to face.
More home sales and smaller price declines means fewer homeowners will be underwater on their mortgages. They will thus have less incentive to walk away and opt for foreclosure.
A milder house-price decline scenario could lead to increases in the market value of a lot of the securitized mortgages that have been responsible for $300 billion of write-downs in the past year. Even if write-backs do not occur, stabilizing collateral values will have a huge impact on the markets’ perception of risk related to housing, the financial system, and the economy.
We are of course experiencing a serious housing bust, with serious economic consequences that are still unfolding. The odds are that the reverberations will lead to subtrend growth for a couple of years. Nonetheless, housing led us into this credit crisis and this recession. It is likely to lead us out. And that process is underway, right now.
Mr. Moulle-Berteaux is managing partner of Traxis Partners LP, a hedge fund firm based in New York.
POB
doesn’t really mater what offers are coming in. in the coming years, brickell in general, won’t be a 350 sq ft neighborhood. yeah, there will be limited exceptions, on a unit by unit basis, but simple fact is, the inventory levels, coupled with the current “demand” at the current prices, supports an argument for a massive decrease.
FIU is a little more articulate…
http://media.miamiherald.com/smedia/2008/05/06/16/MiamiDadeHousingSTUDY_Draft6-05_02_08.source.prod_affiliate.56.pdf
i think it would be carelss to apply Mr. B’s arguments to the mimai market…a total outlier in the boom. think about it, what rational explanation is there for all the building that went on when historical demand never justified it? really, don’t give me the whole miami is suddenly a cool place to be. that’s bs. miami’s been a hip place to be for decades (hell, will smith welcome to miami tune is a decade old).
Miami/South FL and Las Vegas should never be lumped in with the broader market. We could go into a black hole and the world would never notice.
Would those of you who are renting at Plaza mind saying what you are currently paying? Thanks.
Great question Mark… Anybody pick up a lease recently in this area (rents have been going down across the board at a steady clip from last year). Don’t tell the phantom Brickell bulk buying smart money vulture funds that… or else they’re going to have to break out the calculator again and find more bagholders… I mean investors to make up the difference.
Craigslist
miami.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=plaza+brickell&minAsk=min&maxAsk=max&bedrooms=
miami.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=brickell&minAsk=1500&maxAsk=3000&bedrooms=
There are a couple of differences between pervious busts and this one. First off all though the % decline may be similar to pervious busts and now home prices are finally in line with the proper historical % of income, however a major difference is the 0 down or low down payment loans that have occurred that was never before seen. People that bought in and around the peek with a low down payment are more likely to short sale and foreclose then people that bought in the peek in pervious busts that had 20% or more down. Add the fact that many people obtained sub prime mortgages which to me means 1 of 2 things either 1) they have bad credit and could care less, thus are less morally inclined to keep the property and save their credit 2) they have bad credit because they cant afford the payments, these people will foreclose because they really cant afford to pay the monthly payments regardless of wanting to preserve their credit. People are not hesitating to walk away from there obligations this is a real problem for the real estate market because when you have a foreclosure property listed right next to yours for 30% less guess which one will sell. Further more Miami and Vegas can not compare to other parts of the country or state for that matter. In areas that had so much over building the prices will fall harder and longer. Although both Miami and Vegas are nice places to live and have stronger demand then other parts of the country there simply is far to great of supply that will over compensate for the demand. The reason is it takes less then a year to build houses, town houses, or low story complex’s which was what was being built everywhere else. In Miami we have these 50+ story buildings which take over 3 years to build, so when things slowed down you had other parts of the county stop building 2 years ago here in Miami you still have projects coming to market that were started during the boom. I stayed an optimist for as long as I could. I had to, I had a lot invested but I saw first hand what the prices are going for. At this point I see prices 50% what they were in the peek of 2005, how much lower can they go is anyone’s guess but they will go lower. Prices will eventually go up they always will and rates are very attractive right now but as they say on this blog the “smart money” will wait out for the bottom.
That Cyril Moulle-Berteaux guy who wrote the “Housing Crisis is Over” article is just another housing cheerleader douche. How many of these idiots have we heard from over the past couple of years? Surprised these guys get any attention anymore. Lots of flaws in his arguments:
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/05/is-housing-crisis-over.html
I took a tour of 900 Biscayne Bay today. Fantastic amenities! I’ll post the pictures that I took later this week.
The problem with comparing the Miami and Las Vegas condo market with a National Housing Average (and is being highlighted by the foreclosure rates) is that nationally, you are talking about primary single family residences while in Miami and Las Vegas, you are talking about 2nd home condos in large part.
