Miami Condo Index – Brickell Key – September 2007

September 28, 2007

The Brickell Key Condo Index continues to represent the true condition of the condo market in Miami. Its counterpart, the Brickell Condo Index, has become the red-headed stepchild and has failed to provide any true insight into the state of the market.

Until the fraud in Brickell has been squashed, I would keep a closer eye on the Brickell Key Condo Index to better ascertain how progression towards the equilibrium of supply and demand is being achieved.

List prices have continued to fall in Brickell Key. This month, the average price per square foot of condos listed in Brickell Key fell to $505.30 from last month’s figure of $507.22. The weight-adjusted average dropped to $501.64 versus last month’s weight-adjusted average of $502.76.

The continued decline in list prices in Brickell Key is a good indication that sellers are finally “getting it”. If a condo owner is truly motivated to sell their condo then they should aggressively price their unit accordingly. Sellers that are priced in the middle or high end of the pack, and are waiting for the “right” buyer to come along, will save themselves, and their Realtor, time and effort by taking their condo off the market. Matters will only worsen once the new condo inventory hits the market and buyers are given more options. If you NEED to sell, then your one and only shot at it is now.

• Brickell Key One – 520 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $402.12
• Brickell Key Two – 540 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $479.79
• Carbonell – 901 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $576.81
• Courts Brickell Key – 801 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $471.70
• Courvoisier Courts – 701 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $470.16
• Isola – 770 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $527.82
• One Tequesta Point – 888 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $467.10
• St. Louis – 800 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $505.91
• Three Tequesta Point – 848 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $549.70
• Two Tequesta Point – 808 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $601.86

I was surprised to see that condos listed at Two Tequesta Point were priced over $50 per square foot higher than those listed at Three Tequesta Point. It didn’t make sense to me so I was compelled to investigate. A 2/2.5 listing at Two Tequesta Point immediately jumped out at me that was priced at $1.85M, or $1,042 per square foot. The condo was highly remodeled and looked fabulous, but not $1,000+ per square foot fabulous. In fact, a 2/2.5 seven floors higher in the same line is listed at $998,000. I’m pretty sure that the upgrades in the condo priced at $1.85M aren’t worth $852,000. This is a perfect example of a seller who is waiting for the “right” buyer to come along. Good luck!

The average price per square foot for condos listed at Isola also surprised me. I think we’ll see this number penetrate the $500 per square foot mark on the downside once more sellers of condos listed at Isola finally “get it”. I’m more impressed with St. Louis than I am Isola, but both will eventually have list prices well below $500 per square foot.

The average price per square foot of condos sold within the past six months has also dropped from last month’s average of $437.34 per square foot to this month’s average of $432.94 per square foot. The weight-adjusted average has fallen to $428.59 from last month’s figure of $433.97.

• Brickell Key One – 520 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $310.76
• Brickell Key Two – 540 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $401.79
• Carbonell – 901 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $502.63
• Courts Brickell Key – 801 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $439.35
• Courvoisier Courts – 701 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $429.45
• Isola – 770 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $444.28
• One Tequesta Point – 888 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $416.33
• St. Louis – 800 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $451.16
• Three Tequesta Point – 848 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $480.92
• Two Tequesta Point – 808 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $452.72

The following is for those of you have just discovered this blog. The first figure below, beside each building name, represents the total numbers of active listings in that building. The number to the right of that, in parentheses, is the number of currently listed condos in each building expressed as a percentage of the total number of condos. The third number represents the number of pending sales in the building while the fourth is the number of closed sales within the past month

• Brickell Key One – 20 (6.33%) | 4 | 0
• Brickell Key Two – 47 (11.90%) | 0 | 0
• Carbonell – 57 (20.07%) | 4 | 1
• Courts Brickell Key – 42 (13.17%) | 0 | 0
• Courvoisier Courts – 63 (23.16%) | 1 | 0
• Isola – 59 (19.67%) | 2 | 0
• One Tequesta Point – 22 (7.61%) | 2 | 0
• St. Louis – 9 (6.72%) | 0 | 0
• Three Tequesta Point – 28 (11.76%) | 0 | 0
• Two Tequesta Point – 26 (9.67%) | 2 | 2

There have been a total of three closed sales within the past month, which is a decline from last month’s total of four closed sales. The number of pending sales has also moved downward from 17 to 15. It appears that two of last month’s pending sales have reached the closing table within the past month, which indicates to me that there has only been one new condo under contract in Brickell Key within one month’s time. Only one condo in all of Brickell Key has been executed within the past month? That can’t be good. This is assuming that none of the pending sales ran into problems within the past month. Best-case scenario is that one contract within the past month has been executed in Brickell Key. The worst-case scenario is that none have been. One word comes to mind…”Holy-tamale-mother-of-god-this-is-one-bad-situation”.

Overall, the condos listed in Brickell Key represent 13.25% of the condos that reside in Brickell Key. That’s actually a relatively healthy figure. However, the figure that is not healthy is the “months of inventory”. Let’s assume an average of four closings per month, as we’ve seen. That means that if closings continued at the same pace and all inventory were to stop right now, it would take 7.77 years to absorb the present inventory. That’s not so good. Do you sellers get it yet?  I’m pretty sure that the buyers get it.