Brickell Condo Index – February 2009

February 20, 2009

A lot has changed since I last published the Brickell Condo Index three months ago.  Condo foreclosures have continued to hit the market, financing has become extremely difficult to obtain and a few bulk condo deals have closed in that time.  As a result, it should come as to no surprise that overall condo prices have continued to drop throughout Brickell within the past 3 months.  The data used to compile the statistics below was collected on February 18, 2008 from the MLS.  You may want to compare the following figures to those published three months ago in November 2008.  Also, be sure to view the charts towards the bottom of this post to see how much Brickell condo prices have changed within the past 15 months.

The average asking prices of the 18 condo developments that comprise the Brickell Condo Index is currently $401.30 per square foot.  This represents a 6.57 percent drop in average list prices over the past three months.

Average price per square foot of Brickell condos currently listed on the MLS:

• Atlantis on Brickell – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $300.29
• Brickell on the River North – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $304.52
• Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $470.58
• Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $387.41
• Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | $886.05
• Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $319.43
• Jade at Brickell Bay – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $576.33
• Latitude on the River – 185 SW 7 St | 331310 | $339.26
• Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $284.67
• One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $359.03
• Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $722.39
• Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $366.69
• Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $314.69
• The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $317.23
• The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $358.99
• The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $337.54
• Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $349.21
• Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $229.07

The average price of Brickell condos sold over the past six months has gone up 1.51 percent to $296.00 per square foot from November’s average of $291.59.  However, this is due to the fact that Four Seasons Residences had been excluded from the average in November due to no closings occurring within the previous six months.  Four Seasons Residences has been reincluded in this month’s index as a result of a condo closing in December 2008.  The average for Brickell condos sold over the past six months would have dropped 3.58 percent had it not been re-included.  With the exception of Bristol Tower, average sales prices for each of the other Brickell condo developments dropped since the November update.

Average price per square foot of Brickell condos sold in the MLS within the past six months:

• Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $228.95
• Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | $234.18
• Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $385.20
• Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $209.63
• Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | $518.62
• Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $263.68
• Jade – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $362.33
• Latitude on the River – 185 SW 7 St | 33130 | N/A
• Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $221.73
• One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $254.09
• Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $756.82
• Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $278.43
• Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | $201.59
• The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $188.28
• The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $228.61
• The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | N/A
• Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $256.71
• Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $147.18

Below you will find some additional statistics.  Click on the image to enlarge it.

The first column to the right of each condo development’s name is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, expressed as a percentage. An “N/A” is found next to Latitude on the River and The Palace since this percentage could not be computed as each building failed to have a closed sale within the past six months through the MLS.  A high percentage indicates that there is a large discrepancy between the average asking price for condos currently on the market and what has actually sold within the past six months.

The second column is the number of active listings in each condo development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those condo developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. This is typically one indication of a sound condo building. Bristol Tower, Four Seasons Residences, Imperial at Brickell, Latitude on the River, The Palace and Villa Regina are the condo buildings highlighted in green.  However, I think it’s too soon to use this rule of thumb for Latitude on the River.  It’s too new of a development.  Short-sales and foreclosures have just started to hit the market there.  The ones highlighted in red reveal those condo developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units. There’s definitely underlying risk in buying in these condo developments and I’d only advise buying in one of these if the price justifies the risk. As in the November update, Solaris at Brickell is the only condo developments highlighted in red.  This is usually a good indication that prices will fall further in future months.

The fourth column shows the number of condos currently pending sale.  There are currently a total of 81 pending sales in the 18 condo buildings represented in the Brickell Condo Index. I did not include pending sales that went pending before November 1, 2008.  The fifth column displays the number of closed condo sales within the past six months.  The 18 Brickell condo developments have had a total of 198 condos close within that time frame. The vast majority of these closings occurred in just a handful of the condo developments. Latitude on the River and The Palace were the only two condo buildings that haven’t had a condo close within the past six months.

The sixth column shows the difference in the average list prices from this month’s and November’s, expressed as a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green show those that showed an increase. Bristol Tower was the only condo development that had an increase in asking prices since November. In just three month’s time, average asking prices fell about 15 percent at Imperial at Brickell and Solaris at Brickell, 14 percent at Vue at Brickell and 10 percent at Brickell on the River.

The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from this month’s and November’s, expressed as a percentage. The Mark on Brickell saw the largest drop with a 20.95 percent decline. Brickell on the River, Emerald at Brickell, Imperial at Brickell and One Miami also had double digits drops.  Average sales prices at Santa Maria increased about 14 percent but it should be noted that only one closed sale occurred within the past six months.

I thought it would be interesting to see how prices compare now to those we saw a year ago.  Unfortunately, I didn’t publish a Brickell Condo Index 12 months ago.  However, I used data from the November 2007 Brickell Condo Index to create the charts below to compare current prices to those we saw 15 months ago.  Click on the images below to enlarge them.

(Below) Percentage Change in Average $/SqFt of List Prices Within 15 Months:

(Below) Percentage Change in Average $/SqFt of Sales Prices Within the Last 15 Months:

Keep in mind that condo prices in Miami peaked around the beginning of 2006.  The graphs above would be all the more shocking if we were to cross compare current prices to those we saw at that time.  By November 2007, Miami condo prices had already fallen significantly.

One positive thing to note is that the number of condos on the market in the condo buildings comprised in the Brickell Condo Index is down about 26 percent since November 2007.  (This excludes Latitude on the River which had not been included in the Brickell Condo Index at that time.)  Emerald at Brickell and Santa Maria are the only condo developments in the Brickell Condo Index that now have more condos listed than in November 2007.  To put this into perspective, the number of listed condos at Vue at Brickell 15 months ago represented a little over 24 percent of the total condos in the building. Current inventory at Vue at Brickell represents slightly more than 13 percent.