The dynamics at play are very different between the 2. People will fight and pay up to stay in their primary home, while they will readily walk away from an investment gone bad. Since the 80’s, there’s never been a stretch of time where an investment in Miami was ever bad till now. People talking about the Miami housing market being strong and bouncing back is just conjecture. This is the first time the housing market’s been tested in the past 20 years. Speculation does not equate to underlying strength in housing demand. Miami didn’t do so hot in the 80’s. Let’s see if 2010 is just a repeat of the 80’s.
Crude oil jumped over the $122 mark — before settling at a record $121.84 a barrel. Traders say the next benchmark is $150 and Goldman Sachs — oh yes they did — went there, saying oil could reach $200 a barrel
My friends… We’re Doomed
Are they still trying to price Marquis above 900? Seems it should be the other way.
jcrimes, nice white paper. Makes you kind of wonder what is going to happen here in miami-dade
when gas hits 7 dollars per gallon with our 26K median annual salary. Ironically, I think that
7 dollar a gallon(200 dollars per barrel oil) helps the brickell condo market more than it hurts because more people will want to live closer to work.
The MIAMI housing market isn’t bottoming right now.
Here is a 6 months old article by Tom Dyson. IMHO the article reflects the current state of Miami’s RE market.
Sandpapering the Vultures to Death
By Tom Dyson
October 22, 2007
The vultures are circling Miami…
Matthew Martinez is the point man for a large private-equity fund from Connecticut. His mission: Fly to Miami with $200 million and buy cheap condos. “We’re looking at purchases of $7 million and up, all-cash,” he says.
Jack McCabe is the person you always see quoted in newspaper articles about the Miami condo meltdown. He has a vulture fund, too. It is eight figures in size. He calls it “the opportunity fund.”
Peter Zalewski has found a profitable niche. He runs a real estate brokerage called “Condo Vultures.” It’s a registered trademark. He has a website and a blog. He’s aiming to corner the market in Miami bottom feeding.
“Our group, for example, has been contacted by more than 40 different groups,” says Zalewski. “Four are from abroad. As different as they are, all of the funds are ready, willing, and able to invest. All want to buy all-cash, and close quickly.”
“[Last week] I was brought a 330-unit bulk deal out of a 750-unit project in West Palm Beach,” said Zalewski. “I sent it out to 29 hedge funds and private-equity funds and, within 45 minutes, I had four responses.”
My view: These condo vultures are going to lose all their money. Here’s why…
Last year, Steve wrote about Bob Farrell’s theory of the “guillotine and sandpaper.”
When a bull market ends, first you get the guillotine. Prices plummet. It happens so fast, you don’t know what hit you. The market blows right through stop losses. By the time you’ve come to your senses, you might be down 50% or 75%…
At this point, the bottom seekers pile into the market. We’re getting close to this point in Miami.
The bounce is just as violent. Now the bottom feeders and the sellers are in a tug of war. They are debating… distributing… arguing… everyone wonders if the market has reached a bottom or not. It generates volatility. You’ll see lots of debate in the press, too. The market stays in the limelight, even though it has collapsed.
Both groups are wrong. They forgot about the sandpaper.
Between the guillotine stage and the start of the new bull market, you get the sandpaper.
In the sandpaper stage, the market forms a range. The excitement of the crash slowly drains away. People get bored. It wears everyone down as the market drifts slowly lower. Inflation, taxes, interest payments, and fees erode investments. Eventually folks throw in the towel and find another market to gamble on.
This is the true contrarian buy point… when no one cares anymore.
Sandpaper can last a long time. Gold formed an incredible bubble in 1980. Then it burst, falling from $850 to $450 in just 10 weeks. That was the guillotine. Then, it traded between $300 and $500 for 20 years. That was the sandpaper. Yes… it took 20 years to wash all interest away. By 2000, gold was at $250 and most investors had forgotten gold ever existed. They were busy gambling on tech stocks.
That’s when the new bull market in gold started.
So how will we know when it’s time to buy Miami condos again? Homeless people will have invaded downtown. The place will look seedy and run down. Mention your interest in buying a condo at a dinner party and everyone will laugh at you… or quietly change the subject.
We’re probably still 10 years away. Real estate moves at a glacial pace.
In sum, bull markets do not start after the guillotine. They start after the sandpaper. The condo vultures in Miami may think they’re acting smart by buying distressed properties. I bet they get sandpapered to death.
Good investing,
Tom