Closings at Brickell City Centre Reach Tower: How are They Faring and What Percentage are Hitting the Market For Rent?
May 14, 2016 by Lucas Lechuga
According to public records, closings for condos in the Reach tower at Brickell City Centre began on April 11, 2016. Since then, as of this past Friday, 82 of its 390 total units (21 percent) have been recorded as closed. The 82 closed units amount to $64M in closed sales, averaging $619 per square foot, and ranging from $532 to $674 per square foot. 
Of greater significance, to many at least, is not the percentage of units that have closed, but, rather, the percentage of closed units that are being converted to rentals. In other words, what percentage of the units at Brickell City Centre were purchased by investors versus end-users? That's a question that has crossed my mind a number of times in recent months, so I decided to do some investigative research. According to the MLS, 28 of the 82 recorded closed units (34 percent) have already been listed for rent (25 units available for rent + 3 units pending). If that percentage ends up holding true across both towers at Brickell City Centre (Reach and Rise), that will mean that roughly 265 units will end up hitting the market for rent soon after closing. However, it should be noted that Swire (the developer) appears to be closing lower floor units first. Of the 82 closed units, the majority of them are located below the 20th floor; the highest floor that a closed unit is located is the 30th. The Reach tower at Brickell City Centre is 43 stories high, as is the Rise tower. In my experience, investors tend to snatch up the lower floor units because they tend to bring the highest rate of return from an investment standpoint. As such, if we were to divide the tower in half, I would expect the bottom half to have more units owned by investors than the top half. With that being said, I do not expect the 34 percent rental-to-closing rate to hold true as closings continue. If I were to venture a guess, I would say that the rental-to-closing rate across both towers will end up being closer to 28 percent once everything is said and done. But we shall see, because I plan to report each month an update on closings, not only for Brickell City Reach and Rise, but for all recently completed condo developments. Back in 2007, 2008, and 2009 (during the last condo boom), I reported closings rates a lot. Consider this a reboot.
I’ve been in the condo rental business for a good part of my life in Miami.
Good caps and bad ones. For this type of new construction I don’t see ends meet for the investors if your looking for cash flow. If your looking for equity maintenance or some apreciation that could be another story. Maybe someone out there can share a BOE to see the numbers. I don’t have them on hand. It’s just an eyeballing.